In one of the biggest and most prestigious rivalries in all of sports, the No. 22 Army Black Knights and Navy Midshipmen will meet in their annual matchup for the 125th time on Saturday to conclude the college football regular season.
Army won the American Athletic Conference with a win last week over Tulane, improving to 11-1 (8-0 AAC). It's lone loss came to Notre Dame, a 49-14 drubbing in late November. Navy (8-3, 6-2 AAC) started 6-0 but dropped three of its last five games, including a 51-14 loss to Notre Dame at the end of October that knocked the Midshipmen out of the rankings.
Last season's Army-Navy matchup featured a wild finish, particularly for nervous bettors. Army closed as a 2.5-point favorite and the total closed at 28.5 (at ESPN BET). A goal-line stand by Army with three seconds left and leading 17-9 preserved the cover and the under, even with an intentional safety that made it a 17-11 final.
Saturday's meeting for the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy kicks off at 3 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+) from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The lines
Spread: Army -6.5
Moneyline: Army -270, Navy +220
Over/under: 39.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
First-half spread: Army -3.5 (-105), Navy +3.5 (-115)
First-half moneyline: Army -220, Navy +170
First-half total points: 19.5 (Over -125/Under +102)
Matchup predictor (by ESPN analytics): Army 65.9% chance to win
Army coach Jeff Monken explains why he is proud of his team and discusses what it took to win the American Athletic Conference in the Black Knights' first year in the league.
Maldonado's pick: Army -6.5
Army has been dominant this season, marching to an impressive 11-1 record behind one of the nation's most punishing rushing attacks. Opponents haven't just struggled to stop the Black Knights, they've been steamrolled, losing by an average 16 points.
Army's bread and butter is the run game -- there's no surprise there. The Black Knights have 44 rushing touchdowns this season, the second most in the nation. At the heart of it all is quarterback Bryson Daily, who is tied with Heisman-contending running back Ashton Jeanty for the most rushing touchdowns in the FBS with 29. Daily's size (6-foot, 221 pounds), vision and ability to turn contact into extra yards make him a nightmare for defenses. Think linebacker in quarterback form.
What really sets Daily apart from his counterparts is his knack for explosive plays. He leads the nation in designed runs of 20+ yards, slashing through defenses with precision and power. His ability to see gaps that don't even seem to exist makes him one of the most dynamic playmakers in college football.
For Navy, the story is a defensive unit that has struggled to plug the gaps. Ranked 83rd in rushing yards allowed and 100th in rushing success rate, the Midshipmen have been gashed repeatedly by teams with strong ground games. Notre Dame ran up 265 rushing yards and Tulane added another 220, with those teams scoring a combined seven touchdowns in those two Navy losses. Against a physical Army attack, Navy's undersized defense faces a steep uphill battle.
Army's offense thrives in converting critical situations, ranking fourth in the nation in third-down success. With Daily's ability to grind out short-yardage gains, the Black Knights can control the tempo and wear down defenses. Navy quarterback Blake Horvath has shown flashes in the passing game, but he doesn't bring the same multifaceted dominance to the field that Daily does.
Army is built to exploit Navy's weaknesses. With Daily leading the charge, back the team with the size, strategy and star power to own the trenches. I'm laying the points and taking Army to win the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Army-Navy game has gone under the total in 17 of the last 18 meetings.
Eight of the last 10 Army-Navy games have been decided by one score.
Army has scored first in 10 of the last 11 meetings vs. Navy.
Army has won six of the last eight matchups between the service academies, including the last two, after Navy rattled off 14 straight victories from 2002-15.
Navy has a 62-55-7 overall edge in the series.
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