The struggling Miami Dolphins won't get much of a reprieve after their late loss to the New England Patriots on Sunday, as they now turn around and welcome the AFC favorite Buffalo Bills to town.
The Bills are 2-0 coming off wins over the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets. The spread on this game opened at 11.5, but has settled in at 10.5 on Thursday. Bills QB Josh Allen is currently the +300 favorite to win MVP at ESPN BET and carries a 20-7 record in prime-time games.
We asked our expert panel of Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Seth Walder for their best picks and props ahead of Thursday night's action.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.
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Game picks | Prop bets
Game bets
Bills team total OVER 31.5
Pamela Maldonado: Buffalo is averaging 35.5 points through two games, second most in the league. The Bills' offense is a product of balance. Josh Allen is efficient and James Cook has been a reliable RB1, both of which are allowing the Bills to finish drives. They are 6-for-6 in the red zone so far.
Miami's defense is a mess, ranking last in EPA. Opponents are scoring on 75% of their drives, converting more than half of their third downs, and have allowed two quarterbacks to finish top-three in weekly fantasy scoring. The Dolphins are not down on their luck, they just lack structure. The concern with laying a big number is always the back door, but with a team total, you only need Buffalo to keep doing what it has been doing so far: produce. I'm isolating the Bills' efficiency against Miami's collapse.
Notable player props, bets
De'Von Achane over 50 yards receiving (+160)
Matt Bowen: Achane had 90 yards receiving (on eight receptions) in Miami's Week 2 loss to the Patriots, and he has seen 14 targets over the first two weeks of the season. Negative game flow could force the Dolphins to throw with more volume on Thursday night, plus the Bills' zone-heavy defensive structure will create opportunities for Achane to release underneath as an outlet for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Dalton Kincaid 4+ receptions (+135)
Maldonado: This is a sneaky prop to target. Miami has allowed the third-highest target rate to tight ends, and Kincaid just had six looks last week, targeted on 20% of his routes. With Buffalo carrying a four-touchdown implied team total, there will be enough drives to spread the ball around, making four catches at plus money within reach. If the Bills do indeed pile up points, the tight end volume should show up.
Tyreek Hill longest reception over 23.5 yards (-105)
Eric Moody: The spread suggests this game could turn into a blowout, forcing Tagovailoa to lean on the passing game and feed Hill plenty of targets as Miami plays catchup. Hill cleared this line with a 47-yard reception against the Patriots in Week 2. Buffalo's defense looked shaky against the Ravens in Week 1, and its performance against the Jets in Week 2 isn't much to put stock in. If the Bills' secondary shows cracks again, Hill has the speed to cash this prop bet.
Khalil Shakir 110+ receiving yards (+1500)
Seth Walder: Shakir's target rate is down to 20% (from 29% last season) through two games, but two other numbers make me more bullish on the tail outcome we're playing here.
First, he's actually playing more, running routes on 68% of Bills dropbacks compared to 60% a year ago, and his air yards per target is way up from 5.3 to 9.8. Then consider that Miami's already bleak secondary is banged up and Shakir should mostly face fifth-round rookie Jason Marshall Jr. in the slot, and there's more receiving yards potential than this line suggests. My model makes this line +1023.