There has been nary a save opportunity for the Atlanta Braves so perhaps we do not really know how presumed closer Arodys Vizcaino is feeling, since he has not thrown in a game. What we do know is that lefty A.J. Minter, also dealing with a shoulder injury, could come off the injured list before the weekend, and that would obviously complicate the value for the right-handed Vizcaino, who might share the save chances soon.
Either way, fantasy managers need to pay attention to roughly a third of the big league bullpens as ninth-inning roles remain fluid, and Atlanta, despite a rough weekend in Philadelphia, will win many games in 2019, so this one seems more important than, say, the Royals and Marlins.
Fantasy managers seem to be ignoring Minter, saver of 15 games a season ago as a rookie, with Vizcaino rostered in more than three times as many leagues. Can we say for sure which pitcher leads the Braves in saves this season? Of course not! However, it seems clear that both Vizcaino and Minter are health risks. The former has saved between 9 and 16 games for the Braves the past four seasons, but made it past 40 innings only once. He misses bats, but he is not a lights-out option, and his 2018 ERA (2.11) hardly matches his FIP (3.80). Oh, and durability is a problem.
Minter might be no better, really, at least in the health department, but I like the statistical upside more. I think we know what Vizcaino is at this point, and it is, well, nothing special. Saves are saves but I have a hard time believing Vizcaino saves more than 20 games. I think he ends up on the injured list soon, perhaps this week. The Atlanta bullpen is battered and inexperienced. It needs help. Minter should help this weekend, and perhaps if he blows a save this weekend there will be a Craig Kimbrel reunion. Regardless, if I had to choose between Vizcaino and Minter in fantasy, and this -- and other thoughts on predicted saves since last week -- might have changed recently, but I go with Minter.
Tuesday is the day this daily blog entry focuses on relief pitchers, so here are random thoughts on those that procure the saves, and drive fantasy managers crazy while doing it.
Philadelphia has yet to lose a baseball game but like six other clubs, there is a goose egg next to the team's save total. This statistic, of course, is so ridiculous. Lead by four runs entering the ninth, no save chance. Lead by three, there is. (Washington Nationals lefty Sean Doolittle entered in the eighth inning of a weekend game with men on base, "officially" blew the save, then "unofficially" saved the win in the ninth. He got a win. Whatever.) I now believe Phillies manager Gabe Kapler will divide the closing role between David Robertson, Seranthony Dominguez and even Hector Neris, all right-handers. That may sadden fantasy managers, but it depends on your goal. If you want 30-plus saves, bad Detroit Tigers right-hander Shane Greene should do that. No Phillie will, I believe, but the overall value for perhaps each of the three save options should be greater.
I am fine being alone on an island with this, but I do not see why Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Greg Holland cannot be the NL version of Greene. It will be ugly in ERA and WHIP, but 30 saves, sure! Arizona let Brad Boxberger save 32 games with a 4.39 ERA last season. Fernando Rodney saved 39 games with a 4.23 ERA in 2017. I truly see a pattern here.
Take an educated -- perhaps not so educated -- guess on who saves the next game for, in alphabetical order, the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Miami Marlins, Minnesota Twins, Phillies, Seattle Mariners and St. Louis Cardinals. That is 10 teams, or a third of the sport! I say it is Richard Bleier, Matt Barnes, Pedro Strop, David Hernandez, Ian Kennedy, Sergio Romo, Taylor Rogers, Dominguez, Cory Gearrin and Jordan Hicks. Phew! Yes, it looks like Mychal Givens gets the Raisel Iglesias treatment in Baltimore; he is the best reliever they have, so he might pitch more in the eighth inning. Barnes is saving 30 in Boston, I think. Strop is the April closer, and perhaps May until Brandon Morrow returns. Hernandez is the Cincy ninth-inning option, I think. Kennedy closing is crazy, but he did not push aside anyone great, including Boxberger. Romo is experienced. Rogers is good. Close your eyes and guess in Philly. Same with Seattle, really. Gearrin could not throw strikes his last time. In a week it is probably Anthony Swarzak. And Hicks is good, just be patient.
The Tampa Bay Rays historically pile on the saves because the club does not, in comparison to other teams at least, win their games by many runs. Jose Alvarado for 28 saves and right-hander Diego Castillo for 12? Sure!
If choosing between stashing Atlanta's Minter and Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Jeremy Jeffress, it is a close one, but I would go with Jeffress. What a tremendous season he had in 2018. Mock me all you want for leading the Do Not Draft article with Josh Hader, but I still think the club wants him pitching earlier in games. Jeffress can close. Jacob Barnes and Jimmy Nelson could close. Hader is so dominant he probably ends up a top-five fantasy relief pitcher even with south of 20 saves, just like last season.
I do worry about Cleveland Indians lefty Brad Hand being able to save 35-plus games because his setup group is just so underwhelming. How could this club not upgrade there? I keep saying and people think I am nuts, but watch out for the Twins. Better offense, better bullpen. No aces, of course, but Jose Berrios is really good.
Most over-rostered relief pitchers in one man's opinion: Iglesias, Vizcaino, Andrew Miller (he is still not right, and not getting saves), Archie Bradley, Corey Knebel (he is done, drop him), Hunter Strickland (out for months) and Jeurys Familia (no saves).
Most under-rostered: Barnes, Hicks, Greene, Holland, Alex Colome (saved 84 games in 2016-17), Minter, Rogers, Hernandez and, in a week, Swarzak.
How long are you going to roster Kimbrel in fantasy? He remains at 90 percent. He is not employed and it is likely due to his asking price, so he is not likely to pitch in a game this month. This is fascinating. He might sit out 2019. Whatever.
Monday recap
Box scores
Highlights:
• Colin Moran, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: 2-for-3, HR, 3 RBI
• Kevin Kiermaier, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: 2-for-3, HR, 4 RBI
• Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees: 2-for-4, HR, SB
• Mike Clevinger, SP, Cleveland Indians: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 12 K
• David Hess, SP, Baltimore Orioles: 6 1/3 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Lowlights:
• Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox: 0-for-3, 3 K
• Matt Carpenter, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: 0-for-5, 4 K
• Matt Strahm, RP, San Diego Padres: 2 2/3 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
• Chad Bettis, SP, Colorado Rockies: 5 2/3 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
• Drew Steckenrider, RP, Miami Marlins: 1 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Monday takeaways:
Fernando Tatís Jr. (20 years, 89 days old) is the second-youngest Padres player with a home run in team history. Roberto Alomar had homers at 20 years, 85 days and 20 years, 88 days. pic.twitter.com/37Wit3homk
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 2, 2019
• Perhaps I am too excited about Tatis, and I might end up writing about him literally every day. He is up to 73 percent rostered in ESPN leagues. What are realistic numbers for him? Well, he has power. He does run. Unlike two weeks ago, we expect more than 500 plate appearances. This is not going to be Scott Kingery, someone so young and overwhelmed that they struggle. If Tatis does, he will get demoted. The Padres have other options, like Luis Urias. Tatis will struggle at times; I doubt he hits .300 or close to it. How about .270, with 20 home runs and 15 steals? Is that production good enough to be your middle infielder? I think it is.
• There were some messy games on Monday. Blame it on the cold weather if you must, but 27 errors seems like a lot. The Cubs seemed to have half of them. There are no fantasy implications here, really, though as a Kyle Hendricks investor, at least some of the runs were unearned. Phew.
• Watching the games can tell a different story than watching the box score. David Price did not pitch badly. However, one of his final pitches lefty killer Chad Pinder crushed for a home run. It does not ruin the outing in totality, though perhaps it does statistically. Be patient. Price gets 30 more. The Red Sox rotation will be fine. I do worry, however, that manager Alex Cora already switches Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi in the lineup after five games and I cannot imagine Rafael Devers keeps his sweet No. 3 lineup spot for long. He looked bad at the plate Monday.
• Hey, I told you months ago about Arizona's Christian Walker, comparing him to the late breakout we saw from Jesus Aguilar. Now we see Jake Lamb taking grounders at third base. Yep.
• I thought Dodgers lefty Julio Urias looked fantastic, really. Nobody expected he would throw 100 pitches, not yet. Perhaps it will be a while. Yes, the Giants do not hit, although Brandon Belt ruined the night for Joe Kelly, but Urias for 130 innings could be valuable.
• I say 25 home runs and a 40 percent K rate for Rays infielder Brandon Lowe. Fine for us, as long as he hits at least .250, which he should. His name is pronounced LAO, by the way, if you care.
Health report:
• At least the Yankees won Monday. They lost Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar to the injured list. I noted in Monday's blog that the Stanton biceps strain is no big deal. He probably returns in two weekends. Andujar has a labrum tear in his throwing shoulder. He might be done. Wait on the final news, for the Yankees might want him playing through it, but this could be season-ending surgery, which is a shame for a promising sophomore. DJ LeMahieu was signed to be a utility option; he now gets all the third-base at-bats, but with no power, and if he does not run, do we care?
• The Rays will be sans infielder Joey Wendle for at least two weeks with a hamstring strain. It might not be serious, but they have so much depth, why risk it. Wendle is not an awesome fantasy option, so let him go, but he did hit .300 last season with 16 steals, so I am guessing he will matter in fantasy again soon.
W2W4:
• Bryce Harper returns to Washington, D.C. Boo him, cheer him, whatever. Act like a child or an adult. In fantasy, do not expect much because Max Scherzer is pitching, but this is must-watch TV. Of all the Phillies, the only one with real success versus Max is, of course, Odubel Herrera. Still, I cannot make a case in a daily league or DFS. It is Max Scherzer.
• Of more importance in our world is how Chris Sale and Zack Greinke perform in their second outings. Sale is a top-three fantasy starter no matter how you view it. If velocity is down and the Athletics pummel him, it will alter opinions, though perhaps not mine. Give it time. Greinke does not throw hard. The slight drop in his velocity tells me nothing. Plus, it was not the Royals that hit four home runs off him, it was the Dodgers. He should do well in San Diego and quiet the pessimists.
• I do want to see how Toronto lines up against Orioles right-hander Andrew Cashner, just asking to give up myriad runs. Yes, in two weeks the Blue Jays could have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the middle of things, just ahead of Justin Smoak and Randal Grichuk. That is interesting. The current lineup is not inspiring. In deeper formats wait a bit on Teoscar Hernandez, Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Danny Jansen before moving on.