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ESPN- Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.
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ESPN Analytics- Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on "ESPN Bet Live" and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.
There is just one more day of games until we have our matchup for Super Bowl LIX.
The Philadelphia Eagles host the upstart Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game, and the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will meet at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday.
If you're looking to bet on the games, Ben Solak and Seth Walder are here to offer their analysis and favorite plays.
Odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
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Commanders-Eagles | Bills-Chiefs
Commanders at Eagles (-6, 47.5)
Saquon Barkley OVER 24.5 rushing attempts (-120)
Solak: While taking the over on Barkley's rushing attempts is a lot less fun than chasing an over on his line of 124.5 rushing yards -- one of the highest rushing prop lines we've ever seen -- I think this is the smarter play. The Washington Commanders' defense proved in Week 16 that it can stack the box and cause some issues for even the Philadelphia Eagles' mighty rushing game; once Kenny Pickett checked in at quarterback, Barkley had only 41 rushing yards on 22 carries after totaling 109 on his first seven.
I have to imagine that, even with Jalen Hurts in the starting lineup, the Commanders will lean toward that defensive approach again. Hurts has been extremely rough in playoff ball so far, and he is certainly the player you'd rather challenge to beat you. Dan Quinn will load the box and dare the Eagles to pass.
A.J. Brown sits down with Sal Paolantonio to discuss the impact his sideline reading has had on the Eagles and the NFL community.
But even against loaded boxes, the Eagles will give the ball to Barkley. Barkley runs the ball against stacked and light boxes at league-average rates, and, against 8-plus man boxes, still averages 4.5 yards per carry. The Eagles have run the ball at 14% and 16% over expectation in their two playoff games this season. I don't think there's anything the Commanders can do structurally to discourage the Eagles from trying in the running game, even if Barkley is a little less explosive than usual when ramming his head into those loaded boxes.
And if Barkley struggles to rip off big gains, all the better; longer drives mean more rushing attempts.
A.J. Brown 80+ receiving yards (+175)
Walder: There are certainly reasons to be wary of betting on Brown. He has just 24 yards
Brown is an outrageously good receiver who has posted the
I like getting the extra upside of the alt line here. And my model sees more value at this number than at 90-plus (+250) or 70-plus (+125).
Olamide Zaccheaus 25+ receiving yards (+100)
Solak: Since Noah Brown went down with injury before Week 15, there has been a battle for WR2 snaps and production in Washington. Zaccheaus took the big lead, posting 36, 70, 85 and 51 receiving yards in the Commanders' final four regular-season games, respectively. But in the postseason, Dyami Brown has been the go-to option behind Terry McLaurin, posting 89 and 98 receiving yards in two contests.
The roles are very different. Since Week 15, Zaccheaus has averaged a 35.3% target rate on routes against zone coverage and 15.4% against man coverage; Brown is at 11.6% against zone and 26.7% against man coverage. Both spend time outside and in the slot, so it's not a matter of which cover men they face, it's just the design of the defense they're facing.
Vic Fangio's Eagles defense is a little heavier on zone relative to league average, but not by much. However, in the Eagles' first game against the Commanders (in which the defense was very successful), the Eagles were well above their season average in zone coverage, playing it on 82.5% of the snaps. In the subsequent contest, in which the Eagles had a much worse day, they were at only 68.9% zone coverage and sent plenty of man blitzes. (Brown had a 51-yard catch against those Eagles in man coverage).
I expect a return to zone coverage in this game, especially with a backup linebacker in Oren Burks, who needs to be protected in coverage as much as possible. I'm willing to buy the dip on Zaccheaus and fade the Brown hype on such a low number that even if it ends up a Brown game, Zaccheaus can still clear the number on one big catch-and-run.
Jeremy Chinn UNDER 7.5 tackles + assists (-120)
Walder: This is a high line. In fact, it's the highest tackle line Chinn has had all season.
I understand why that's the case. For starters Chinn aligns all over, from deep safety to slot corner to outside linebacker. That helps his tackle prospects relative to the average safety. More important in this matchup specifically, the Commanders are facing a run-heavy Eagles squad in a game in which Philadelphia is favored. That increases the forecast for Chinn's tackles, for sure.
But, again, this is a high line in my opinion and according to the model. There have been 578 previous games this season in which players who played at least 70% of their team's snaps and played safety at least 30% of the time had a tackle prop offered for them. Only 50 of those player games had a line of 7.5 (none were Chinn). Even with the game-specific tailwinds to Chinn's tackle total, the model is willing to bet this number goes just a bit too far. It forecasts 6.4 combined tackles for Chinn.
Bills at Chiefs (-2, 47.5)
Josh Allen to score rushing TD (-105)
Solak: Allen has scored a rushing touchdown in four of his past five postseason games (recording two in two of those). In his four playoff games with Joe Brady as his offensive coordinator, Allen has run in a touchdown in all but one -- the wild-card game against the Denver Broncos this season. In that game, the Buffalo Bills scored an uncharacteristic number of big passing touchdowns
Against the Kansas City Chiefs, I expect Allen to be in full battering ram mode near the goal line. Allen has scored a rushing touchdown in each of the past three games he has played against the Chiefs (all with Brady as OC). This is by design. Under Brady, Allen has averaged 2.2 red zone rushes per game, as opposed to 1.6 and 1.5 with his previous offensive coordinators, Ken Dorsey and Brian Daboll. He has scored a touchdown in 16 of 28 games under Brady, 57% clip.
With an increased likelihood of short-yardage fourth-down attempts, given the opponent and the stakes, I also expect the Bills to generally score more touchdowns and fewer field goals than in an average game -- and additional short-yardage attempts scream additional Allen sneaks or designed carries.
There isn't an Allen rushing prop I don't like in this game, but I think the best value on the board is the potential to score. I like 2-plus touchdowns at +550 for a sprinkle as well.
Allen UNDER 0.5 interceptions (-110)
Walder: I have this as just a small value (pricing Allen's under at -119), but we're rolling with it because hey, there's only two games!
Allen has been exceptional at protecting the ball this season, with a 1.0% interception rate that ranks third best among QBR-qualified quarterbacks. He has a good pass-protecting line in front of him, rarely makes any type of major error these days, and the Bills are unlikely to be trailing big in a desperate situation. Plus, my belief is the Bills are a little undervalued here against the spread -- and if the spread shifted toward Buffalo, that would help the under forecast -- so I'm inclined to lean this direction anyway.
James Cook over 2.5 receptions (+125)
Solak: In his last three games against the Chiefs, Cook has had five, four and five receptions, respectively. That's not with an over-inflated route participation, either. Against Kansas City in Week 11, he ran 15 of the 27 RB routes and saw six targets; In the 2023 divisional round, he ran 14 of the 30 RB routes and saw five targets; in the 2023 regular season, he ran 17 of 38 RB routes and saw another five targets. We should not be worried about a potential 50/50 split in route share with Ty Johnson in this game. The Bills have made it extremely clear that getting Cook targets out of the backfield is a priority against the Chiefs.
The reason this line is so low is because Cook's route participation has seemingly deflated in recent weeks, as the Bills have increasingly relied on the running game in the postseason. Cook ran 12 routes last week against the Baltimore Ravens on only 23 Allen dropbacks, six against the Denver Broncos in a wild-card game in which he led the rushing attack with 23 carries, and had 11, eight and nine, respectively, in the three final Allen regular-season starts.
But again, low route participation should not scare us off an RB who reliably catches his targets in a passing game that is designed to get the ball to the back. Cook had three receptions against the Ravens on only 12 routes and three receptions against the New England Patriots in the regular season on only eight routes! If Cook can clear this line on low route participation, imagine what happens if the Bills trail the Chiefs in the second half and need to pass to get back into it. I'll be taking 4-plus and 5-plus receptions as well for big long shots on a negative script.
Hollywood Brown 35+ receiving yards (-135)
Walder: Yes, he's coming off a goose egg in the divisional round, but I'm happy the model is on Brown, who put up an encouraging 2.8 yards per route run in two regular-season games this season. Even with the zero receiving yards last week, Brown's 1.7 yards per route run number roughly matched his career average. And he's getting an absolutely massive 32% target rate in his three games as a Chief. He also has been running vertical routes at a very low 19% clip, which is why the model is attracted to the lower tail bet here. It believes he is disproportionately more likely to hit this lower yardage total.
Von Miller OVER 0.5 sacks (+325)
Walder: Though playing a part-time role for the Bills these days, Miller is still a sack threat. His 25% pass rush win rate would rank third behind only Micah Parsons and Danielle Hunter, if Miller played enough to qualify. He doesn't, of course, which is a big part of the reason we're getting +325 here, but the raw snaps alone don't tell the whole story of Miller's usage. He has played 34% of defensive snaps in games played, but 56% of defensive snaps in pass-favorable downs and distances. In other words, when it's a known passing situation, Miller is more likely to be on the field. Plus, Patrick Mahomes has been more prone to taking sacks this season. His 5.7% sack rate is still lower than average, but not in the elite category it has been in the past.
Greg Rousseau UNDER 0.5 sacks (-135)
Walder: In some ways, Rousseau's story is just the opposite of Miller's. He's on the field for 71% of snaps and has 10.0 sacks, including the postseason. But the advanced metrics are far less fond of him; he has just a 14% pass-rush win rate, below average for an edge rusher. To be fair to the Bills defensive end, his pressure rate is stronger at 12.4%, which ranks ninth best, though it still trails Miller's number. We're essentially betting that the truth is in the middle between these two pass rushers. Rousseau probably has a better chance than Miller to record a sack, but not to the degree the odds suggest.