Week 8 betting: Will Broncos' magic carry over vs. Cowboys? Swift stays hot for Bears?

Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find value.

Ben Solak is out this week, so Matt Bowen is filling in with his own unique style.

Bowen and Seth Walder bring different perspectives on how they approach sports betting. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets.

These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.

With that, let's dive into Week 8. As always, odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook.

Note: Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.

Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props

Game bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers-New Orleans Saints total points UNDER 46.5 (-115)

The Saints are averaging just 16.9 points (29th in the league), and quarterback Spencer Rattler will see a Tampa Bay defense that changes the post-snap picture while registering top 10 blitz and pressure rates. I like Todd Bowles' unit in this matchup. Plus, the Buccaneers are dealing with injuries at wide receiver again, as Mike Evans (collarbone) is likely down for the season and Chris Godwin Jr. (fibula) will not play Sunday. Yes, quarterback Baker Mayfield will make plays, but I like the under to hit here. -- Bowen

Denver Broncos team total OVER 27.5 (-105)

The Broncos scored 33 fourth-quarter points in the Week 7 comeback win over the Giants, and I would expect Sean Payton to have his zone-beaters dialed up Sunday. Lots of schemed throws for quarterback Bo Nix in this one. The Dallas defense is giving up 29.4 points per game this season, and it ranks in the bottom five versus the run and pass. Payton's unit should score points. -- Bowen

Two-team, 6-point teaser: Buffalo Bills -1.5 at Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots -0.5

Coming off a bye, I'll tease the Bills down to -1.5 on the road. Panthers backup quarterback Andy Dalton gets the start for an injured Bryce Young (ankle) versus a Bills defense that ranks second in the league with a pressure rate of 38.9%. This is where the Bills can create takeaways and field position for Josh Allen, who has thrown for multiple touchdowns in five of six games played this season.

For the other side, let's go with the Patriots. This is really about Mike Vrabel's defense. The Patriots are giving up only 3.4 yards per carry (third lowest in the league), and that works versus a run-heavy Browns team featuring rookie running back Quinshon Judkins. If the Patriots limit Judkins, can Cleveland quarterback Dillon Gabriel create enough explosives in the pass game? I don't see it. So, let's tease the spread down to -0.5 points, as Drake Maye does enough to get points on the board. -- Bowen

Seth Walder's defensive props

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Note: Props will be added this weekend as odds become available.

Offensive player props

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Tua Tagovailoa to go OVER 31.5 pass attempts (-115)

I understand the vibes in Miami, and specifically around Tagovailoa, are bad. But the same rules apply to the Dolphins as anyone else: If they fall behind, game script dictates they'll have to pass to try to catch up. And Miami has not been particularly run-heavy this year, with a negative-2% pass rate over expectation, 18th highest in the league, per NFL Next Gen Stats. There's one other factor that's not in the model and I'm not even sure matters, but I think it's worth bringing up: The Dolphins have extreme efficiency splits this year in man vs. zone, playing significantly better in the pass game against man. And the Falcons play 58% man coverage, second most in the NFL. Does that mean Miami might pass a little more against Atlanta than it would otherwise? I'm not sure, but I don't think it can hurt. -- Walder

Caleb Williams to go OVER 0.5 INTs (+125)

Williams' 1.4% interception rate is better than average. But that's not the only factor we ought to consider when forecasting his probability of throwing a pick this weekend. Most notably, the Bears are currently 6.5-point underdogs to the Ravens. Regardless of Baltimore's defensive ability -- and granted, the Ravens have severely struggled on defense this year -- the most likely scenario here is that the Bears are behind and Williams is forced into must-pass situations. Each additional pass attempt carries risk of an interception, and clear passing situations result in more interceptions per dropback, too. Plus, Williams has struggled with accuracy this season, recording a negative-10% completion percentage over expectation (worst among QBR-qualified quarterbacks) and a 22% off-target rate (second worst). My model makes the over -110, so I'll happily take the decent plus-money. -- Walder

Joe Flacco to go OVER 0.5 INTs (-105)

Flacco has yet to throw an interception in his two starts with the Bengals despite over 45 pass attempts. And the winless Jets are still without a pick on the season. Not good. But we know that Flacco can be overaggressive, even borderline reckless, with the ball. I think the Jets finally get an interception Sunday. Remember, tips and overthrows can lead to picks too. -- Bowen

Daniel Jones to go OVER 12.5 rushing yards (-115)

Jones had 27 yards rushing on four carries in the first meeting of the season versus Tennessee (Week 3), and he has topped the 20-yard mark in three games this season. Yes, the designed rushes have been down this season for Jones in Indianapolis, but with the amount of boot concepts I see on the tape, Jones can hit the over by pulling the ball down to run once he gets on the edges. -- Bowen

D'Andre Swift to go OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-115)

Swift has back-to-back games with 100-plus rushing yards and has seen at least 14 carries in each of his past three. He looks fast and decisive with the ball behind a Bears offensive line that has been creating movement up front since returning from the bye. Let's take Swift to hit the over versus a Ravens defense that is giving up an average of 134.3 rushing yards this season. -- Bowen

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Rico Dowdle to go OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-125)

The Panthers went back to a backfield split in Week 7 with Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard. However, Dowdle still finished with 79 yards on 17 carries, and he gets a Bills defense Sunday that is giving up a league-worst 5.8 yards per carry. Plus, Dowdle has been one of the most explosive runners I've watched on tape this season. -- Bowen

RJ Harvey to go OVER 2.5 receptions (+115)

It finally happened -- a running back with receptions against the Cowboys lost. That was Jacory Croskey-Merritt in Week 7, managing just one reception against Dallas. But one loss hardly causes me to waver in my belief that the market is not fully pricing in the fact that the running backs catch passes almost twice as frequently when facing zone coverage compared to man -- and that the Cowboys are playing zone 76% of the time. That has come down a bit from where they were, but that's still the fourth-highest zone coverage rate by any team through Week 7 in our dataset back to 2017. -- Walder

Kayshon Boutte to record 80+ receiving yards (+800)

I have twice in this column included Boutte receiving alts. Sadly, neither of those bets came in one of his big yardage weeks. But I still believe! In fact, I thought after Boutte recorded 93 and 55 receiving yards in his past two games, respectively, that I might have missed the boat. But these odds suggest not. I've written about how my strategy with these alts -- which, if you check the results, you'll notice has been failing quite miserably! -- is that we want to target deep threats because of their high variance route profile. And no one is even close to Boutte in this department, as 36.5% of his routes are either deep fades or goes. The next highest rate among wide receivers with at least 100 routes is 23% (Quentin Johnston, heading into Thursday night). So Boutte is probably more boom-or-bust than the average receiver, which is exactly what we want when opting for a high-upside alt like this. -- Walder

Tez Johnson to go OVER 42.5 receiving yards (-115)

No Mike Evans or Chris Godwin Jr. this week for the Buccaneers, so let's take the upside of Johnson versus the Saints. A big-play target down the field, Johnson is also slippery after the catch. In his past two games, Johnson has at least 45 yards receiving, and his nine targets in the Monday night loss to Detroit tied for a team high. -- Bowen

Courtland Sutton to score anytime TD (+140)

Sutton hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 4, but he has seen an end zone target in each of his past two games. Against a Dallas defense that has allowed 16 touchdown passes this season (second most), look for Sutton to get loose on a slot fade for six points. -- Bowen