The equation is simple for Mamelodi Sundowns ahead of Wednesday's FIFA Club World Cup clash with Fluminense: win or go home.
Sundowns started their campaign with a 1-0 win over South Korea's Ulsan HD, then performed valiantly in a 4-3 defeat to Borussia Dortmund.
Fluminense drew 0-0 to Dortmund and beat Ulsan 4-2, meaning that the Brazilian side tops Group F with four points and a +2 goal difference. Dortmund are second with four points and a +1 goal difference, while Sundowns are third with three points and Ulsan, with none, already certain to finish bottom.
The main tiebreaker in the FIFA Club World Cup is head-to-head records, so Sundowns will finish behind Dortmund if the two teams finish level on four points. As a result, Miguel Cardoso's side need more than four points to stand a chance of progressing, which is only possible with a win over Fluminense.
Fascinatingly, Cardoso came close to working with Fluminense's most recognisable player - former AC Milan, Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea centre-back Thiago Silva.
Silva joined his first European club, FC Porto in 2004 - mere months after Cardoso had stopped coaching in the club's youth ranks and moved to Belenenses as a fitness coach.
He will be relied upon to keep his compatriot, Lucas Ribeiro Costa quiet. Ribeiro opened the scoring with a superb solo goal against Dortmund, but an errant pass from Ronwen Williams gifted Dortmund an equaliser.
Sundowns continued to make costly mistakes at the back, allowing Dortmund to go 4-1 ahead before the hour mark. However, Iqraam Rayners quickly pulled a goal back and substitute Lebo Mothiba gave them hope by scoring in the 90th minute. Dortmund were far from convincing, but managed to see out the win.
Fluminense had their own defensive difficulties against Ulsan and trailed 2-1 at half-time, but they overran the South Korean champions in the second half. They need only a draw against Sundowns to book their place in the top two in the group and thus their passage to the round of 16.
However, Sundowns - incidentally nicknamed 'the Brazilians' due to their yellow and blue home kit and attractive style of play - have proven they are capable of preventing them, at the very least, from having a smooth ride.
Key details:
Date: Wednesday, June 25 at 9:00 PM CAT (June 17, 7:00 PM GMT, June 17, 3:00 PM ET)
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Referee: Anthony Taylor ENG How to watch: The match is available on SuperSport.
Team news:
Cardoso was left with several selection headaches heading into the final fixture by the many solid performances from his players against Dortmund.
Notably, Tashreeq Matthews started on the wing and performed well, but so did youngster Kutlwano Letlhaku off the bench. Iqraam Rayners scored for the second straight Club World Cup match, but then Lebo Mothiba netted his first goal for Sundowns off the bench.
Expected lineups:
Mamelodi Sundowns
GK Ronwen Williams
LB Divine Lunga | CB Keanu Cupido | CB Grant Kekana | RB Khuliso Mudau
CM Marcelo Allende | CM Teboho Mokoena
AM Arthur Sales | AM Themba Zwane | AM Lucas Ribeiro Costa
ST Iqraam Rayners
Fluminense
GK Fábio
LB Gabriel Fuentes | CB Juan Pablo Freytes | CB Thiago Silva | RB Guga
CM Hércules | CM Matheus Martinelli
AM Kevin Serna | AM Ganso | AM Jhon Arias
ST Germán Cano
Stats:
Iqraam Rayners has scored 8 goals in his last 10 games in all competitions for Sundowns.
Mamelodi Sundowns had 60% of the possession against Borussia Dortmund and took 16 shots to Dortmund's 8.
Fluminense's Fábio (44 years, 8 months, 23 days as of Fluminense's win over Ulsan) is the second-oldest player in FIFA Club World Cup history, while Thiago Silva (40 years, 9 months) is the third-oldest.