Week 13 of the NFL season wraps up with the New England Patriots hosting the New York Giants on "Monday Night Football."
The Patriots have won nine straight and sit atop the AFC East at 10-2. Meanwhile, the Giants have lost six straight and are in last place in the NFC East at 2-10.
There is some good news for the Giants, however, as rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart cleared concussion protocol and will return to the lineup against the Patriots.
New England is a 7.5-point favorite for Monday's game.
Matt Bowen, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Ben Solak and Seth Walder offer their picks, prop plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings and subject to change.
Jump to:
Picks | Props | DFS tips | Trends
Game bets
Total points UNDER 46.5 (-112)
Maldonado: New England controls pace, wins time of possession, and forces long, methodical drives rather than explosive plays. The Patriots' pass defense is disciplined and their pressure rate at home will disrupt Dart, which often leads to the Giants' offense collapsing as they're forced into obvious passing situations. With the Patriots missing two starting linemen and leaning on efficiency over aggression, this projects as a slower, lower-scoring game.
Giants +7.5 (-120)
Solak: Let the Los Angeles Rams' loss to the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos' last-play win over the Washington Commanders serve as a warning. I expect a highly-impassioned Giants team in Game 2 under Mike Kafka and with Jaxson Dart back in the starting lineup. The Patriots have multiple offensive linemen out for this game and multiple defensive linemen questionable. This should be a one-score game all the way through.
Giants +7.5 (-120)
Walder: The difference between these two teams is not nearly as large as it seems. There are two factors creating this illusion.
1. Strength of schedule. Entering Week 13, the Patriots had played the easiest schedule in the NFL. And the Giants? They've played the hardest.
2. Dart. The Giants have only had seven games with Dart starting, which is why we can't look only at their season-long numbers to judge this team. They are a much better team with him on the field. With Dart playing, the Giants have averaged .07 EPA per play on offense -- better than the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles.
Notable player props, bets
Cam Newton questions how the Patriots will perform against playoff teams after an easy regular-season schedule.
Drake Maye OVER 30.5 pass attempts (-105)
Walder: The Patriots have run designed pass plays 61% of the time, the 14th-highest rate in the league. But if we adjust for game state and instead look at pass rate over expectation by NFL Next Gen Stats, New England actually moves up to the fourth-most pass-heavy team in the league (plus-3%). My model prices this over at -152 without knowing I like the Giants against the spread (see above!). If I'm right about that, that makes Maye's over even more likely to hit because he'll be less likely to find himself in a run-out-the-clock game script.
TreVeyon Henderson 70+ rushing yards (+104)
Bowen: Let's play the matchup with Henderson here. The Giants defense is allowing a league-worst 157.2 rushing yards per game. Henderson will see volume on Monday night, and we know he can create explosive plays.
Theo Johnson OVER 32.5 receiving yards (-109)
Loza: The run game is, understandably, pulling focus in this matchup, but there are points to be had through the air. New England has struggled to defend the pass, particularly in short-yardage situations. Meanwhile, Johnson ranks second on the Giants in routes run, targets drawn, catches collected and receiving yards registered since Dart took over in late September. Additionally, Johnson has gone over 35 receiving yards for three straight weeks, and he averaged 38 receiving yards with Dart as the starter from Weeks 4 through 10. As 7.5-point underdogs likely to be chasing points, and given that the Patriots have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends, Johnson figures to flirt with upward of 40 receiving yards.
Daily Fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Drake Maye ($17,700). I'm going with Maye and his dual-threat ability versus the Giants defense. Maye has thrown for over 270 yards in three straight games, with 20 or more rushing yards in three of his past five.
Also in my lineup: Theo Johnson ($5,800). Let's take a shot on Johnson with Dart back under center for the Giants. New England is allowing an average of 63.3 yards per game to opposing tight ends, and Johnson has the ability to stretch the seams while making himself available to Dart in the red zone.
Solak's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): TreVeyon Henderson ($12,000). The Giants have the worst run defense in football by success rate and yards allowed before contact. Rhamondre Stevenson is back in this game, but we know what Henderson can do if he gets to the second and third level unimpeded. On two passing teams that like to spread the production around, the best bet for a peak performance is in Henderson's home-run ability.
Also in my lineup: Isaiah Hodgins ($3,600). One of the first transactions of the post-Brian Daboll era was the signing of Hodgins off the Pittsburgh Steelers' practice squad. A cult hero for his sudden ascension to WR1, Hodgins has returned to a high-value role in New York. He has run a route on 74.3% of the team's dropbacks and earned a target on 23.1%. That's an every-down role for cheap.
Walder's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Kayshon Boutte ($10,200). Perhaps no receiver in the NFL has a more boom-or-bust profile than Boutte. The Patriots receiver runs a deep fade or go route 32% of the time, the highest rate among all players with at least 150 routes this year by a mile. In an upside-driven game like DFS, I want to maximize that boom potential.
Also in my lineup: Giants D/ST ($3,200). I'd have been tempted to go with this pick regardless, but with Will Campbell out, that makes the Patriots especially vulnerable to the Giants' pass rush. Since the start of last season, backup tackle Vederian Lowe has an 86.3% pass block win rate at tackle, which would rank 63rd out of 70 qualifying tackles this year. That weakness increases the chances of a turnover and defensive score.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Giants are 8-15 ATS on the road since 2023. They are 0-6 outright on the road this season (3-3 ATS).
The over has hit in five of the Giants' past six games when facing a team with a winning record.
New England is 7-1 ATS in its past eight games.
The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their past six games against teams with losing records.
The Patriots have won their past four home games.