It's a meeting of momentum in Nashville between No. 15 Missouri and No. 10 Vanderbilt, with both teams sitting at 6-1.
For Vanderbilt, this one carries a little extra weight. The Commodores have cracked the top 10 for the first time since 1947, a nod to just how far this program has come.
Missouri, meanwhile, keeps proving it belongs among the SEC's most balanced teams, building wins on physical play and defensive discipline.
Saturday's matchup is a measuring stick for whether Vanderbilt's rise is real and if Missouri's toughness can travel for a second-straight week.
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 15 Missouri Tigers at No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Vanderbilt -2.5
Money line: Vanderbilt (-140), Missouri (+120)
Over/Under: 52.5 (O Even, U -120)
How Missouri can flip the matchup through pressure
If Missouri wins in Nashville, it'll come from owning the trenches and controlling tempo.
Missouri's front is nasty, ranked sixth in total pressures and top-five against the run. That kind of combo can wreck rhythm and take away what makes Diego Pavia dangerous.
Missouri doesn't need to win in a shootout. They just need to be themselves, create long drives, protect Beau Pribula and finish in the red zone instead of settling. Vanderbilt has allowed touchdowns on 60% of red-zone trips, and Missouri has scored on nearly 70% of theirs. That difference in short-field execution can flip the game.
If Pribula continues completing around 70% of his passes and the Tigers' backs stay over five yards per carry, they can play their style of football and keep Vanderbilt's explosive offense watching from the sideline.
The key is balance and patience, lean on the run, stay ahead of the sticks and let their top-20 tackling on defense finish the job late. If Missouri plays to its profile, physical, and disciplined, it's not just a cover candidate. Missouri gets overlooked because it's a team that is built to win grinders, and this one sets up perfectly for that formula.
Why UNDER 52.5 make sense: tempo gap
Missouri runs more plays per game than anyone in the country, but that doesn't mean speed. It means control. Vanderbilt is 117th in plays per game, playing one of the slowest tempos in FBS.
That's not necessarily a bad thing, it's just deliberate. The Commodores sustain drives with efficiency rather than speed, and their style shortens games. That tempo gap matters -- fewer plays means fewer chances to score, and that's exactly what you want when you're holding an under ticket. Unless one team creates multiple short fields through turnovers or special teams, the pace alone justifies the under.
Betting consideration: Vanderbilt -2.5
It starts with the offense. Vanderbilt is elite by every efficiency metric, second in success rate and eighth in EPA per play, which means the Commodores aren't relying on luck or big plays to score; they're methodically consistent, extending drives at one of the highest rates in the country and forcing defenses to play perfect for four quarters.
Pavia is playing with confidence as a dual-threat quarterback, a balance that forces defenses to pick their poison, while Missouri's profile quietly leans vulnerable. The Tigers have allowed only 14 total touchdowns, but they sit 69th nationally in rushing success rate allowed. Vanderbilt's balance can stretch that structure until it breaks.
Field position is another hidden edge. Vanderbilt is sixth nationally in net field position at +6.5, while Missouri sits near the bottom at -1.2. That difference means shorter fields, easier drives and better red-zone opportunities. Speaking of which, Vanderbilt has converted 80% of red-zone trips into touchdowns this season, compared to Missouri's 53% in conference play.
Add in the home field and late-game fatigue with Missouri on its second straight road test against a strong SEC front and this sets up well for Vanderbilt to control the game. Pavia's mobility neutralizes Missouri's pressure, their short fields create scoring margin, and their offensive consistency sustains it -- all to cover -2.5 at home.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
Vanderbilt had never been a favorite against a ranked team since the FBS/FCS split before last week, and now this is the second straight week being favored against a ranked opponent.
Missouri is 8-2 ATS on the road since 2023, which is best in FBS over span.
Vanderbilt is seeking wins vs. ranked opponents in consecutive games for the first time in program history.
The Tigers are 5-1 ATS against Top-10 teams over the last five years, third best in FBS (min. 5 games)/
The Commodores are 9-1 ATS when the spread is less than 3 points since 2018, best in FBS.
This is the first time Vanderbilt is favored in consecutive games against power conference teams since 2018.