Michigan heads to Norman to face Oklahoma in Week 2 of the 2025 college football season. The Sooners have a quarterback with an elite arm, the Wolverines have retooled their offense, and both teams enter with plenty to prove after Week 1 matchups against softer competition.
If you're looking for value, there are edges to be found, but only if you know where to look.
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No. 15 Michigan Wolverines at No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Line: Oklahoma -4.5, O/U 45.5
Money line: Michigan (+165), Oklahoma (-195)
Over/Under: 45.5 (O -105, U -115)
Why backing Michigan +4.5 is worth a look
Based on both preseason expectations and Week 1 data, Michigan +4.5 deserves consideration. The Wolverines are built to challenge Oklahoma in ways Illinois State could not. Sooners quarterback John Mateer, the prized transfer from Washington State, brings explosiveness after accounting for 44 total touchdowns last season with the Cougars, but his mobility also helped hide protection concerns.
While he was sacked just once in Week 1, Oklahoma's offensive line graded poorly in run blocking, ranking 95th at PFF, and averaged only 3.2 yards per carry. Against a Michigan front that generated three sacks last week, staying ahead of schedule will be critical.
If the Sooners face too many third-and-longs, Mateer will be forced into high-risk throws against a defense that knows how to capitalize on mistakes. Michigan's secondary thrives on disruption, forcing three interceptions against New Mexico last week after ranking 24th nationally in passes defended in 2024.
The Wolverines' offense finally looks balanced with more big-play potential having Bryce Underwood at quarterback. The freshman went 21 of 31 for 251 yards (8.1 yards per attempt), showing poise and control of the offense. However, the real engine was running back Justice Haynes, who erupted for 159 yards and three touchdowns on 16 carries, averaging 9.9 yards per attempt.
Michigan rushed for 201 yards overall, setting the tone early and forcing the Lobos defense to choose between loading the box or exposing themselves to vertical shots.
Defending the run has not been Oklahoma's strength. The Sooners allowed 118 rushing yards to Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner last season and 155 to Navy quarterback Blake Horvath. If they cannot control the line of scrimmage, Michigan's ground game can dictate tempo and keep Mateer watching from the sideline. Oklahoma's passing attack is dangerous, but Michigan's balance, turnover creation and control on the ground makes this matchup much tighter.
The counter to this is straightforward. Oklahoma can cover -4.5 if Mateer hits splash plays early, the Sooners finish drives without turnovers, and Michigan's run game gets stuffed, forcing Underwood into obvious passing situations.
Still, Michigan isn't just running the ball. It is running toward the cover.
Why the under 45.5 is also in play
The way these offenses operate, combined with some Week 1 trends, points toward a lower-scoring game. Mateer makes Oklahoma's passing game a legitimate threat, but the run game remains a work in progress.
The Sooners managed just 103 rushing yards on 32 carries in Week 1, and transfer running back Jaydn Ott didn't see his first snap until the fourth quarter after missing fall camp with a shoulder injury. If Oklahoma remains one-dimensional, stalled drives and longer third downs become more likely.
A lack of discipline is also a factor in this one. Oklahoma had six penalties for 35 yards, while Michigan committed eight for 65. Against tougher competition, those mistakes can take points off the board. With Michigan likely controlling tempo and both teams prone to miscues, the under has value.
Betting prediction: Michigan +4.5
Michigan's ground game and improved offensive balance give the Wolverines a clearer path to keeping this game close. Oklahoma's offensive line, rushing inconsistency and turnover concerns make it difficult to trust the Sooners to pull away. The under remains in play, but Michigan +4.5 is the higher-confidence edge.