There's something quietly chaotic brewing in the Mountain West this season. Just beneath the surface of Boise State's dominance lies a shifting cast of challengers, rebuilders and rising programs trying to close the gap.
The Broncos enter 2025 with short odds and a loaded roster, chasing not just another conference title, but back-to-back playoff appearances. Behind them, San Jose State lurks with a dream schedule and a veteran core, while Hawaii has the look of a breakthrough team with a quarterback ready to light up the scoreboards.
And then there's UNLV, caught between sky-high expectations and a total roster reset under new coach Dan Mullen. Don't forget Air Force, either, a perennial thorn that quietly ended last year on a four-game win streak and returns to its old-school identity with experience in the trenches.
A couple of timely bounces or a late-season collapse could decide who sneaks into December's title game.
Bets to make on the Mountain West
Boise State to win Mountain West (-160) 
Don't let the -160 price scare you off from considering this a strong value, even at shorter odds than last year's -130. The Broncos return quarterback Maddux Madsen along with a top-tier offensive line and a defense that was fourth in yards per play allowed in conference games. They also avoid tricky road spots against top contenders, with UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State all coming to Boise.
Their only real Mountain West road tests are Air Force and Utah State, both rebuilding. This is the most complete and stable team in the conference with a 23-3 MWC record since 2022. While Ashton Jeanty's departure to the NFL leaves a major hole, Boise State has depth in the backfield with Sire Gaines and Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod ready to step in.
At +175 to make the playoff, Boise is worth a play. After making their CFP debut in 2024, the path is clear again. If they run the table or finish 12-1 with a quality loss to Notre Dame they're likely the top Group of 5 bid again.
San Jose State OVER 7.5 wins (-115)
This is one of my favorite sleeper wagers on the Mountain West board. The Spartans return nine starters from last year's 7-win team and avoid both Boise State and UNLV in the regular season, which is a massive scheduling edge. Quarterback Walker Eget is back to lead an offense that was really picking up steam in the second half of the season, finishing fifth in passing yards per game.
While the defense loses some key pieces in the secondary, the linebacker duo of Jordan Pollard and Taniela Latu gives this unit a reliable spine. Head coach Ken Niumatalolo is no stranger to winning; he's got the pedigree, and now he has the path. If the Spartans improve the run game, they just might sneak into the title game. Ace up the sleeve vibes.
Hawaii OVER 6.5 wins (-135)
Head coach Timmy Chang is one of the program's all-time greats and a record-setting passer from the Run-and-Shoot era. He's finally working with a roster built in his image starting with redshirt freshman quarterback Micah Alejado, who very well could be the breakout star of the Mountain West. In his first start, he threw for 469 yards and five touchdowns against New Mexico, and now steps into a full-time role with legit targets.
The defense returns seven starters and should take another step under coordinator Dennis Thurman. Most importantly, the schedule breaks favorably. No Boise State, and all seven home games are winnable. If the offensive line holds up, this team is going bowling and possibly flirting with eight wins.
This bet is fading early-season hype without fully disrespecting the roster. Dan Mullen was one of the best coaching hires of the offseason, but this is a full reset with only two starters returning, and the Rebels replacing all five starters on the offensive line. Even with solid portal additions, continuity matters. Quarterback is unsettled between Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea and Michigan's Alex Orji, and while Jai'Den Thomas is a proven back, he won't have the same lanes as last year behind a rebuilt front.
Defensively, it's the same story: new faces across all three levels. UNLV goes to Boise State and Colorado State, and faces San Diego State and Fresno State late when attrition sets in. The pieces are exciting, but 9-3 feels optimistic. Give me 8-4 or 7-5 and the under.
Air Force OVER 5.5 wins (-200)
I was hesitant to include this but this is juiced for a reason. HC Troy Calhoun rarely has back-to-back losing seasons, and last year's 5-7 squad still ended with a four-game win streak. The offense returns key pieces, including fullback Dylan Carson and three starters up front, crucial in this system.
Quarterback play is a question, but even with uncertainty there, the floor is high. They avoid Boise and get winnable road games at New Mexico and Wyoming. I wouldn't force the -200, but Air Force is a team I'd circle for different looks, either small moneyline shots as an underdog and selective favorite opportunities when the spread is manageable.