Betting Commanders-Chiefs: Big edge to KC with Daniels out; pace points to the under on game total

Week 8 of the NFL season wraps up with the Washington Commanders visiting the Kansas City Chiefs on "Monday Night Football."

The Commanders will be without quarterback Jayden Daniels (hamstring), leaving veteran Marcus Mariota to take the reins in his stead. Washington has lost two straight to drop to 3-4 on the season.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have righted the ship, having won four of five after starting 0-2. The Chiefs' Super Bowl odds were as long as 14-1 entering Week 3, but Kansas City is now the outright favorite at +500. Patrick Mahomes is the MVP favorite at +150 after his odds were as long as 25-1 entering Week 4.

The Chiefs are big favorites against the Commanders, who get Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel back in the lineup.

Matt Bowen, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado and Ben Solak offer their picks, prop plays and analysis to help you bet Monday's game.

Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.

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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends

Game bets

Chiefs -11.5 (-105)

Maldonado: No Jayden Daniels is a big deal. He leads the Commanders in total offense and rushing touchdowns. Washington is also without top pass rusher Dorance Armstrong, who will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. The Chiefs might not be flashy, but they are formidable. Patrick Mahomes is playing some of his most efficient football, and the defense is elite. The only flaw is situational execution in close games, but this matchup won't be close. Kansas City's precision passing, defensive discipline and pace control set up perfectly against Washington's chaos without Daniels.

Notable player props, bets

Patrick Mahomes to go UNDER 34.5 pass attempts (-120)

Solak: I expect the Commanders to try to shorten this game with a heavy dose of running the football -- and it's not like the Chiefs play at a screaming pace, either. Meanwhile, the Commanders are surrendering one of the highest explosive pass rates to opposing offenses. If Mahomes can get down the field in chunks, he won't need a high volume of passing attempts to put points on the board. I like a large spread that implies a run-heavy second half -- the Chiefs are an automatic second-half under team when they have a big lead -- and will look to live bet that under as well, if Mahomes has a pass-happy first half.

Marcus Mariota longest rush OVER 10.5 yards (-130)

Loza: Mariota has managed a run of 20 or more yards in each of his three appearances thus far into his 2025 campaign. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs (26.7 per game). More specifically, Kansas City has given up eight QB rushes that have gone for 10 or more yards, which is the fifth most in the NFL this season. As a double-digit road underdog, Washington will have to put the ball in the air, but that won't stop Mariota from utilizing his best asset on Monday night.