One of the big mistakes people make going into a draft is having a plan that is too rigid. I see this all the time in questions I receive, stuff like "Is X round too early to take Y player?" The answer, of course, is "It depends." A key to having a productive draft that starts you off on the right foot requires managing that tension between drafting for need and drafting for value.
I can't help you with need -- I'm not at your fantasy draft -- but as someone who does a lot of work with projections, I can assist with the latter. There's an old joke about two campers running from a bear. One camper asks his friend, "Do you really think you can outrun a bear?" His friend responds, "No, but I can run faster than you." When drafting for value, you don't want to just know how good a player is, but where your opponents are likely to draft the player.
To this end, I go into every draft in March with my cheat sheet, but I also pay attention to the biggest disagreement between ZiPS projections (with adjustments for expected playing time) and average draft position. Below are some of my overvalued/undervalued players in this year's fantasy drafts. If you're in one of my leagues, could you stop reading? Thanks.
Overvalued
Travis d'Arnaud, New York Mets
ZiPS Position Rank: 15th | ADP Position Rank: 7th
After the top tier of catchers, the quality falls off considerably. If you're not getting Buster Posey or Kyle Schwarber at a slot you feel comfortable at, it's best to wait a long time. Because after Brian McCann or Jonathan Lucroy, there's little separating the next 10 or so catchers. d'Arnaud's draft position is what you expect if you could pencil him in for 500 plate appearances, meaning that if you draft him this high, you're essentially paying for a healthy d'Arnaud, not a d'Arnaud with the possibility of being healthy.
Undervalued
ZiPS Position Rank: 10th | ADP Position Rank: 18th
Really in the mood for one of those similar third-tier catchers? Realmuto is unemployed in two-thirds of ESPN's fantasy leagues, and while he's not going to push your team toward your fantasy championship, if you miss out on a top catcher by design or fortune, you can get a .250-.260 catcher with moderate power and health for free at the end of the draft.
Overvalued
ZiPS Position Rank: 23rd | ADP Position Rank: 9th
Fielder doesn't actually qualify at first base right now, so it's actually worse than the header indicates. Fielder is still going off the boards at a point at which he'd be, on average, the ninth first baseman selected, ahead of Freddie Freeman, Albert Pujols or Eric Hosmer. That's absolutely shocking value to pay for a 32-year-old player with old-player skills coming off a career-high BABIP who you can't even play anywhere but the UTIL slot.
Undervalued
Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles
ZiPS Position Rank: 2nd | ADP Position Rank: 6th
If your competitors are still valuing Davis as if his .242 BABIP in 2014 represents actual risk for his 2016 campaign, punish them by taking the second-best projected 1B at the end of the second round. Davis loses his third base qualification, one reason I had him in the undervalued last year as well, but the outfield eligibility is not without value. ZiPS has Davis entering 2016 as the MLB home run and RBI favorite and his strikeouts, in a normal season, keep his batting average at least moderately respectable.
Overvalued
Kolten Wong, St. Louis Cardinals
ZiPS Position Rank: 18th | ADP Position Rank: 9th
A better player in real-life than fantasy, Wong is being drafted ahead of players such as Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell, Neil Walker and Dustin Pedroia. Don't overpay for 15-20 stolen bases when Addison Russell is on the board.
Undervalued
Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers
ZiPS Position Rank: 4th | ADP Position Rank: 6th
The positional ranks don't look all that different, but it's the overall that's telling -- ZiPS would draft Odor 51st while his overall ADP at press time was 95. That doesn't mean you necessarily draft him in the fifth round, but it does mean that if he's a fit, you can still get value and the possibility of him being available in the next couple of rounds. ZiPS is completely sold on his power.
Overvalued
Pablo Sandoval, Boston Red Sox
ZiPS Position Rank: 28th | ADP Position Rank: 17th
Even with the missing 30 points of BABIP, his 2015 season was still a mess. 2015 was a lousy enough season that he should be on the waiver-wire, not in your 1B/3B slot. I'd rather bank on David Wright staying healthy than Kung Fu Panda figuring out how to turn on a fastball again.
Undervalued
Matt Duffy, San Francisco Giants
ZiPS Position Rank: 10th | ADP Position Rank: 16th
Unbelievably, Duffy is going right before Sandoval, despite 77 runs, 77 RBIs and a .295 batting average. While ZiPS is projecting some regression as you'd naturally expect, a .275 BA third baseman with RBIs and runs in the 70s and 10-12 homers is a nice later-round flier.
Overvalued
Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
ZiPS Position Rank: 10th | ADP Position Rank: 6th
As with Odor, the pure position rank doesn't tell the whole story. Going at 121 overall, ZiPS doesn't want to touch Andrus for more than 100 picks later (No. 230). He doesn't steal an amazing number of bases for a player who's not bringing much else to the table. Do you really want to take Andrus two rounds before Brandon Crawford and six rounds before Starlin Castro or Andrelton Simmons? No, you don't.
Undervalued
Asdrubal Cabrera, New York Mets
ZiPS Position Rank: 9th | ADP Position Rank: 22nd
Amazingly, a shortstop that hits 15 homers per year with solid mid-range RBI and run totals is unowned in 90 percent of leagues. He's a lousy defensive shortstop, but you shouldn't really care about that since he's not likely to lose his job unless he's an utter disaster there. And the Mets, given recent history, have showed an iron stomach for defensive struggles at short.
Overvalued
Corey Dickerson, Tampa Bay Rays
ZiPS Position Rank: 63rd | ADP Position Rank: 34th
Apparently, a lot of people in drafts are unaware that he was traded from the Colorado Rockies this offseason. One of the strangely forgotten lessons about Coors Field is that it's not just a home run-inflating park, it's a giant batting average-inflation one as well. Over a full season of playing time -- something not guaranteed unless the Rays dump James Loney and he stays healthy -- ZiPS projects only 22 homers and 64 RBIs to go along with a .260 batting average, and that's not a player who should be going before Hanley Ramirez or Michael Conforto or Alex Gordon.
Undervalued
Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles
ZiPS Position Rank: 16th | ADP Position Rank: 47th
Camden Yards has been an amazing home for one-dimensional right-handed sluggers. It's not the offense that will hold the Orioles back this year and ZiPS projects Trumbo, given 650 PAs, at hitting 34 homers and 108 RBIs in the middle of what should be an excellent lineup (isolated power = RBI). Healthy and in his best fit in a long time, Trumbo's numbers should look more like 2011-2013 than the past couple of seasons.