The Las Vegas Aces entered last season with a target on their backs and lofty expectations. As back-to-back WNBA champions and favorites to three-peat, the Aces appeared to be nearly untouchable. But after dominating the 2023 season with just six losses in 40 games, Las Vegas matched that loss total in their first 12 games of the 2024 campaign.
They eventually found their rhythm, winning 21 of their final 28 games, but the damage had been done. Their bid for a third straight title ended in the second round of the playoffs, where they fell to the eventual champion New York Liberty.
Based on last season's results, the Aces are not championship favorites this season. Their win-total over-under is set at 29.5 wins, meaning they'd have to win at least 68% of their games to go over. The Aces also have longer odds to win the championship at +350, behind the Liberty (+230) and tied with the Fever (+350).
These results and odds significantly underestimate the Aces likely outcome this season, however, as this Aces team has the upside to be as good as their 2023 championship squad -- and perhaps even better -- for three distinct reasons.
A'ja Wilson is the best player on the planet and is in her prime
Wilson is coming off a 2024 season where she posted the highest scoring average in WNBA history (26.9 PPG), grabbed more rebounds than anyone ever before (446 total rebounds, 11.9 RPG), led the league with 2.6 BPG and also finished fifth with 1.8 SPG.
She won her third MVP in the last five seasons and was the runner-up for the Defensive Player of the Year award she had won each of the previous two seasons. Wilson is better now than she was in either of the Aces' two championship seasons, and as long as they have the most dominant player in the league the Aces have the foundation of a championship team.
But they had Wilson playing at that level last season and came up short. Which brings up to the second reason they are in for a big bounce-back this season.
Chelsea Gray is fully healthy and ready for a big season
Gray entered the 2024 season with a lower leg injury that kept her out of the first 11 games and limited her effectiveness for the rest of the season. But now that she is healthy, it makes the team better and shows up in the team's plus-minus profiles. In 2022, the Aces had an average scoring differential of +6.3 PPG, but when Gray was on the court, they outscored their opponents by +13.4 points per 100 possessions. In 2023, Aces' scoring differential was +12.5 PPG, but Gray's on-court plus-minus was +16.5 points per 100 possessions. Even last season with Gray limited, she led the Aces with a +11.3 PP100 +/- while the team scoring differential was only +5.5 PPG.
Gray's injury was the biggest difference between the 2023 championship Aces and the struggles of the 2024 version. So, her health is fundamental to the squad. And this offseason, she proved herself healthy again.
With Gray healthy and Wilson transcendent, this season's Aces would be poised to be at least as good as they were in 2023.
Adding Jewell Loyd to replace Kelsey Plum
They traded three-time All Star and 2022 All-WNBA First Team guard Kelsey Plum for six-time All Star and three-time All-WNBA guard Jewell Loyd. Plum is an amazing player, but Loyd is at least as talented with a more decorated career to date.
Plum had years of experience with the Aces' core, which is a positive that is hard to duplicate, but Loyd has a jump-start on the typical chemistry questions when key players change teams. Loyd has played on Olympics teams with each of her three All-Star Aces teammates -- Wilson, Gray and Jackie Young -- winning gold medals with each. She and Wilson have a well-publicized close friendship, and they have great on-court chemistry together.
The 2022 Aces won 72.2% of their games and the championship. The 2023 Aces won 85.0% of their games and the championship. Fast-forward to this season, and the 2025 Aces are led by the most dominant player in the league, have their floor-general leader back and healthy, and just might have upgraded the talent in their starting lineup.
They are excellent value to win more than 29.5 of their 44 games, and at +350 they are strong value to win the WNBA championship.