The fairy tale that has been the first season in the majors for Los Angeles Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani took a few turns on Wednesday.
First, the organization announced there was more damage in the pitcher's UCL than expected and ligament replacement surgery was the obvious recommendation. No surprise there. We probably could have seen that coming months ago.
Second, Ohtani homered twice against Texas in a four-hit performance, and stole a base. Again, no surprise there. Ohtani is awesome.
He is not, however, healthy enough to pitch and he and the Angels have some decisions to make. One would presume Ohtani is not going to pitch in a big league game again until 2020, but it is still not resolved whether he will perform as a batter.
Fantasy managers needs answers and they need them quickly! Ohtani is the No. 31 option on the full-season Player Rater, despite barely pitching the past few months. What does the future hold for him?
My expectation is that the Angels will continue to let Ohtani hit for the final three weeks of the season, even though the team could literally do the exact opposite before you read this. If Ohtani hits, he will continue to put on a show. A terrific athlete and clearly worthy of making adjustments, Ohtani is hitting .362 since the start of August with nine home runs and five stolen bases, with a mere 80 plate appearances. Boston's J.D. Martinez has hit .376 with seven blasts and two steals in that span, with a lot more PA. Only seven players have more home runs than Ohtani in that span, and only Ronald Acuna Jr. and Trevor Story can match the steals.
My theory is that the Angels could prescribe the Tommy John surgery for Ohtani and still give him 500 plate appearances as the designated hitter next season, and perhaps some chances in the outfield and first base as well. Earlier this week I compared the potential hitting numbers to what Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich has achieved this season, minus like 30 batting average points. Ohtani can hit 30 home runs and steal 15 bases given a full season of chances. You know how many fellows have done that this season? Five have done it and another few could, including Yelich and Manny Machado. It remains an exclusive club.
As a result, I think it will be perfectly reasonable to rank Ohtani like a top-20 outfielder in 2019, taking into account the fact he is not eligible there and the plate appearances are hardly guaranteed. Nelson Cruz is not an outfielder, but we can compare him to those at the position and get a gauge that he is top-10 worthy. Ohtani is not Yelich, but if the Angels let him perform in the role, he should produce big numbers. He cannot pitch in 2019. Get past that. He can hit. I hope the Angels permit it.
As for dynasty/keeper purposes, I think we should question Ohtani's future as a pitcher. After all, entering 2020, he will have thrown roughly 75 innings over a three-year span between the big leagues and Japan. He is young and pitchers come back strong from UCL replacement surgery all the time, but is it worth the risk? Perhaps he ends up as a closer. Regardless, I wonder if Ohtani has a bright future on the mound when his hitting is so relevant.
He remains a top-50 fantasy option for dynasty purposes, and top-100 as a hitter for 2019, because he can be special, but if you are expecting dominant pitching numbers in 2020, well, be realistic. I think it is more likely Ohtani carves out a place among the top hitters.
Wednesday recap
Box scores
Highlights:
• Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies: 3-for-4, 3 HR, 3 RBI
• Shohei Ohtani, DH, Los Angeles Angels: 4-for-4, 2 HR, 4 R, SB
• Matt Adams, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
• Corey Kluber, SP, Cleveland Indians: 6 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
• Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Lowlights:
• Rhys Hoskins, 1B/OF, Philadelphia Phillies: 0-for-4, 3 K
• Todd Frazier, 3B, New York Mets: 0-for-4, 3 K
• Michael Kopech, SP, Chicago White Sox: 3 1/3 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
• Tyler Glasnow, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: 2/3 IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Luis Severino, SP, New York Yankees: 2 2/3 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Wednesday takeaways:
Luis Severino has made 11 starts with Gary Sanchez behind the plate this year.
Severino's ERA over the first 9 was 1.94.
Over the last 2 it is: 14.09 ERA.
Sanchez was part of the problem tonight in the first inning, but Severino has deeper issues he needs to correct.
- Sweeny Murti (@YankeesWFAN) September 6, 2018
• I think we have sailed past the point in which fantasy managers have to keep sending Luis Severino to the mound, and also if you have invested in Gary Sanchez in a dynasty format, expect he gets moved off catcher at some point, perhaps soon. Sanchez has never been a great defender, but Wednesday night's first inning was a mess, with two wild pitches and two passed balls. At least he homered later, but still, he could lose playing time if the team has to deploy others behind the plate. Severino has struggled for months, but my sense is most fantasy managers simply look at last year's numbers and blindly keep relying on him. I sat him six weeks ago in one league. Severino has a 6.95 ERA since the All-Star break, over nine starts. He is piling on the strikeouts, but do you want to win your league or be loyal? Sit him down!
• The great Mike Fiers easily handled the Yankees over six innings, finally allowing runs in the seventh on the Sanchez home run, and he is 4-0 for Oakland with a 2.94 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in six starts. Why would you use Severino over Fiers, I rhetorically asked in Wednesday's blog entry. You shouldn't! Are you worried about losing and second-guessing yourself for sitting Severino? Trevor Williams, Clay Buchholz, Dereck Rodriguez, Wade Miley, Derek Holland, Carlos Rodon and Austin Gomber are among the top-20 hurlers in ERA since the All-Star break, and each is available in more than half of ESPN's leagues. Rely on these pitchers.
• I yelled when Brandon Phillips hit the ninth-inning home run that eventually beat the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday afternoon, because it was another great moment in a season full of them. The Braves will probably still win the NL East because the second-place team cannot beat the Marlins and Mets and cannot score runs. I bet most people did not realize Phillips was a member of the Boston Red Sox. I do not think he will have a major statistical impact these final three weeks, so no need to check the free agent wire for mixed formats (go look in AL-only), but it is a reminder that sometimes it is all about opportunity.
Health report:
• Angels outfielder Mike Trout was missing from the lineup with a tight calf muscle from being hit by a pitch the day before. The Angels are most every team are off on Thursday so as of this juncture, expect Trout to play Friday and beyond.
• Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber homered against the Brewers and then left early with sore back. The Cubs do play on Thursday against Stephen Strasburg, so perhaps Schwarber sits this one out. Schwarber has made strides at the plate - and, to be fair, defensively - but is hitting .239. I think it is fair to wonder if this is what he is, a 30-plus homer option that does little else.
Closing time:
• Even the Cubs manager Joe Maddon seems resigned to the fact his closer Brandon Morrow is not likely to pitch anytime soon and close out games, so fantasy managers should move on as well, if they already have not. I moved on a month ago. Pedro Strop might not get every save, but most.
• Carlos Martinez, the No. 16 starting pitcher in ESPN ADP and a seventh-round selection overall, earned the save in Wednesday's win with two innings of pristine work. I do not think Martinez is going to keep getting saves, though. I still think it is Bud Norris, even though Jordan Hicks throws harder and is simply better. Hicks would be the player to add just in case that change is made. Drop Martinez, however painful it is.
W2W4:
• With football officially opening, baseball scheduled a mere four games. ESPN+ has the Braves and Anibal Sanchez at Arizona and Zack Greinke. Do not be afraid to stick with Sanchez, for he now boasts three consecutive months of high-level pitching. His ERA since the All-Star break is a cool 3.56, not awesome, but good enough to rely on, with more than a K per inning. Add him.
• The aforementioned Strasburg still does not seem quite like himself, and it shows in his fastball velocity, but he has pitched well against the Brewers and Phillies of late, and even against a deep Cubs lineup, does come recommended. He might not come close to my top-10 starters in 2019 rankings, but do not run away yet. Also, I need to see the Nationals play outfielder Victor Robles. Play him!