Tampa Bay Rays lefty Blake Snell remains one of the most obvious trade targets in fantasy because a closer inspection at his numbers simply do not tell the tale of a struggling hurler. Yes, Snell brought a mighty unsightly 5.01 ERA into Sunday's game against the Texas Rangers, but quite a bit of the damage came in his previous three outings, when he walked nine over seven total innings, allowing 16 earned runs.
Fantasy managers wondered if Snell was worth rostering and I could not believe they were asking this. Snell has pitched remarkably similar to last season when he won 21 games, with 221 strikeouts and a 1.89 ERA, and captured the AL Cy Young award.
Snell stuck around on fantasy rosters and we presume most people enjoyed his Sunday performance in which he fanned 12 Rangers over six dominant innings, permitting three hits and two runs (thanks to a Joey Gallo home run), and little else. He walked nobody, which is actually a better sign than the myriad whiffs. We know Snell misses bats. In fact, he is missing more bats than last season, with a greater strikeout rate and higher rates in all the swing-and-miss percentages, for pitches inside and outside the strike zone. There is nothing wrong with Snell's stuff. His current 4.87 ERA comes with a 3.33 FIP and 2.99 xFIP, which screams for someone that simply is not getting the breaks. His .354 BABIP leads all qualified starting pitchers by quite a margin.
It has become a bit tougher to judge pitchers for this season, as baseball has implemented a different baseball that flies harder and farther than ever, and Snell -- like most others -- is permitting a higher home run rate than normal. That is not the problem. Snell just had a rough period, including an outing at Yankee Stadium against the team leading the majors in runs scored in which he permitting six runs while retiring one hitter. It happens to the best of them. He followed it up with a pounding in Minnesota against another top offense. The real issue was command; Snell could not throw pitches where he wanted and if he was not issuing walks, the top offenses were sending line drives across the ballpark. Sunday was the 2018 version of Snell, and I fully expect more of this the final three months, and perhaps an ERA on the better side of 3.00 from here on out.
Weekend takeaways
• New York Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu hit .625 last week with two home runs, 10 runs batted in and eight runs scored, and he is up to .345 on this magical season and a pace for more than 20 home runs. Yep, the new golf balls baseball uses in games helps but still, LeMahieu was not much of a hitter - for power or otherwise - away from Coors Field the past six-plus seasons. Now he is an obvious All-Star and star leadoff hitter for baseball's highest scoring club. The Yankees have scored one more run than the Rockies and Twins, but in fewer games. Nobody could see ridiculous season from LeMahieu coming, and most thought he would struggle to find playing time, but there is also no reason to think it stops soon. He is the No. 9 hitter on the season Player Rater. Is there a lesson learned here? Well, I would prefer to see a consistent baseball from year to year, but perhaps hitters leaving the Rockies deserve a fairer evaluation, too.
• Do not view the ridiculous run scoring from the brief London Series as a harbinger of even more crazy offense performance moving forward. ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted about the stadium aerodynamics affected the breaking pitches, making it far easier for hitters to tee off on ineffective ones. They already hit fastballs. The Yankees scored 29 runs in two wins. On Saturday, neither Rick Porcello nor Masahiro Tanaka escaped the first inning. I finally acknowledge Porcello should be nowhere near an active fantasy roster, but he is not this bad. Nor is the Boston bullpen, though I make no case to roster anyone there, including the perhaps-overworked Matt Barnes.
• Tampa Bay Rays lefty Brendan McKay, eligible as a starting pitcher and a first baseman, debuted against the Rangers on Saturday and looked the part of future star, tossing six scoreless frames. I think he will aid the Rays and fantasy managers considerably more as a pitcher, though he is not a big strikeout option, but we do not know if the Rays will keep him on the big league roster for long, either. In other words, he is not really a must-addition in fantasy.
• The Chicago White Sox announced top pitching prospect Dylan Cease will start Wednesday and stick around in the rotation. Cease has inconsistent minor league figures, but massive statistical upside. I rostered him in a league but left him on the bench, for most rookie hurlers are not Chris Paddack, you know, and this is the American League. Still, look what Lucas Giolito has done. He is an All-Star. I no longer view the AL and NL pitchers that different. Everyone gets to play with a golf ball now.
Health report
• Yankees outfield Giancarlo Stanton brought an injury-riddled reputation into the 2017 season, then played nearly every day that year and in 2018. What do we call him now? Stanton missed most of the first half of the season with a shoulder injury, came off the injured list June 18, homered on June 24, left the next day's game with a knee contusion and is back on the shelf until August. We know Stanton can aid a fantasy team when healthy, but the Yankees boast outfield depth and can be patient. I would not be trading for Stanton in a fantasy league, points or roto format, redraft or dynasty.
• St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Marcell Ozuna broke several fingers diving back into first base Friday night, and figures to miss at least a few weeks. Ozuna is the No. 8 outfielder on the season Player Rater, and a mere 16 players have more than his 20 home runs. He seems worth waiting for. Tyler O'Neill gets another chance to hit but with his lack of plate discipline, I am skeptical he will succeed. Jose Martinez will also play this week because the Cardinals play a series with the designated hitter in Seattle. As for infielder Matt Carpenter, who barely played last week due to what team called a stomach issue -- we cannot stomach his .216 batting average -- I cannot dump him because of how he drastically altered his 2018 season, and ended up with 36 home runs. We know he can do this.
Closing time
• More on closers in Tuesday's blog entry, but recent newsmakers include the Cubs (Craig Kimbrel is closing for them), Reds, Cardinals and Rays. Raisel Iglesias is probably the Cincinnati closer over Michael Lorenzen, but I am losing faith that either need to be rostered in a standard league. Iglesias saved Sunday's win, but unconventionally (two innings, three runs) and the role appears split. The Cardinals claimed Carlos Martinez would close now that Jordan Hicks is out for the season, and that might be true. The Rays lack both Diego Castillo and Jose Alvarado, so Emilio Pagan gets the saves, but the Rays as a club posted only two saves in June, lowest in the sport (Arizona, Houston, Toronto and Baltimore had three saves). It hardly means the Rays cannot save 10 games in July, but Pagan is not a high-volume pitcher, either.
W2W4
• Weekly leagues lock early on Monday as the Blue Jays host the Royals in the afternoon. The highlight game of the day is on ESPN at night as the Cubs give rookie right-hander Adbert Alzolay another shot in Pittsburgh, against underrated Trevor Williams. I like Alzolay but do not think this is a big strikeout option. I worry this week, as he is on the slate for two starts, if the Cubs keep his pitch count below the 75-pitch mark. There might not be room for the rookie for long, as Kyle Hendricks returns to pitch Tuesday. Still, this is an arm to watch.
• The Padres give rookie lefty Logan Allen another start, at home against the weak Giants. Allen has beaten the Brewers and Orioles so far and certainly looks composed. He has fanned five in each outing, totaling 13 innings. Later this week, however, he gets the Dodgers on the road, and that can be scary. I expect the Padres to keep the innings in check for Allen and Chris Paddack, so be prepared. Cal Quantrill looks like a middle reliever for this season.
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