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          Betting tips for 'Thursday Night Football': Broncos at Chargers

          Justin Herbert's stretch of 357 pass attempts without an interception came to an end last week. AP Photo/Eric Thayer
          • ESPN
          Dec 19, 2024, 09:38 AM ET

          Week 16 of the NFL season gets going with a key AFC West clash between the Denver Broncos (9-5) and Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) on "Thursday Night Football."

          The division rivals head into the week holding the final two spots in the AFC playoff race. The Broncos are -1200 to make the postseason, while the Chargers sit at -1000.

          Denver will be looking for its fifth straight win after knocking off the Indianapolis Colts 31-13 last Sunday. Los Angeles is coming off its second straight loss, a 40-17 drubbing at home vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Chargers won the first meeting, 23-16, in Denver in Week 6.

          Action from SoFi Stadium gets underway at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

          Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

          Game lines

          Spread: Chargers -3 (Opened Chargers -3)
          Moneyline: Chargers -150, Broncos +130
          Over/Under: 42.5 (Opened 42.5)

          First-half spread: Chargers -0.5 (-115), Broncos +0.5 (-105)
          Broncos total points: 19.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
          Chargers total points: 21.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

          Matchup predictor (according to ESPN Analytics): Chargers 57.7% chance to win

          The props

          Passing

          Justin Herbert total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
          Herbert total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +110/Under -145)
          Bo Nix total passing yards: 224.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
          Nix total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +145/Under -190)

          Rushing

          Gus Edwards total rushing yards: 34.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
          Nix total rushing yards: 19.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
          Kimani Vidal total rushing yards: 29.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

          Receiving

          Ladd McConkey total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
          Courtland Sutton total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
          Quentin Johnston total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
          Stone Smartt total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
          Devaughn Vele total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -130/Under +100)

          Tyler Fulghum's pick

          UNDER 42.5 total points (-115)

          While I lean to the Chargers' side in a bounce-back, I really love attacking the total and going under. It's the second meeting between these two teams this year. In the first one we saw just 39 points, so something similar to that will get us an under yet again. Justin Herbert may be a bit banged up, and even if Patrick Surtain is missing from the Broncos defense, I still think we're gonna see limited play volume and limited explosiveness from both offenses is in this game.

          Betting trends

          Courtesy ESPN Research

          • The Broncos have the best ATS record in the NFL at 11-3. They are the first team to start 11-3 ATS since the 2022 Cincinnati Bengals. The Chargers (10-4 ATS) are tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers with the second-best mark.

          • The Broncos have covered five straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL and their longest single-season cover streak since 2012 (5). Another cover would be their longest ATS winning streak since 2009 (6).

          • The Broncos are 6-1 ATS on the road this season.

          • The Chargers are 8-2 ATS as favorites this season and 4-1 ATS as home favorites.

          • The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in division games this season.

          • Overs are 4-0 in the Chargers last four home games.

          • First-half overs are 11-3 in Broncos games.

          • The Broncos' over/under for wins to open the season was 5.5. They hit the over with a win in Week 11. The Chargers (8.5) can clinch their over with a win Thursday.

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