While many eyes will be on St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Alex Reyes for Wednesday's season debut, pay attention to the club's offense, because there has been seemingly constant change here, and there is value for fantasy managers to take advantage of and enjoy. For example,
Carpenter seems like the key to it all, and things looked grim when he found himself benched for a recent weekend series against the Padres, and then he oddly hit seventh in the lineup upon his return. He was batting .140 and fantasy managers moved on. Fowler is kind of at that point today, hitting .157 and getting some time off with a knee injury. These were valuable players in ESPN average live drafts; Carpenter going in the 12th round and Fowler in the 18th. OK, so they were not exactly coveted, but we knew what they provide, and sub-.200 batting averages are not it. They have to improve. I get why overeager fantasy managers would move on, but if you know someone is going to improve, does that not beat adding a rookie like Franmil Reyes, who is a total question mark, despite his mammoth Tuesday home run?
This is such an interesting offense, despite its rather moribund May production, and manager Mike Matheny has constantly altered the lineup, which has not made things easier to predict. Carpenter and first baseman Jose Martinez seem set these days in the top two spots, ahead of the team's top fantasy option, outfielder Tommy Pham, and that consistency should aid the rest of the lineup. Judging by the season Player Rater, Pham and Martinez are the lone Cardinals really contributing; no other Cardinals slate among the top 140 hitters! However, things are changing. Carpenter is hitting for power and scoring runs. Gyorko is knocking them in. Outfielder Marcell Ozuna, the very first Cardinal selected in ESPN ADP, remains a stellar buy-low candidate, and we must view the established Fowler this way as well.
If we were looking at Cardinals hitters as stocks, this would be a prime lineup to invest in. Carpenter remains available in so many leagues, but he has proven himself in plate discipline and scoring runs. We often overlook runs, but he is fourth in the category since the start of 2013, behind only Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt and Brian Dozier. Yes, lineup placement plays a huge role in scoring runs, but now that Carpenter is hitting, he is leading off and scoring runs. One of these days, I will blog about proven hitters with batting averages in the .150 range, because they never finish there. That is why I like Fowler; put simply, he looks so unlucky so far, as the .167 BABIP suggests, but he is taking his walks and the strikeout rate is the same. I suspect he has been dealing with this knee problem for a while and might have needed a DL stint, but he is playing Wednesday. Honestly, try to stash him. He should perform as originally expected the final four months.
Ozuna bothers me a bit more, as he is not drawing walks like he used to and his fly ball rate has dropped as well, but he is actually hitting baseballs harder than ever before. This is not a BABIP issue or a contact one. Ozuna hit 37 home runs last season, and that was in Miami. He is playing for a new contract this season, somewhere. I cannot believe he has managed three home runs in 48 games and that the rate will continue. This simply looks like a slump, and while I do not like trying to figure out a player's psyche, it tends to happen more when someone changes teams. Perhaps they try too hard or have something more to prove. I still believe Ozuna will perform like a top-30 fantasy outfielder.
Frankly, the only Cardinals hitter I would not get excited about is the rookie O'Neill, because I have little faith Matheny will play him regularly, and there is no hint of plate discipline (four walks, 44 whiffs overall this season). When Fowler is healthy, Fowler will play. Harrison Bader -- like O'Neill, a right-handed hitter -- is the one playing more than O'Neill, and he is intriguing as well. No, Bader does not look like a weightlifter, but he offers five-category upside, which is more important. I think O'Neill is back in Triple-A Memphis soon. Bader is the interesting short-term add, especially if Fowler ends up on the DL. Speaking of the DL, see if you can stash catcher Yadier Molina and shortstop Paul DeJong before they return to play. Molina can still be a top-10 catcher and DeJong has legit power. Each was a middle-round ADP selection for a reason.
Tuesday recap
Box scores
Highlights:
• Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees: 4-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
• Luis Valbuena, 3B, Los Angeles Angels: 3-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
• Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets: 2-for-3, 2 SB, 2 R
• Jake Arrieta, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
• Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Lowlights:
• Kevin Pillar, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: 0-for-5, 4 K
• Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees: 0-for-5, 3 K
• Lucas Giolito, SP, Chicago White Sox: 6 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners: 5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
• Zach Davies, SP, Milwaukee Brewers: 5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Tuesday takeaways:
Austin Meadows is hitting .425 with 4 HR over his 1st 40 career AB.
According to @EliasSports, he is just the 5th player to debut in the Expansion Era (1961) to bat .400 & hit 4+ HR in his 1st 40 career AB.
He joins Yasiel Puig, Jeff Francoeur, Albert Pujols, & Brian Giles pic.twitter.com/ABKjM4gOJA
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 30, 2018
• Yep, the baseballs really are massively different between Triple-A and the major leagues. Here is more proof! Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Austin Meadows hit one home run in 32 games for Indianapolis. One. And it was not like Meadows hit for power prior to that, or hit many long drives to the warning track. He is not a power hitter. However, his four home runs for the Pirates in 11 games might suggest otherwise. Ozzie Albies is another example of a fellow who did not provide power in the minors -- at all -- and now he is Brian Dozier. Look, I was tepid on Meadows being a fantasy savior, and I have not altered my mindset. His .439 batting average is fun, but he is a lefty contact hitter who has struggled to hit for average -- and perhaps more importantly, to stay healthy -- for years. He might be better than Gregory Polanco for this season because Polanco is simply a mess and looks nothing like the player from 2016, but I would see if you can move Meadows for more established talent, quickly.
• Ryan Zimmerman has been with the Washington Nationals organization for such a long time that the franchise had played only a few months of games in Washington since the Montreal move. He is a franchise icon. He is also injured quite a bit and inconsistently productive. I do think the team wants him back from the DL, but can he be more productive than Mark Reynolds, who homered Tuesday for the sixth time in 12 games? I do not think so. A showdown is looming! I would not trade for Reynolds, necessarily, because teams are often too loyal and make poor decisions, but I do not think the Nationals are in a hurry to get Zimmerman back, either. Add Reynolds until his opportunity ends and note it might not end at all.
• San Diego Padres outfielder Franmil Reyes has homered on consecutive days, and there is little question that this very large man -- though he is only 22 -- has legit power. I just do not see how he keeps on playing when Wil Myers returns from injury. Reyes has three extra-base hits in 12 games and 39 PA. Each hit has gone very far. He has also struck out 15 times. I am skeptical he gets 200 at-bats.
• There is no way I would invest in Chicago White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito in a redraft format. He is a mess. So talented, but oddly so hittable, and he cannot locate his pitches. But in a dynasty format, especially if I am out of contention for 2018, I go get him. He can still be a top-30 starter in time.
• Three players have reached double-digits in home runs and stolen bases. You know how good Mike Trout and Mookie Betts are. The third? It is White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson, who remains on the quietest 30/30 pace. Steal No. 12 came on Tuesday. He homered Monday. Sure, Anderson might not hit .250, but the power and steals actually are real.
• I thought Houston Astros right-hander Charlie Morton looked good against the Yankees, even though he permitted three runs in six innings. All he wants to do is miss bats, and he added 10 more K's to his ledger. It is amazing that Morton is going to strike out 200 hitters this season. He is on pace for 246 whiffs.
Injuries of note:
• A pair of NL West right-handers left their outings prematurely with worrisome maladies. San Francisco Giants afterthought -- in fantasy, at least, despite the strikeouts -- Jeff Samardzija has shoulder tightness, which is generally a problem for a pitcher who needs his shoulder. His numbers are atrocious and everyone has given up, but he also whiffed 205 hitters last season. He has probably been hurt for a while. Stash him for after the DL stint. Kenta Maeda had pitched so well for the Los Angeles Dodgers last week -- 20 strikeouts! -- but could not make it through two innings against the Phillies. The team calls it a hip strain. Knowing that organization, I call it a two-month DL stint, probably. Good news for Ross Stripling, potentially.
• I will not worry about Betts missing the first few games of the week with tightness in his left side, unless he misses Thursday's game. Then I will worry.
• I also will not worry about New York Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard, who made a surprise trip to the DL Tuesday with a ligament strain in a finger, because it sounds like he will pitch next week. The Mets have no rotation depth, like perhaps the worst in the sport, but they have to protect the aces. Jason Vargas might pitch every three days, however.
Closing time:
• The same day I speculated (in the closer report) that the Tampa Bay Rays would go with a combination of Jose Alvarado and Chaz Roe in the closer role (after the Alex Colome trade), manager Kevin Cash instead went with the experienced Sergio Romo. Yep. That does not mean he did it because Romo, who has pitched as a starter, a setup man and a closer in the past week, will continue closing, or he did it because he is experienced. But yeah, if I were looking for Tampa's saves, I would add Romo just in case. Sorry.
• The same day I speculated that Houston Astros right-hander Chris Devenski was about to become very valuable, he got the save chance against the Yankees! What timing! Then he permitted a Gardner home run and made Ken Giles look good again. Yep. Look for Giles to get the next save chance, but I still believe Devenski will pitch better the final four months.
• Do not worry yet about Padres lefty Brad Hand hurling the eighth inning Tuesday. The Padres led 5-4 at the time, and lefty slugger Justin Bour was going to bat. Still, this is an odd deployment, and it presumably left right-hander Kirby Yates for the save. He pitched anyway with a four-run lead. Something to watch here.
W2W4:
• The Cardinals send right-hander Reyes to the mound against the Brewers. Reyes struck out 44 hitters in 23 shutout innings during his rehab stint. He looks ready.
• Phillies first baseman/outfielder Rhys Hoskins hit a pinch-hit double late in the Tuesday win at the Dodgers, when it was believed he would miss a few days after fouling a Kenley Jansen pitch off his face the day prior. He could be back in the starting lineup. Hoskins has really struggled in May, but he is so much better than this. The chance to buy reasonably low is ending.
• It's Shohei Ohtani day in Detroit! At this point, I expect nothing less than six innings, 10 strikeouts and perhaps one run permitted when Ohtani has ample rest -- which he clearly has -- and is not facing a top, and patient, offense, which the Tigers are not.