Betting on golf is a beautiful, maddening, exhilarating puzzle -- kind of like standing over a 3-footer to save par with your buddies watching. There are tons of ways to bet on a tournament, but if you're randomly firing outright winners and hoping for the best, you're likely going to find yourself in a financial bunker.
Instead, here's a step-by-step guide on how to structure your betting card like a pro, balancing risk and reward to make sure you're in the hunt come Sunday.
When betting on golf, three key factors often come into play: course fit, current form and course history.
Course fit is all about how a golfer's skill set aligns with the layout -- whether it's a bomber's paradise, a precision-heavy track or a putting contest.
Current form looks at recent results, momentum and confidence -- because a player striping it tee-to-green last week is more appealing than one searching for his swing.
Course history is the comfort factor -- some players see certain courses better, whether it's the type of grass or memories of past success. The sweet spot is when all three align. But in betting, you're looking for the best value, and sometimes weighing one over the others is where you find the edge.
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Bets to make on the U.S. Open | How to bet Scottie Scheffler
Understand your betting options
Golf betting is more than just picking a winner. There are plenty of ways to get action -- some safer than others -- and if you structure your bets correctly, you can still cash even if your outright pick implodes. Here's a quick rundown of the most popular wagers:
Outright winner
This is the classic "Who's holding the trophy on Sunday?" bet. Because golf fields are massive, outright odds are juicy -- but that also means they're tough to hit. A 30-1 ticket is fun, but only if you're betting outright winners. You'll have a lot of weekends when your wallet looks like the rough at a U.S. Open.
Top-5, top-10 and top-20 finishes
Think of these as more conservative wagers, with top-20 bets being the higher probability plays. Instead of needing a golfer to win, they just have to finish inside a certain range. A top-20 bet at +120 might not sound thrilling, but cashing these consistently will keep your bankroll alive while you're sprinkling on outright tickets.
A golfer at 30-1 to win the tournament has a 3.2% implied probability of winning. Compare that to a top-20 bet at +200 (33% implied probability) -- huge difference, right? That's why I bet less on longer odds and more on higher-probability plays.
First-round leader
This is where things get fun. Instead of sweating a full four-day tournament, you just need your golfer to lead after 18 holes. Since first-round odds are often 20-1 or longer, I bet these in fractions of a unit (more on that later). Morning tee times, calm conditions and aggressive scorers are key factors in first-round leader betting. If you like a player to potentially win a tournament, then you certainly want to risk something on him to come out strong in the opening round. If it hits, you're potentially freerolling the rest of your card.
Head-to-head matchups
If betting outright winners is like aiming for the pin, matchup bets are like a layup to the middle of the green. You're just picking one golfer to beat another, either for a single round or the full tournament. A much more controlled way to bet. I prefer betting a full tournament, as it offers the bigger-picture outcome over the course of four days as opposed to higher volatility with just a single round. There are also three-ball matchups. Think head-to-head but with three players. Longer odds, but adding a third brings more risk.
Props and majors-only markets
Majors unlock a buffet of fun bets. Some you see on a weekly basis, while others you see only for the biggest tournaments of the year:
Top American, top European, etc.: Picking the best finisher from a specific region.
Will there be a hole-in-one?: Self-explanatory. Always fun, always tempting.
Lowest round, highest round: Will someone go full Cam Smith at St. Andrews (-8)? Or will someone post an 82 in windy conditions?
Make the cut parlays: A combination of players to make the cut line.
Structuring your betting card and managing your bet size
Throwing darts at the board and hoping for a bull's-eye isn't a strategy -- it's a good way to run out of funds before the weekend. And if you're putting the same amount on everything, stop right now -- that's the equivalent of using a putter from the fairway.
Instead, I like to build my card around two or three players and mix in different bet types to balance risk and reward. Since golf odds vary wildly, bet sizing needs to be proportional to the risk.
This works because top-20s provide consistency, cashing more often and keeping your bankroll steady. Top-10 and top-5 wagers could be .5 units, while outright winners could range from .2 to .25, since they are harder to hit. First-round leaders are even higher risk but high reward, giving you a shot not only at a big win but also at lower bet sizes. Spreading bets across different markets keeps you in play all tournament. Even if your outright pick stumbles, your top-20 bet could still cash. The longer the odds, the smaller your bet size, since it is a much lower implied probability to hit. Betting too large on long shots can wipe you out quickly if you go on a losing streak.
If you're betting multiple players (five or more) in an event, your total stake needs to be balanced so you don't go all-in on a single golfer. The more players you add, the more you need to adjust individual bet sizes to keep total exposure in check.
PGA Tour's biggest tournaments: The four majors and golf's 'fifth major'
Like anything else, betting on golf is about staying disciplined and using wagering as a way to enhance your viewing experience. Golf betting can be a grind. If you're expecting to hit an outright winner every week, you're in for a rude awakening. But by structuring your bets wisely, managing risk and spreading exposure across different markets, you can stay profitable and keep the sweat alive all weekend.
U.S. Open: June 12-15, Oakmont (Pa.) Country Club
The Open Championship: July 17-20, Royal Portrush (Northern Ireland)
PGA Championship: Scottie Scheffler (-11)
Masters Tournament: Rory McIlroy (-11, won in playoff)
The Players Championship: Rory McIlroy (-12, won in playoff)
With one of the strongest fields, a massive purse and TPC Sawgrass setting the stage, it's as close to a major as it gets. It might not have the official label, but the drama, history and that island green at 17 make it one of the best tournaments of the year.
Bets to make on the 2025 U.S. Open
Odds are accurate as of publication. For latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The PGA Tour heads to Oakmont Golf Club for golf's third major, the U.S. Open. I expect brutality in all the best ways: thick and high rough, narrow fairways, lightning greens and a winning score just below par. It will be a true test of elite play and elite confidence.
Oakmont is for golfers who thrive in adversity. Think of it like a chess match in a hurricane. To contend at Oakmont you need laser-sharp accuracy off the tee, elite mid-long iron approach play and exceptional pace control on ultra‑fast, sloped greens.
Par is a good score here. If someone goes -4 in a round, they're flirting with legendary. Whether betting or building a fantasy lineup, you want someone comfortable grinding out 70s and not pressing for birdies.
Let's break down golf's third major of the season.
My favorite bets
Collin Morikawa Top 20 (+110)
If you're building a card around precision, discipline and ceiling from ball-striking, Morikawa is your guy. Oakmont won't punish his lack of distance, and his strokes gained on hard courses (fifth) shows he embraces the grind. He ranks fifth in approach and fourth in accuracy, which is textbook Oakmont metrics.
Although his 2025 results haven't popped, he does have quiet consistency with eight top-20 finishes in 11 starts. Morikawa has always been steady under pressure. Internally, he may feel the weight of expectations, but outwardly his game tends to look clean when conditions get tough. If the short game is neutral, he'll be right there late Sunday.
Corey Conners Top 20 (+150)
Despite a T27 last week in Canada, Conners remains one of the best value plays in the field. You're getting a top-10 ball-striker who is accurate, in form and built for Oakmont's discipline-over-distance setup.
He ranks 11th in driving accuracy and has gained tee to green in all but one start this year. The short game is his biggest liability, but his ball-striking profile is exactly what holds up when others spiral. Conners doesn't dazzle with highlight reel kinds of shots, but he does play steady. At a course like Oakmont, that's often enough.
Keegan Bradley Top 20 (+260)
Bradley is one of the hottest tee-to-green players in the field (second over the last 32 rounds). His 2022 U.S. Open (solo seventh) and current form (back-to-back top-10 finishes in the PGA Championship and the Memorial) suggest he has the tools if he holds serve on the greens.
Captain Keegan has winning-level ball-striking, underrated touch around the greens and way longer odds than his form deserves. He belongs on your card with a sprinkle on the outright at 75-1 as a worthy long shot lotto ticket.
How to bet Scottie Scheffler
Let's be real. His odds are not ideal: -150 for a top 5 and +275 to win. But it's warranted. Scheffler's strengths are that he is literally elite in everything and his weakness is... well, he has none.
No one else is in Scheffler's form. The -150 price is expensive, but justified, because Scheffler is chalk that hits.
If you can afford the price, then for a stable, reliable leg to round out your betting card, Scheffler top 5 is it. He has finished inside the top five in six of his last eight starts and continues to lead the field in nearly every strokes-gained metric, including tee-to-green and approach. This is a bet rooted in consistency and form, not speculation.
If you're looking to stretch your dollar, there are other ways to diversify, such as playing Scheffler first-round leader 12-1, or hoping for a better top-5/outright price live. Oakmont is a grind-it-out, survive-and-advance kind of setup, which could open the door for a live betting strategy. Firing on lowest second-round score (after Round 1 is completed) could be the go-to move, as well. Scheffler is first in Round 2 scoring average.
Unless you're anchoring a parlay or building around safety from the jump, waiting live might be the sharper move, especially when other top 20 plays offer more value up front.
And if we miss out because he plays flawless golf from the start? Then just sit back and enjoy the fact that we're witnessing greatness.
Why I'm staying off Jon Rahm
At first glance, I was ready to hammer top 10 (+130) and possibly outright (12-1) after Rahm's top-15 finishes in the Masters and PGA Championship, but I'm staying off instead. He lost strokes on approach all four rounds at Augusta, which is concerning for someone with his ball-striking pedigree, especially heading into a course like Oakmont where approach play is everything.
Yes, he bounced back at the PGA Championship, but that's just one spike amid a stretch of LIV top-10s that don't carry the same weight. And now we're asked to pay +130 for a top-10? Pass. There's been a tension to Rahm's game lately at Tour events that makes me hesitate. At a venue like Oakmont, I'm looking for poise, not pressure waiting to explode.