It's Week 9, and the storylines are starting to matter as much as the numbers.
Illinois is still fighting for a spot in the playoff conversation. Georgia Tech is quietly trying to stay perfect. Cincinnati is sitting at the top of the Big 12, looking to prove it belongs. Throw in an Auburn-Arkansas matchup, which is pure chaos waiting to happen, and we've got a solid blend of wager options.
Four games, four chances to find the edges that make this sport beautiful and maybe a little profitable.
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 23 Illinois at Washington
Pick: Illinois +4.5
You see me talk a lot about the pass rush. To me, it's the most important data point when the disparity is large enough.
Illinois has a top 10 pass rush. It is disruptive. When Demond Williams Jr. is kept clean, he completes 78% of his passes for more than 10 yards per attempt. Under pressure though, that number falls to 55%.
But here's something that could matter -- Williams has thrown four interceptions this season. Three came when he was kept clean, all four when he wasn't blitzed and he threw three in one game against Michigan last week.
He has shown the struggles against defenses that sit back, rush four and make him read coverages instead of reacting to pressure. Illinois can do exactly that. It is one of the few teams that can generate disruption with just its front, keeping seven in coverage to confuse his reads.
That style is the counter to Washington's rhythm-based offense. If Illinois gets pressure without sending extras, that rhythm breaks. Combine that with how well Illinois played Ohio State compared to when Washington hosted the Buckeyes, and the gap tightens even more.
This matchup is about a defense built to pressure naturally versus a quarterback who overthinks when he has time. That's how you create chaos, steal a possession or two and make a favorite sweat at home.
Syracuse at No. 7 Georgia Tech
Pick: UNDER 52.5
This wager is a belief in how inefficient Syracuse has been despite its pace. The Orange run the fifth-most plays per game but sit in the bottom 15 in yards per play. They move fast but don't move far, the definition of wasted motion. The volume looks good on paper, yet the results say otherwise.
Georgia Tech sits on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Yellow Jackets average only 66 plays per game, but 20th in yards per play. They are efficient, not fast. Their offense is built around balance and time of possession, not tempo. They can run the ball, chew clock and finish drives without needing a shootout.
When you combine Syracuse's inefficiency with Georgia Tech's measured rhythm, the math works against the total. Syracuse turns possessions into time rather than points. Georgia Tech limits possessions by controlling the ground game, led by one of the best mobile quarterbacks in the country in Haynes King. Both defenses are middle of the pack in third-down conversions allowed, which keeps drives long but ultimately unproductive.
The pace will be there, but the payoff will not.
Baylor at No. 21 Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati OVER 35.5
Sometimes a number tells you everything you need to know. Cincinnati is fourth in the FBS in Offensive EPA per play (+0.26), meaning every snap it runs carries an expected value. Efficiency like that is the mark of a team that knows how to finish drives, convert in the red zone and turn possessions into points.
Quarterback Brendan Sorsby has been nearly flawless, completing over 65% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and just one interception, averaging 9.6 yards per attempt. The offensive line has allowed only two sacks all season, and the backfield averages six yards a carry. It's balance, precision and mega-clean execution. Add in a 78.6% red zone touchdown rate, and this offense simply doesn't waste opportunities.
That's a perfect recipe against Baylor's defense that won't provide resistance. The unit is 120th in pass rush grade with only seven sacks, meaning Sorsby should have all day to throw. With Baylor's inefficiency in limiting touchdowns, once the Bearcats cross midfield, they're likely to cash in.
The number 35.5 implies regression from what this offense has already shown. Cincinnati has hit 37 or more in four of its past five games and the metrics support another one. This offense -- against that defense -- adds up to points.
Auburn at Arkansas
Pick: OVER 56.5
Arkansas is averaging 7.4 yards per play, the fourth-highest mark in the country. That's the story. That's the wager. Auburn's is 126th in EPA/pass and 131st in coverage, which means every deep shot, every broken play and every quarterback scramble has the potential to flip the field.
Taylen Green doesn't need 40 attempts to score points. He just needs a few of those explosive drives to connect, and they usually do.
Auburn's strength is against the run, but that doesn't matter as much when the matchup weakness is this severe. Arkansas is one of the most efficient teams in the red zone, converting 25 of 30 trips into touchdowns. Auburn's secondary can't keep pace with a quarterback averaging nearly nine yards per attempt and a balanced offense that gains chunk yardage from every angle.
Even if Auburn plays to its identity, running the ball and eating clock, its success on the ground will still extend drives. Arkansas's defense allows nearly the same efficiency on the other side. When both teams move the ball at this rate, possessions multiply and points follow.