Before the inception of the College Football Playoff and its subsequent expansion to 12 teams, December and early January were reserved for college football bowl games. Despite most not being contested for a chance at the national championship, bowl games were still genuinely meaningful, making them popular betting entities during the most wonderful time of the year.
The CFP's growing influence over the past few years has essentially allowed it to claim a monopoly on "important" games. With the transfer portal, coaching carousel and NFL draft prep shifting priorities, there has been a noticeable trend of players and coaches (plus entire teams) opting out of non-CFP bowl games. It's created a ripple effect on college football betting that extends to linemaking, sharp movement and handle.
Look no further than Notre Dame's stunning announcement that it would not accept a bowl game invitation after it was arguably snubbed from the CFP. Reports suggest ND would have played BYU in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, and DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello estimated to ESPN that the Irish would have been 11-point favorites over the Cougars at a neutral site. Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel put it at -13.5 -- but that's assuming there would be no opt-outs, a massive caveat in this era of college football.
"It turns more into an information-based handicapping level and an information-based line move. Spread and total based on personnel, coaching changes and any information you can get, and also just whether they're going to be motivated or not," Feazel told ESPN. He compared linemaking for these games, with their fluidity of information and abundance of unknowns, to linemaking for the NFL draft.
In a predominantly information-based market, speed is key and many bettors are looking to beat sportsbooks to the punch and get a favorable line before the books can move it.
"It's a race to information," said Feazel, noting the book gathers most of its intel from the same sources as bettors: social media and news conferences. "That's the name of the game. We're trying to get to that coin flip as quickly as possible, and bettors are trying to beat us to that coin flip as quickly as possible to get some value. That's what makes the job fun and challenging at times."
The transfer portal and increased prioritization of the NFL draft have created ample opportunity for players to opt out of bowl games, as the inability to play for a national championship trumps playing for pride or swag bags. Coaching changes can have an impact on which players will be available for non-CFP bowl games, as many players will enter the transfer portal to follow their coach to a different program.
Other times, a coaching change can have a more subtle effect on the betting line. For example, following the news that Nebraska parted ways with offensive line coach Donovan Raiola, rumors began circulating that his nephew, QB Dylan Raiola, may transfer. Utah opened as a 14-point favorite for the Las Vegas Bowl against the Cornhuskers and has jumped out to as far as -16.5 at some shops.
"It's a good team, it's got a good quarterback and good players, but some of those players elect not to play and therefore takes a little bit of steam out of the game itself," Avello said. "It's a lot of work for us because who's in and who's out, that makes a big difference on what the line should be."
The presence or absence of the head coaches themselves can also make a big difference. Though coaches will sometimes not manage a game after taking a new job elsewhere -- as it notoriously played out in the CFP -- the most notable example for this bowl cycle was probably the abrupt and shocking firing of Sherrone Moore from Michigan due to his inappropriate relationship with a team staffer. The Texas Longhorns, scheduled to face the Wolverines in the Citrus Bowl, have jumped out to 7-point favorites after opening at -4.5, per DraftKings odds.
Perhaps relatedly, the Citrus Bowl is the most-bet game by tickets and handle at BetMGM, with the Longhorns' spread drawing the most bets and money at the sportsbook. The handle volume is particularly notable given the matchup will be one of the final games of bowl season, and, as a general rule, sports bettors tend to gravitate toward more imminent contests. Two of the earliest games, the LA Bowl and the Cure Bowl, are BetMGM's next two most bet.
"A lot of times there's one or two games a day, and they do a fair amount of handle," Avello said of the early games. "The teams didn't have the greatest of seasons, but it is football. Everyone continues to watch college football. They look forward to the bowl games every year." He adds that the early bowls, generally involving lesser teams, used to be a great buildup in handle for the major bowl games that now are a part of the CFP.
Feazel said that while the New Year's adjacent games with marquee matchups will do handle comparable to a big matchup on a Saturday during the regular season, smaller bowls with Group of 5 teams will do handle comparable to a midweek regular-season MAC game ... so effectively, there could be little difference between the regular season and bowls given the talent involved.
While the books are sure to take plenty of wagers during the playoff, the non-CFP games becoming a smaller betting draw is just another byproduct, for better or worse, of the brave new world college football finds itself in.
"I don't want to be the old man, but bowl season used to mean something in the past," said Feazel. "It used to be a reward at the end of the season of being able to compete in one more final game. ... These bowl games were in standalone spots. NFL scouts would be out and just seeing if anybody was under their radar that's going to pop up in this game. And we're not seeing that in the same way."