I'm not a great cook, but if you lay out the exact ingredients -- already measured, prepped and ready to go -- on the kitchen counter, I'll happily make the meal. That's Tulane. Give the Green Wave turnovers and short fields, and they can plate points.
Ole Miss doesn't need the help. The Rebels are comfortable putting something together with whatever is left in the fridge. They can win clean or messy, scripted or improvised. The two teams' first meeting, a 45-10 Ole Miss win, showed exactly what happens when Tulane is forced to cook from scratch.
That's the tension heading into the third College Football Playoff matchup: a rematch with Ole Miss hosting Tulane, with the winner to face Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
The question isn't whether the Green Wave can score; it's whether they can do it without being handed the recipe.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
College Football Playoff First Round
No. 11 Tulane Green Wave at No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels -17.5
Saturday, Dec. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET
Records: Tulane 11-2, 1-1 vs. AP teams; Ole Miss 11-1, 2-1 vs. AP teams
Opening Line: Ole Miss -17.5, O/U 56.5
Money line: Tulane (+625); Ole Miss (-950)
Over/Under: 57.5 (O -112, U -108)
What Tulane actually is
A well-coached, well-balanced AAC team with a mobile quarterback and enough offensive competence to beat teams that let it dictate tempo. What Tulane isn't is explosive by default. Instead, the Green Wave are methodical, patient and comfortable winning ugly.
Tulane ranks 80th in plays per game but 26th in yards per play, maximizing efficiency inside a narrow framework through manageable downs. QB Jake Retzlaff is the entire offense. His legs create options; his decisions cap the ceiling. With a clean script, Tulane can move the ball, but when it can't, it struggles to manufacture points.
Defensively, Tulane is opportunistic but not dominant. Behind a top-25 pass rush is a vulnerable defense that's 77th in coverage, 84th in tackling and 101st against the run. Tulane's pressure matters only when it can force obvious passing downs or when it's not punished for overcommitting.
The 34-21 win over North Texas is an example. Tulane gave up yardage, allowing 415 yards in all, but benefited from three interceptions including a pick-six.
On the flip side, we saw what can happen when things go down as they did in the previous game this season against Ole Miss, when the Rebels put up 548 yards at 11.4 yards per pass and neutralized pressure with quarterback movement, including 112 rushing yards from Trinidad Chambliss.
And in Tulane's other loss this season? UTSA hung 523 yards on it with no turnovers.
When the Green Wave don't get gifts, they can get in trouble.
Why Ole Miss has multiple paths to cover -17.5
Ole Miss can cover a big spread with variety and play with or without tempo. If Tulane brings pressure, Ole Miss can lean on the run game with Kewan Lacy or QB mobility with Chambliss. If Tulane sits back, Ole Miss is content stacking first downs and letting efficiency create margin.
Being top 10 in plays per game and top 20 in points per play creates separation without relying on explosives. The red zone is where things widen. Ole Miss has 40 touchdowns on 65 red zone trips, whereas Tulane has just 31 on 55. Over four quarters, that difference shows up.
Betting consideration: Tulane UNDER 20.5 (-125)
The price isn't pretty, but it keeps landing here for a reason. Tulane's offense is 53rd in EPA per play, which means the Green Wave are pretty average once you account for down, distance and game situation. Against teams that don't hand them a short field, average rarely turns into multiple touchdowns.
For Tulane to clear this number, it needs turnovers or defensive scores. Ole Miss doesn't donate those.
I prefer to isolate Tulane instead of the full game UNDER 56.5 because the scoring limitation is one-sided. Ole Miss can score in multiple ways, but Tulane has to earn every point. The spread? It's a tricky one because Tulane can lose cleanly while still sneaking in a late score that breaks the spread without ever threatening the game itself.