Seven months ago, the New York Liberty beat the Minnesota Lynx 67-62 in the deciding Game 5 of the 2024 WNBA Finals. It prompted celebration in the Big Apple for New York's first league title -- and lamentation in Minnesota. Angry about a late foul called in regulation, Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve blasted the officiating, saying, "This s--- was stolen from us."
Ready for the Liberty and Lynx to try and run it back? They are the front-runners to reach the 2025 WNBA Finals, according to ESPN's panel of experts, who are feeling Minnesota as the preseason favorite. But there are big challengers, too, including the two-time champion Las Vegas Aces and the team that seems to have the most preseason buzz, the Indiana Fever.
The WNBA's 29th season begins with three games Friday, headed by No. 1 draft pick Paige Bueckers' debut for the Dallas Wings, who host Minnesota. In Saturday's doubleheader on ABC, we will get a look at the defending champion Liberty against the Aces (1 p.m. ET), followed by last season's rookie stars Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese facing off as Indiana hosts the Chicago Sky (3 p.m. ET).
ESPN's Kendra Andrews, Katie Barnes, Kevin Pelton, Alexa Philippou and Michael Voepel make their predictions for which teams could contend for the title and which players could win awards.
Jump to: Playoff and award predictions
Will the Liberty repeat?
Michael Voepel: Maintaining that level of championship hunger is so difficult in professional sports because the challengers are so determined to stop you. The Aces were able to do it in 2023 after winning it in 2022, but it might prove difficult for the Liberty to pull it off.
Kevin Pelton: The Liberty are deserving favorites to win another title. Perimeter stopper Betnijah Laney-Hamilton will miss the entire season now that she has been placed on the suspended list, but the addition of Natasha Cloud helps fill that void, and the return of Marine Johannes should strengthen the Liberty bench. I'd put them atop the tier of three teams with the best chance to win the championship, ahead of Las Vegas and Minnesota.
Alexa Philippou: History suggests a squad other than New York will hoist the crown. There's a reason that only one team -- the Aces in 2022 and 2023 -- has repeated in the past two decades. It's incredibly difficult, and that's the case now more than ever with so many teams stockpiling talent and in win-now mode.
I still see the Liberty in the same tier of teams Pelton outlined, along with Indiana. Perhaps it will prove advantageous that they don't have the exact cast of characters as last season, though I wonder whether the losses of Laney-Hamilton and Kayla Thornton (expansion draft) will rear their head. The Liberty are also thin at the wing, though Rebekah Gardner, Kennedy Burke and Leonie Fiebich could make up for that.
If not New York, which team is your pick to win the 2025 title?
Philippou: The Lynx were one foul call away from winning it all last season, and there is plenty of reason to believe they can return to that stage and emerge as champions this time. They have a huge advantage in returning a league-high 85.4% of their scoring production. They could be even deeper thanks to their retooled bench, especially if young players such as Diamond Miller and Alissa Pili continue to develop. The Aces and Liberty have been the first to say how losing fueled and informed their eventual championship runs; last year's heartbreak could be what the Lynx needed to have it all come together in 2025.
Voepel: Building on Alexa's point, there has been a pattern over the past six years of teams winning the title the season after a big disappointment. In 2019, the Mystics won after being swept by the Storm in the 2018 Finals. In 2022, the Aces won after falling at home in Game 5 of the 2021 semifinals to the Mercury. And last season, the Liberty got the title after losing in the 2023 Finals to the Aces.
We could see that play out with the Lynx this season, but they're not the only team that would fit this trend. The Aces are also still stewing about last year, when they won only one of seven games against the Liberty between the regular season and playoffs. Plus, Jewell Loyd is hungry to prove herself with a new team.
As for Indiana, the Fever might be a year away. That would fit another pattern of teams (Seattle in 2004 and 2018) winning titles in the third season of consecutive No. 1 draft picks playing together.
With all the roster changes, what's the one thing you are most looking forward to seeing this season?
Pelton: I can't wait to see how Loyd fits in Las Vegas. The sign-and-trade deal that sent Kelsey Plum to the Sparks with Loyd as her replacement is by far the biggest change we've seen for the Aces since Becky Hammon arrived as coach and immediately led them to back-to-back WNBA titles.
Loyd has played off an MVP post player and an elite playmaking point guard before, winning championships with teammates Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart in 2018 and 2020 for the Storm. Provided Loyd buys into that type of role after taking a leading one in Seattle the past two years -- and sees her 3-point percentage bounce back after a seasonlong slump -- Vegas shouldn't miss a beat.
Katie Barnes: I'm looking at the other side of the trade Pelton highlighted.
Plum brings veteran and championship experience to a Sparks squad with a young core. And Plum is fiercely competitive and lives for opportunities to prove herself. While this is the first franchise she will play for that didn't draft her, there are familiar faces who will smooth the transition, with former Aces teammate Dearica Hamby on the roster and her former college coach Mike Neighbors on the staff.
We should see the ball in Plum's hands more in Los Angeles. The Sparks will look to her to facilitate more than she was asked to do in Vegas, and more will be demanded of her as a leader. If she meets the challenge, her impact will be considerable.
Philippou: All the player movement into and out of Phoenix has intrigued me. It will be bizarre to see Brittney Griner playing in Atlanta and not competing in front of the X-Factor, and to watch Alyssa Thomas playing for the Mercury and not the Connecticut Sun.
Will Phoenix's roster-building strategy work? The Mercury have one of the best trios in the league with Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper, but the team's depth is a question. And in Atlanta, it should be fun to see how new coach Karl Smesko brings Griner and Brionna Jones together and how he tweaks his system, typically predicated on 3-point shooting, to account for those interior forces.
Kendra Andrews: I'm also zeroing in on the Mercury, who are entering a completely new era -- not only without Griner, but also without Diana Taurasi. It's easier said than done to start over, no matter how talented the free agents you landed are.
The organization has spoken highly about how well Sabally, Thomas and Copper will play next to each other, but how much time will it take to adjust? I'm curious if the Mercury will have to rely heavily on their big trio, because, as Alexa said, Phoenix lacks depth and experience otherwise.
Voepel: No WNBA team has had a more dramatic turnaround in terms of fan interest and excitement than Indiana the past two years, drafting Aliyah Boston and Clark as consecutive No. 1 picks. Adding the ageless DeWanna Bonner, Natasha Howard and Sophie Cunningham into the mix while returning Kelsey Mitchell, who went through all the franchise's lowest moments before now getting to enjoy some of its best, makes for a team that appears to be the most talented the Fever have had in a decade. It should be a blast to watch.
What was the biggest surprise from Thursday's final rosters?
Andrews: I'm surprised that none of Golden State's three draftees are on the final roster, seemingly wasting three picks.
The Valkyries surprised fans when they waived 17th overall pick Shyanne Sellers, then did it again with 29th overall pick Kaitlyn Chen. Both players were quick fan favorites after throwing first pitches at San Francisco Giants games and driving jersey sales, with Chen receiving a standing ovation after her first bucket in the Valkyries' preseason game against Los Angeles.
Even more confusing is fifth overall pick Juste Jocyte's decision to remain in Europe.
Voepel: Even with a 13th team in Golden State adding more roster spots, WNBA fans are still agonizing over cuts. It's hard to watch players not get a chance in what is supposed to be their rookie season, but also to see former first-round picks such as Diamond DeShields (2018) and Haley Jones, Grace Berger and Laeticia Amihere (Nos. 6-7-8 in 2023) get cut. We will see if any of them get a call to play this season, especially if teams need injury replacements.
Who is your preseason pick to win MVP?
Pelton: As terrific as Napheesa Collier was last season, there is a reason A'ja Wilson won MVP unanimously. She put together a historic campaign to win the award for the third time in the past five seasons. There's no reason to expect much drop-off this year as she pursues becoming the first player in WNBA history to reach four MVP trophies.
Barnes: Whether it's fair or not, it's possible that Wilson could be a victim of her own historic success this season. She has raised the bar for greatness, and as such, it's a tougher mountain to climb to win MVP again. My pick is Collier, who is coming off championship disappointment in the WNBA as well as a disappointing exit from the Unrivaled playoffs. She's on a mission, and I anticipate she will have a special season.
Andrews: I agree that Collier is entering the season with an extra chip on her shoulder and fire lit under her. I had a front-row seat to her dominance at Unrivaled, where she won the one-on-one competition and MVP award, and the zone she was in isn't fading anytime soon. In Miami, she spoke about how losing in the WNBA Finals was still bugging her. Expect that motivation to carry over and for her to continue the incredible tear she has been on.
Voepel: Since we're talking about chips on shoulders, Wilson has one, too -- from last season, when she and Hammon thought she deserved Defensive Player of the Year to go along with MVP. Seeing the league's general managers pick Collier as the MVP favorite this year will only fuel Wilson's fire, and it's a powerful fire.
PRESEASON PREDICTIONS
Who is your pick for MVP?
Kendra Andrews: Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx
Katie Barnes: Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx
Kevin Pelton: A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces
Alexa Philippou: Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx
Michael Voepel: A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces
Who is your pick for Rookie of the Year?
Andrews: Paige Bueckers, Dallas Wings
Barnes: Paige Bueckers, Dallas Wings
Pelton: Paige Bueckers, Dallas Wings
Philippou: Paige Bueckers, Dallas Wings
Voepel: Paige Bueckers, Dallas Wings
Paige Bueckers drops 10 points in her preseason WNBA debut with the Dallas Wings.
Who is your pick for Defensive Player of the Year?
Andrews: A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces
Barnes: A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces
Pelton: A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces
Philippou: Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty
Voepel: A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces
Who is your pick for Most Improved Player?
Andrews: Kamilla Cardoso, Chicago Sky
Barnes: Kamilla Cardoso, Chicago Sky
Pelton: Emily Engstler, Washington Mystics
Philippou: Kamilla Cardoso, Chicago Sky
Voepel: Kate Martin, Golden State Valkyries
Which five players will make the All-WNBA first team?
Andrews: Caitlin Clark, Napheesa Collier, Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, A'ja Wilson
Barnes: Caitlin Clark, Napheesa Collier, Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, A'ja Wilson
Pelton: Caitlin Clark, Napheesa Collier, Satou Sabally, Breanna Stewart, A'ja Wilson
Philippou: Caitlin Clark, Napheesa Collier, Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, A'ja Wilson
Voepel: Caitlin Clark, Napheesa Collier, Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, A'ja Wilson
Which eight teams will make the playoffs?
Andrews: Atlanta, Dallas, Indiana, Las Vegas, Minnesota, New York, Phoenix, Seattle
Barnes: Chicago, Dallas, Indiana, Las Vegas, Minnesota, New York, Phoenix, Seattle
Pelton: Atlanta, Dallas, Indiana, Las Vegas, Minnesota, New York, Phoenix, Seattle
Philippou: Atlanta, Chicago, Indiana, Las Vegas, Minnesota, New York, Phoenix, Seattle
Voepel: Atlanta, Dallas, Indiana, Las Vegas, Minnesota, New York, Phoenix, Seattle
Which four teams will reach the WNBA semifinals?
Andrews: Indiana, Las Vegas, Minnesota, New York
Barnes: Indiana, Las Vegas, Minnesota, New York
Pelton: Indiana, Las Vegas, Minnesota, New York
Philippou: Indiana, Las Vegas, Minnesota, New York
Voepel: Indiana, Las Vegas, Minnesota, New York
Which teams will meet in the WNBA Finals?
Andrews: Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty
Barnes: Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty
Pelton: Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty
Philippou: Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty
Voepel: Minnesota Lynx and Las Vegas Aces
Which team will win the 2025 WNBA title?
Andrews: Minnesota Lynx
Barnes: Minnesota Lynx
Pelton: New York Liberty
Philippou: Minnesota Lynx
Voepel: Minnesota Lynx