Every season tricks us a little. A bad game gets written off as a fluke and hope builds around the idea of a bounce back.
That's where Illinois is right now. Many bettors seem to think the blowout loss to Indiana was a one-off, and you can see that in the market with the line in this game against Ohio State tightening from an opening 16 points to 14.5. Maybe it is a turning point, or maybe that game was a preview of what this Fighting Illini team actually is: good and competitive, but still a step below the sport's elite.
Either way, we're about to find out when they face the No. 1 team in the country.
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 17 Illinois Fighting Illini
Saturday, Noon ET, FOX
Line: Ohio State -14.5
Money line: Ohio State (-750), Illinois (+475)
Over/Under: 49.5 (O -120, U Even)
Illinois is built to win, not break through
My preseason read on the Illini is holding up. I didn't buy the hype back in August. I was fading the inflated perception of who they were and that's exactly how this season has unfolded through six weeks of football.
Illinois is a solid football team. That part is not up for debate. They're disciplined, talented and deep enough to dominate 80% of their schedule. They handle business against the teams they're supposed to beat, protect the football and are well-coached. But when the competition gets tougher and the margin for error shrinks, you see the ceiling.
It's the same story we've seen with Penn State for years. Beat the middle and bottom of the conference with ease, but struggle when the team across the field has equal or better talent. Illinois is showing signs of being cut from that same cloth.
The Illini still haven't found a reliable difference-maker in the run game, haven't been disruptive enough against good offensive lines, and most of their best statistical days have come against teams that had no shot.
In fact, Illinois' defense has produced just five sacks in their last three games, and the bulk of their pressure production came in Week 1 against an FCS opponent (Western Illinois) and a 38-0 blowout over Western Michigan in Week 3.
And when they faced a defense with top-10 talent in Indiana, the offense fell apart; it produced a lone third-down conversion and just 161 total yards, 59 of which came on a single play.
This is still a team that will win games, but that's where the ceiling conversation enters the chat. Illinois is a heavyweight who can knock out every opponent in the gym but keeps losing when the title fight comes around.
Until Illinois shows it can hang with the top tier, it will remain a program that's really good, but not yet great.
And this weekend against Ohio State is the measuring stick.
Betting consideration: Ohio State -14.5
If this comes down to red zone production, the gap is massive.
Illinois has allowed 13 touchdowns on 18 red zone trips this season. Ohio State's defense hasn't allowed a single red zone touchdown all season. Over four quarters, that difference is how double-digit favorites cover spreads.
To even attempt a red zone score, Illinois would need to get there first. They may be solid and efficient, and have a top-20 passing unit, but they're also limited as a one-dimensional offense. They rank 72nd in rushing success. Indiana showed us the blueprint: stop the run and force Illinois into obvious passing situations.
And while Luke Altmyer hasn't thrown an interception, that's more about scheme than elite QB play. More than half his throws are short or behind the line of scrimmage. Altmyer's ability to take care of the football sounds stellar until you realize the Illini barely push the ball downfield.
That style is effective against average secondaries, but against Ohio State's pass rush and top-20 coverage unit, it limits explosive plays and caps their scoring ability. If Altmyer and Co. fall behind, they don't have the firepower to chase.
I lean strongly toward Ohio State -14.5, especially at the discounted line from the 16-point opener, since Illinois' scoring likely tops around 17 points. Over four quarters, the red zone gap, the secondary mismatch and the depth differential will separate these teams.
This game is less about what Ohio State can do and more about whether Illinois can score enough to matter. Right now, the answer looks like a no. Keep an eye on the spread. With early money on Illinois, you may be able to grab a clean 14 or better by kickoff.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
Illinois is 5-1 ATS this season, including 3-0 ATS at home. Ohio State is 4-1 ATS this season.
Ohio State has covered seven straight against ranked teams.
Illinois is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against top-5 teams (since 2002). The last five of those games went under the total.
Illinois is 19-10 ATS as an underdog under Bret Bielema.