It seems unlikely that Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Keston Hiura will end up winning NL Rookie of the Year honors because New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, San Diego Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and Atlanta Braves right-hander Mike Soroka are all thriving as well, and they've gotten more of a chance to showcase their skills in the majors. However, this is a reminder that there are other rookies doing great things. Opportunity remains a key factor in their emergence.
Hiura, who I think we all knew would hit in the majors after he batted .375 at UC Irvine and .317 in the minors, is also hitting .317 in the majors through 133 plate appearances. His home run on Tuesday gives him four in July, along with a cool .391 batting average and four stolen bases in as many attempts. Sure, it's hard to view any other Brewers hitter fairly in the glare of outfielder Christian Yelich, but Hiura -- still available in more than 75% of ESPN standard leagues -- can clearly help out fantasy teams.
This has been a fun season for rookies, and more so than in most years, I believe. It should signal a change in the sport that young players should become trusted earlier. Hiura hit in the majors upon his first promotion, but he had to wait for veteran infielder Travis Shaw to fail to get another chance. That seemed wrong but, then again, Shaw did hit 30 home runs in each of the past two seasons. The streak ends this season. Hiura is better and perhaps big league teams will begin to promote prospects earlier, regardless of the financial aspects or veterans blocking the way. Can you imagine the Mets not having given Alonso a chance? He might hit 50 home runs!
Anyway, good for Hiura (and for fantasy managers) and his past few weeks of success. I had slight concerns about his walk rate but those are gone now. Hiura drew a pair of walks on Tuesday and, though the batting average might be a bit overblown thanks to a generous .414 BABIP, everything else checks out. He could be a .300 hitter with 25-homer pop who contributes double-digit stolen bases. I see a top-100 fantasy option for 2020.
Just for fun, here is my top 10 for rookie hitters in roto formats for the rest of the season. Perhaps your list is different. (Actually, I am sure of it.)
1. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres: He's hitting .333 and on pace for both 24 homers and steals in barely 100 games. This is a superstar and a potential second-round pick in our world in 2020. I mean it. I can't get enough.
2. Yordan Alvarez, OF, Houston Astros: He has power, batting average and a great lineup and clubhouse around him. He's been vastly underrated in fantasy. His batting average separates him from the next guy on the list.
3. Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets: We all love him, but some batting-average risk remains.
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays: Yes, he has disappointed, but it is easy to see the form of a .300-30-100 option here. Trade him if you must, but you know a monster September is possible.
5. Keston Hiura, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers: As I've noted, he's a five-category fantasy option. It would be nice if the team hit him higher in the order, but the Brewers are not lacking there, really.
6. Oscar Mercado, OF, Cleveland Indians: He and fellow Ohioan Nick Senzel are similar in that they should each reach double-digits home runs and steals. The difference is that Mercado bats second most of the time, so moving forward, he should score more runs.
7. Nick Senzel, 2B/OF, Cincinnati Reds: He's still a great talent and capable of big things in 2020 and beyond.
8. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals: Robles is still roughly on pace for a 20-20 season, though his plate discipline is so poor he might not hit .250 along the way. The future remains bright, however. And yes, we value stolen bases here. They matter, especially when there are so few of them.
9. Alex Verdugo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: Though he lacks the high-end power of some others, this left-handed hitter is safe against southpaws. He hits for average and scores runs.
10. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox: He seems headed for an IL stint today, but this is major power, even sans the batting average. Like, I could see 35 blasts in 2020, with 10 of them coming in any given month.
Just missed: Here come more power hitters, some with plate discipline concerns. In order, Rays infielder Brandon Lowe, Braves third baseman/outfielder Austin Riley, Red Sox infielder Michael Chavis, Marlins first baseman Garrett Cooper, Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker and Blue Jays infielder Cavan Biggio. Frankly, the case is easy for Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds over all of them, because he hits for average and is not stopping.
Also, keep an eye on the Blue Jays' Danny Jansen and the Diamondbacks' Carson Kelly, for catching is so devoid of depth in fantasy that a hot streak from either of these fellows could catapult them into top-10 consideration right away.
Tuesday takeaways
Seattle Mariners catcher Omar Narvaez smacked a pair of home runs and now has 16 on the season, tying him with Indians surprise Roberto Perez for fourth at the position. Wow. But OK, you go ahead and keep rostering Yadier Molina, Buster Posey, Mike Zunino, Austin Hedges and Austin Barnes. It's mid-July. I'm sure they'll turn their seasons around any day now.
Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper got the game-winning hit and now is on pace for 29 home runs, 114 runs batted in and 92 runs. He is the No. 18 outfielder on the Player Rater for the past 30 days and 23rd overall for 2019. OK, so he might not be a top-10 fantasy outfielder anymore, thanks to the batting average, lack of steals and, yeah, we expected at least 30 home runs. I grant you all that, but he is not the reason your team -- or his -- is not winning. Come on!
I thought of doing a blog on potential 30/30 players this season, because I think the achievement is valuable and rare. Jose Ramirez and Mookie Betts made it in 2018 but, prior to that, we need to go back to 2012 to find anyone. The problem is that only Christian Yelich seems ripe to get there. Perhaps Ronald Acuna Jr. as well. Yes, Ramirez was a 30/30 player last season. Life moves fast.
I really need St. Louis Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty to pitch like one over these final months. Tuesday was a good sign, though he still issued three walks against the Pirates. After Miles Mikolas went the distance in Monday's game, I am wondering a bit if this is Pirates-related. Josh Bell is hitting .220 since June began. That's not good.
Yes, that Logan Allen outing was so rough that I would move on from the Padres rookie left-hander. Just move on. Rookie hitters are so much safer.
Health report
OK, enough with Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter. He is not hitting 36 home runs again. He might not even get halfway there. Two IL stints in July? He can still haunt us if we cut him but now it seems unlikely. He has been dealing with physical woes all season.
Phillies outfielder Jay Bruce seems ticketed for a lengthy absence after leaving during an at-bat with an apparent oblique strain. One presumes Nick Williams (killing it at Triple-A Lehigh Valley) gets a legit chance to play regularly, but I just cannot get excited about this in fantasy -- or as a Phillies fan. Earlier this season I compared Williams, who hit for modest power last season but showed no plate discipline or anything else (especially defensively), to Texas Rangers disappointment Nomar Mazara, an annual hitter of exactly 20 home runs in an era where that number is, frankly, well beneath him. Now we hear the Rangers might farm out Mazara. It figures. I think Willie Calhoun might be better.
Closing time
It was a rough night for closers as Kenley Jansen and Hector Neris each permitted three runs in the wild Dodgers-Phillies tilt. Meanwhile, the Rockies finally woke up in the ninth inning to light up Giants left-hander Will Smith -- and then the Giants lit up Wade Davis, which does not surprise at all. Those relying on Astros right-hander Hector Rondon in AL-only formats got a bad gift when he opened against the Angels and gave up six runs! I have said for a while that Scott Oberg is superior to Davis, and perhaps that change occurs soon. I worry about Neris. Like Jansen, he relies on just one pitch, but Jansen does it better. Come to think of it, I worry about Jansen, too.
W2W4
Underrated Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Yonny Chirinos faces Domingo German at Yankee Stadium. Chirinos is a swingman who no longer, um, swings. He is a capable starter and the No. 19 pitcher on the full-season Player Rater. He goes six innings each outing and misses bats. His 0.96 WHIP ranks fourth in the sport among qualifiers. Watch him on ESPN. Before you do that, though, go add him!
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