Heading into the second half of the season, it's still important that we do not overemphasize the current season's numbers, but we are starting to reach the point where we can put a bit more faith into them. Of course, history still matters. Sample size still matters. Context still matters. Regression will still happen. But our estimations of player talent at this point may be vastly different than what we thought back in March.
Here are several players whose underlying metrics and/or context make them notable bets to have strong second-halves, either via improvement or sustained success.
Joey Gallo, 1B/OF, Texas Rangers
My projection system, THE BAT, liked Joey Gallo coming into the season, seeing him as one of the top draft day values, and it absolutely loves him after mashing for half a season. It sees him as a top 15 real-life hitter and a top 20 option for 5x5 fantasy purposes. If you're in a points league, there may not be anyone better except for Mike Trout. Gallo has always hit the ball hard, but this year he's taken it to a new level, making hard contact on nearly 55% of contacted balls. The strikeouts are still there (and always will be), but he's become a bit more selective and has a walk rate approaching 20%. His .389 BABIP is too high, but the .250 mark he was at in both 2017 and 2018 was much too low given his minor league track record and how hard he hits the ball. It's not overly complicated: Gallo has the best power in baseball, plays in an elite home environment, and should still contribute a batting average around .240 in an age when the average hitter is just .250.
Jake Odorizzi, SP, Minnesota Twins
I don't think anyone would question that Odorizzi has had a great season thus far-10 wins, a 3.15 ERA, and nearly 10 Ks per 9-but there are many who will point to his 4.60 xFIP as reason to "sell high". Unless you're getting somebody on the Zack Greine/Shane Bieber/Noah Syndergaard level, I'm telling you to hold tight. There's a reason THE BAT was so high on Odorizzi coming into the season, and those reasons remain. Namely, fantastic context. Odorizzi's career-high K/9 is no coincidence. The AL Central is very weak this year, and the Twins have the easiest second-half schedule of any American League team. Even better, they have the most favorable schedule for strikeouts of any team in MLB. Throw in the fact that great pitch-framer Jason Castro has caught nearly 50% of games this year after barely eclipsing 10% last year, and you have another boon for Twins pitcher Ks. Hit and homer regression is coming, but Odorizzi has enough talent and favorable enough context to withstand it. Expect a 4.00 ERA and nearly 10 K/9.
Michael Pineda, SP, Minnesota Twins
Pineda looks like a potential buy-low candidate in medium-to-deep leagues. Like Odorizzi, his strength of schedule going forward is very favorable. Home runs may always be a problem for Pineda, but his control is elite, and after a slow start to the year following Tommy John surgery, his velocity has been up 1.5 mph since the start of June-nearly to his post-surgery levels. There's free upside here if he continues to shake off rust and if his strength of schedule can mute his gopheritis enough.
Drew Smyly, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
This is one for very deep leagues, because Smyly was bad with the Rangers. But there's some reason for optimism given that he has faced the toughest set of opponents of any starting pitcher in baseball with at least 100 batters faced. Facing the Astros three times and the Angels twice highlight his bad scheduling luck, culminating in a 9% reduction in strikeouts, 8% increase in walks, and 7% increase in home runs. He also had one of the toughest umpire draws, losing another 2% of his strikeouts and adding 2% walks. Now give him a big park and weather upgrade from the third toughest park and absolute toughest weather into a neutral park/neutral weather situation in Milwaukee (yes, yes, I know, Miller is an elite home run park, which can be problematic, but it's neutral overall) and let him face a pitcher instead of a DH at the back of every lineup, and hey... you never know. Granted, a 6.32 xFIP is bad no matter how unlucky the context, but the Brewers have had success working with bad pitchers before (see: Wade Miley, 2018), and Smyly certainly has the pedigree as a once-great hurler. He's freely available basically everywhere, so all you need is a bench spot should he be given some starts.
Danny Jansen, C, Toronto Blue Jays
Jansen was one of the worst hitters in baseball through mid-June with a laughable .166 batting average, .224 wOBA, and just two home runs. He was all but free in DFS circles and still elicited groans whenever he'd be a recommended play. Since then, however, he's hitting .386 with a .533 wOBA and six home runs. The sample is small, but this is a perfect example of not putting too much emphasis on early season stats, even when the sample size starts to "look" big enough. Even with mediocre peripherals, Jansen was still very much underperforming and should be in for a solid second-half at a shallow position. Even amidst his struggles, Jansen was still hitting the ball 13% harder than a league average batter, and in his surge his flyball rate has risen from 36% to 46%. Regression is coming, but the skills are there for him to be a top 12-15 catcher the rest of the way.
Brendan McKay, SP/DH, Tampa Bay Rays
McKay is best known as baseball next two-way player ala Shohei Ohtani, but he's much more than just a gimmick. While McKay has made just two MLB starts, he projects as a top 40 or 45 pitcher in baseball right now-on the level of established hurlers like David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Masahiro Tanaka. Plus, he calls an elite pitchers' park home. The biggest question is how many starts he'll draw, since the Rays have since sent him back to the minors. But whenever he gets the call again, the talent is absolutely there. His minor league numbers are highly impressive, and so is his stuff, led by a 94 mph fastball. The curveball is the pitch that most excites me, though, coming in at nearly 82 mph. Velocity is extremely important for curveballs, and McKay's is one of the hardest in the game, allowing it to hide well inside his fastball while still generating lots of movement for hitters to swing over given how quickly the pitch approaches the plate.
Blake Snell, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Last season, Blake Snell had a 1.89 ERA and a 3.16 xFIP. He was lucky but still great. This season, he has a 4.87 ERA and a 3.01 xFIP. He's been unlucky... but is still great. If the Blake Snell owner in your league is selling him as anything other than one of the best 5 or 10 SPs in fantasy, you need to pounce. This is strictly bad luck with a .354 BABIP, 66% LOB%, and 18.5% HR/FB. Big positive regression is in store, and if you can get an ace for 70 cents on the dollar, you need to do it.
Brandon Woodruff, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Woodruff has come a long way since his 6.7 K/9, 4.72 xFIP debut in 2017. His K/9 is over 10 this year despite a low-K set of opponents to this point. His velocity is up nearly 2 mph since 2017, and his fastball spin rate is up 7%. THE BAT views him as the 13th-best SP in baseball on a context-neutral, per-inning basis and a top 20 fantasy SP for the second-half. His breakout looks very real.
Yordan Alvarez, OF, Houston Astros
Rookie hitters don't often project well immediately given how many struggle or bust. In just the last few years, elite prospects like Byron Buxton, Yoan Moncada, and Dansby Swanson (just to name a few) have fallen flat in their first taste of the majors. So when a prospect does project well, he's usually something special. The four players THE BAT has Alvarez sandwiched between in terms of second-half fantasy value? Kris Bryant, Rhys Hoskins ahead; George Springer, Justin Turner behind. Alvarez destroyed the minors and hasn't stopped since his promotion. He hits the ball in the air, and he hits it hard. He hits it hard over 55% of the time, to be exact. And for a guy with that kind of power, there's not even an excessive amount of striking out. Hitting in baseball's second-best lineup, you can expect big things from Alvarez going forward.
Justin Bour, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
Bour started the season off incredibly cold-and unlucky, given a .190 BABIP. He got sent to the minors, raked, and has hit 4 HRs with a .366 wOBA in 37 PA since being called back up in mid-June. He's not playing enough to have value in shallow-and-medium depth mixed leagues, but in deeper mixed, AL-only, or leagues with daily transactions, this is a guy who could be primed for a great per-PA second-half. Because, honestly, nothing has changed under the hood. He's hitting the ball into the air. He's making hard contact and barreling balls at the same rate he always has. He's striking out a little more, but it's nothing alarming, and the sample is very small still. Bour turned 20%+ of his flyballs into home runs while playing for years in one of baseball's toughest home run parks. Now he's in sneaky-elite Angel Stadium, which boosts lefty HRs 30% over Marlins Park. Given the chance, Bour could do some special things.
Max Kepler, OF, Minnesota Twins
Coming into 2019, Kepler was firmly in the "slightly below-average hitter" category with wOBAs of .313, .315, and .316 from 2016-2018. He's busted out in a big way this year, vaulting to .365, and THE BAT is largely buying in, projecting .355 going forward. The strikeouts are down to 15%, and after years of hard contact rates 3-5% above average, he's nearly tripled this season to +14%. This has led to 21 home runs, made more impressive by the fact that he's faced some of the coldest temperatures of any hitter in baseball. The Twins weather schedule figures to be about average in the second half, so even though some regression should be expected for Kepler, this is a breakout that has some real staying power.
Jason Vargas, SP, New York Mets
Hear me out on this one. Vargas is a bad pitcher, no doubt. One of the worst in the majors, in fact. But the Mets have the easiest second-half schedule of any team in baseball. And they play their home games in MLB's second-best pitchers' park. Do not roster Vargas in your shallow leagues. But in deeper formats where you have some roster flexibility, he absolutely will have value if you pick and choose your spots with him. Citi Field against a weak-to-mediocre opponent? He'll do just fine. I've had him on my LABR NL reserve roster all year, and I love every minute of it.