Week 14 of the NFL season get underway with the Detroit Lions hosting the Dallas Cowboys on "Thursday Night Football" in a game with heavy playoff implications.
The Cowboys, who have won three straight to move to 6-5-1, are +290 to make the playoffs. The 7-5 Lions have dropped three of five, including a loss last week to division rival Green Bay. The Lions are in third place in the NFC North but are +115 to make the playoffs.
Neither team is currently in playoff position, but they are the top teams on the bubble in the NFC.
Detroit is a field-goal favorite in a game that has the highest point total of the week (54.5).
Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder offer their picks, prop bets, DFS plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings and subject to change.
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Game picks
Todd Archer breaks down the Cowboys' mindset heading into their big matchup vs. the Lions.
Notable player props, bets
Dak Prescott OVER 265.5 passing yards (-112)
Maldonado: Detroit's passing defense is falling apart, allowing explosive plays at a league-worst rate and back-to-back QB1/QB2 performances in fantasy to Jameis Winston and Jordan Love. The Lions' heavy man coverage and depleted secondary creates mismatch after mismatch in favor of the Cowboys. Game script only helps. Whether the Lions lead, the Cowboys lead or the teams trade scores, Dallas leans on Prescott's arm. This is volume, matchup and environment all pointing to the same direction.
Jahmyr Gibbs UNDER 15.5 rushing attempts (-115)
Solak: The Lions are down pass-catchers in a bad way, as Sam LaPorta and Kalif Raymond are out for this game, and Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) is likely to miss it as well. I'd wager we see Gibbs see an increase in touches through the air to account for the vacant targets, which will turn his rushing attempts down. Because he shares the backfield with David Montgomery, I prefer betting the under on rushing attempts rather than the over on receptions.
Field Yates breaks down Jameson Williams' ups and downs and why he's a top-15 WR in Week 14 vs. the Cowboys.
Jameson Williams OVER 80.5 receiving yards (-114)
Moody: Williams has surpassed this line in three of his last four games. He's in a good spot whether St. Brown is active or not. The Cowboys have given up the second-most passing yards per game to wide receivers, and the combination of target volume, offensive role and matchup all point to another big performance from Williams.
Gibbs OVER 6.5 first-quarter receiving yards (-109)
Bowen: This is more about Dan Campbell utilizing Gibbs early versus the Dallas defense. And Gibbs can hit the over on one screen concept or an underneath checkdown when the Cowboys get depth in their foundational zone schemes.
Gibbs OVER 4.5 receptions (-127)
Walder: All year long I've advocated for reception overs against Dallas, because running backs catch passes against zone coverage 15% of the time -- almost twice as often than when facing man coverage (8%) -- and the Cowboys have run zone coverage 72% of the time this, the second-most in the NFL. Plus, since Week 11 (Dallas' first game with Quinnen Williams) the Cowboys actually rank second in run stop win rate, so I think the Lions will be more likely to want to get the ball to Gibbs via the passing game.
Daily Fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Dan Orlovsky breaks down a Dak Prescott touchdown throw to CeeDee Lamb using the NFL's pro visualizer technology.
Bowen's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Prescott ($15,600) has thrown for 320 or more yards in each of his last two games, with multiple touchdown passes in each. Plus, Prescott will have matchup advantages to take with George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. I think Dak plays big on Thursday night, using his pocket mobility to manage passing downs.
Also in my lineup: Jake Ferguson ($7,400). Ferguson has one touchdown catch over his last three games, but he has at least five targets in each. I'll take that volume with Ferguson working the seams, and he could play a role in the red zone as a target for Prescott on play-action.
Maldonado's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Prescott ($15,600) has the highest floor and the highest ceiling. Plus, the game script can't hurt him. If the Lions are leading, Prescott throws. If it's a shootout, Prescott throws. If the Cowboys lead, they still throw because that's how they move the ball.
Also in my lineup: Lamb ($9,600). Detroit's man coverage and single-high looks create a constant isolation matchup that Lamb wins. His target share, red zone involvement and explosive-play upside give him multiple paths to a slate-breaking performance. If Prescott smashes, Lamb is coming with him.
Moody's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Gibbs ($16,500) had 11.6 fantasy points last week but totaled 113.2 over the three weeks before that. The Cowboys defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Gibbs should stay busy as both a runner and receiver in what is expected to be a high-scoring game.
Also in my lineup: Isaac TeSlaa ($6,600) is one of the top values in this game with the Cowboys having allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. He should have a more stable role with St. Brown and Raymond both dealing with ankle injuries and doubtful to play. TeSlaa has averaged 16.7 yards per reception this season.
Solak's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Jameson Williams ($12,600) has always been an intriguing zag at captain for his big-play potential, which allows him to dramatically outscore other Lions pass-catchers. Without St. Brown and against a week secondary, Williams could see 30% of the target share and hit a few home runs, giving him slate-tipping upside.
Also in my lineup: Brandon Aubrey ($5,400) is a must-have in any Cowboys lineup with such a high total (54.5 points). If the Cowboys' offensive production is spread over multiple players, Aubrey becomes a cheaper option that allows you to jam more expensive Lions into your lineup. Because the game is in a dome, the potential for multiple 50-plus yarders is also enticing.
Walder's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Jared Goff ($15,000). This game has the potential to be a monster passing game for both sides. With the aforementioned improvement in Dallas' run defense, the Lions are going to lean even more heavily on Goff.
Also in my lineup: Gibbs ($11,000). Yes, putting Goff and Gibbs together means we're going to have to squeeze elsewhere in this lineup, but this comes back to the bet I recommended: I think the Lions are going to be looking for a huge receiving game from Gibbs. By pairing him and Goff together, we're playing the correlation game in the event I'm right.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Lions are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss (lost last instance).
The Lions are 0-3 ATS in their last three games, one shy of their longest ATS losing streak under Dan Campbell (four straight in 2022).
Overs are 8-4 in Cowboys games this season, the highest over rate in the NFL.
The Cowboys are 3-0 ATS in their last three games and 5-1 ATS as underdogs this season.