On Tuesday, Brendan McKay, the pitcher, made his debut for the Durham Bulls, the Tampa Bay Rays Triple-A affiliate. McKay, the batter, had already gone 0-for-4 as the Bulls' designated hitter over the weekend. The fourth overall pick by Tampa Bay in the 2017 draft was selected as a two-way player from the University of Louisville. He started his professional career playing first base in addition to pitching and hitting. However, the Rays took his first baseman's glove away this year in an effort to simplify his focus.
McKay is a .208 hitter since being drafted, so Durham is likely where his bat will stay for the most part. Given that the Rays are one of the more creative organizations, I am sure there will be situations in which his ability to handle a bat will provide some unique opportunities. But McKay is going to be a major leaguer -- perhaps very soon -- because of his ability to pitch.
Since joining the Rays' farm system in the summer of 2017, McKay has logged 145 innings. In that time, he has allowed 31 earned runs (1.99 ERA) while striking out 190 batters. Perhaps more impressive, he has handed out just 28 bases on balls.
McKay has done arguably his best work this season. In eight appearances for the Rays' Double-A squad in Montgomery, he registered 62 strikeouts versus nine walks in 41 2/3 innings. Only six runners crossed the plate on his tab.
The Rays have been diligent in his usage. He has not pitched more than six innings or thrown more than 86 pitches in any of his 34 appearances in the minors. Nonetheless, the results and his pedigree required advancement. After the strong showing with the Biscuits, McKay continued his dominance on Tuesday with his new club.
Fastball
McKay has an above-average fastball. In facing the Louisville Bats, a team he shared a city with during college, everything was predicated on the fastball. The velocity was not overpowering. Most tosses were between 90-94 mph. He generated a few swings and misses, but the majority of his 15 outs were generated on balls in play.
Pitching from the third base side of the rubber, McKay worked mostly on the corners. Typically his catcher, Nick Ciuffo, would set up away from the batter. The southpaw worked mainly glove side to fellow lefties while trying to locate arm side against the opposite hand. When he wanted, he showed the ability to run pitches in on the hands of a righty. These "fastballs" actually may have been cutters with a shorter, more deliberate action. At times, he attempted to entice hitters to chase fastballs up in the zone, but often they were too high and taken for balls.
Secondary Options
McKay's secondary options included a breaking ball and a changeup. Most reports include a curveball that flashes plus, but to my untrained eye, I saw two versions of a breaking ball. There was a bigger, arching curveball that came in the upper-70s. He attempted this pitch several times against left-handers without much success. The pitch had a tendency to stay high, although he did throw his best ones against former big leaguer Scott Schebler.
The other variation was a little firmer, a little tighter and looked more like a slider. This was the better of the two on this night. Tossed in the low-80s, McKay used this option several times against the platoon split, showing a knack for being able to bury it at the back foot of right-handed hitters. He used this pitch to induce a swinging strikeout of the right-handed Christian Colon, another player with majors experience.
The changeup was mostly a show-me offering in this outing. He did throw a nice offspeed pitch against Juan Graterol for a whiff, but the bulk of his offerings were either heaters or benders this time out.
Control/Command
The ability to navigate pitches has been a plus for McKay. I have seen a lot of 60 grades tossed in this area and I will agree with those assessments. In this game, he threw a strike on 39 of his 65 pitches (60 percent). I would say his control was better than that, as a few misses were by design. Ciuffo called for several pitches out of the zone in pitcher's counts. McKay executed, but the batters did not chase.
McKay has borderline command on his fastball. He can spot it on either corner with relative ease. However, he needs refinement within the zone, especially up. The fastball is true, which means it does not have a lot of wiggle. Without elite velocity, good hitters will turn pitches that miss their spots in the zone into souvenirs. He also showed decent control of the breaking ball, throwing it in the general direction in which it was called for. The more traditional curve was left up several times, however, while the breaking ball with more bite seemed to have sharper location, even when he threw it out of the zone on demand.
Closing Thoughts
Brendan McKay is pretty much a consensus top-25 prospect at this point and looked like one on Tuesday. He showed at least four pitches that were average or better, with a feel for location and a plan of attack. Even within the same pitch, he has some variety. This will make hitters uneasy, even though he is not someone that lives 95-97 mph. He has ability and frame to hit that level, but did not need to exert himself much on Tuesday. Personally, I prefer a pitcher who can toss 94 on the black over one who throws 98 with a lost GPS signal. The back-foot breaking ball looks like a legit weapon versus right-handers. If you add in the average changeup, you should have enough to fend off platoon splits. I would like to see a more potent put-away option against lefties, but again, I have a feeling the plan was very simple for his maiden voyage on a Triple-A mound.
Even though the Rays will be cautious with his usage, I think there is a 3-5 inning role for McKay at some point this summer. Perhaps on a schedule where he toes the rubber every fifth or sixth day with the opportunity to hit some in between appearances. From there, I see a much larger role with No. 2 starter upside. He is an obvious must-have in dynasty formats and I would think long and hard about adding him immediately after he is called up in redraft leagues.