The 2025 college football season kicks off with one of the biggest nonconference matchups of the year as LSU travels to Death Valley to face Clemson.
With potential early College Football Playoff implications and Heisman considerations, Clemson opens as a 4.5-point favorite at home, leaning on continuity and experience, while LSU brings elite talent and one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country.
With both offenses built to move the ball and plenty of unknowns on defense, this matchup sets up to be one of the most compelling Week 1 showdowns.
LSU Tigers vs. Clemson Tigers
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Opening Line: Clemson -4.5, O/U 57.5
Money line: LSU (+150), Clemson (-175)
Over/Under: 57.5 (O -105, U -115)
How Clemson (-4.5) can cover
Clemson has the advantage of continuity, and that matters early in the season. Quarterback Cade Klubnik is coming off a breakout year with 43 total touchdowns, has four returning starting offensive linemen and his top three receivers (Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr., and T.J. Moore) are also back. That chemistry cannot be overstated, especially when facing an LSU defense that ranked 75th against the pass last year and struggled to limit explosive plays.
The Tigers also benefit from a coaching upgrade on defense with Tom Allen taking over as coordinator after his time at Penn State. Allen brings a more aggressive approach that fits a front loaded with NFL-caliber talent, led by defensive end T.J. Parker, who recorded the third-most sacks in the ACC last season. Against an LSU offense replacing both starting tackles, this matchup in the trenches leans in Clemson's favor.
Death Valley is also one of the toughest environments in college football, and Clemson has gone 34-2 at home since 2018.
Why LSU (+4.5) has value
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier gives LSU one of the most dynamic passing attacks after throwing for over 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns last season. He returns as a Heisman contender and has an upgraded group of receivers. Kentucky transfer Barion Brown brings elite speed, Oklahoma transfer Nic Anderson provides size and versatility, and Aaron Anderson is back as the team's most reliable option after leading LSU in catches a year ago.
LSU faces a Clemson secondary that ranked 66th against the pass in 2024, having faced only two teams that finished inside the top 25 in passing yards. With Nussmeier's arm talent and improved options, LSU can attack vertically and create mismatches.
Defensively, LSU has concerns but enough athleticism to potentially limit Klubnik's explosiveness. Clemson lacked efficiency in creating chunk plays last season, ranking 80th in yards per successful dropback and 79th in yards per completion. Klubnik's average of 7.4 yards per attempt tied him for 51st nationally, and until he shows growth in that area, his ability to consistently generate big plays remains in question.
Clemson has also underperformed against the spread, going 10-12 as a favorite with Klubnik, suggesting a tendency to play closer games than expected.
Betting prediction: LSU +4.5 
There are questions, but this line gives room for volatility. Clemson has continuity, but LSU arguably has the higher ceiling if the new players click early. Nussmeier's accuracy and explosive playmakers give LSU the ability to score quickly, and with Clemson still adjusting under a new defensive coordinator, the Tigers from Baton Rouge have enough offensive options to keep this game within the number.
I do not hate a live LSU play if the team settles in after the first quarter. Over 57.5 feels like the right side, given the passing volume and shaky secondaries, and with the volatility of either team hitting explosive plays and forcing tempo, the over could work. The hesitation comes from LSU's offensive line chemistry and Clemson's lingering lack of deep-play explosiveness in 2024.
Grabbing the points with LSU has more conviction because Nussmeier's elite arm talent and upgraded receiving corps give the Tigers the explosive upside to keep pace against a Clemson secondary still proving itself.