Eliminator Challenge has returned to normalcy over the past two weeks, with the biggest favorites actually winning. Favorites of at least five points are 10-0 over the past two weeks after going 12-13 in the first five weeks.
Only 8.2% of remaining entries were eliminated last week, however, over the whole season, 98.3% of the over 940,000 Eliminator Challenge entries have already been knocked out. Week 8 could continue to be a reprieve from the early-season carnage. Eight teams are favored by at least six points, the most in any week this season. Mike Clay's model gives six teams at least an 80% chance to win, and five of those teams have their easiest remaining game the rest of the season.
The Lions are the biggest favorites in Week 8, and they also have the best chance to win according to both Clay and ESPN Analytics. But they aren't the only strong choice. The Broncos, Chargers and Steelers all host bottom-tier teams. The two AFC favorites, the Chiefs and Ravens, are big road favorites against overmatched divisional foes. Even the Jets make sense in their biggest road favorite role since 1992.
But for the top pick in Week 8, we will stick with a tried and true formula -- fading the Carolina Panthers on the road against a competent team.
Click here to download Mike Clay's Eliminator Cheat Sheet, updated weekly. Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET.
1, Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are now 3-21 since the start of last season. Their only win this year came in their first game after switching to Andy Dalton. Since then, the Panthers have progressively been worse offensively while simultaneously taking on a number of injuries defensively. Despite the Panthers' ineptitude, fewer than 5% of early entries are going with the Broncos. Denver is only projected to have a 60% chance to win two more times the rest of the season, so there is also little reason to save them.
ESPN BET line: Broncos -9 (-450 money line)
ESPN Analytics: 67% chance to win
Mike Clay: 86% chance to win
Eliminator Challenge: 5% selected
2. Detroit Lions vs Tennessee Titans
The Lions are the biggest favorites according to the betting odds as well as both models from Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. In fact, the current point spread of 11 would be the largest point spread in any game this season. The Lions haven't been favored by at least 10.5 points since 1996, the longest drought of any team in the Super Bowl era. The only issue with Detroit is that it is currently projecting to be by far the most-selected team in Week 8. And with so many big favorites, pivoting to a less popular pick could be prudent, especially with a Week 11 home game against the Jaguars coming up soon.
ESPN BET line: Lions -11 (-700 money line)
ESPN Analytics: 79% chance to win
Mike Clay: 92% chance to win
Eliminator Challenge: 31% selected
3. Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Giants
The Steelers are the fourth-biggest favorites this week according to both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics, with both models liking the Steelers even more than the betting market. The Giants are 25th in EPA per play offensively despite facing one of the easier slates of defenses thus far. The loss of left tackle Andrew Thomas further crippled the Giants' offense last week, and a road game in Pittsburgh won't solve their issues. While Mike Tomlin has a bad record as a big home favorite, Daniel Jones has an equally bad record in prime-time games, going 1-14 outright in his career.
ESPN BET line: Steelers -6.5 (-290 money line)
ESPN Analytics: 69% chance to win
Mike Clay: 84% chance to win
Eliminator Challenge: 9% selected
Other Options
4. Los Angeles Chargers (vs New Orleans Saints)
5. New York Jets (at New England Patriots)
6. Kansas City Chiefs (at Las Vegas Raiders)
7. Baltimore Ravens (at Cleveland Browns)