In a clash of college football titans, the Ohio State Buckeyes (13-2) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-1) will face off in the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship game on Monday from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. It is a matchup of two of the most storied programs in college football history, each seeking to add another chapter to their legacies.
The game opened with Ohio State as a 9.5-point favorite, but action has seen the spread drop to -8. For Ohio State backers, this presents an opportunity to get a more favorable number. If the line stabilizes at -8, it might suggest a balanced market. But if it ticks back up toward -9, it indicates renewed confidence in the Buckeyes' dominance. If the line continues to move toward Notre Dame (say, to +7.5 or +7), it signals even stronger market confidence in the team's ability to compete or potentially pull off an outright upset.
Line movement tells a story: Bettors are seeing a tighter contest than originally expected. In a game as monumental as the national championship, focus on picking the outright winner and let the spread guide how you manage your bets from there.
Here's a breakdown of Ohio State and Notre Dame, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of each team, along with insights on the side, total, props, and a final prediction.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
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College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T
Ohio State Buckeyes (-8, 45.5) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Monday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Records: Notre Dame 12-3, 4-1 vs. AP Top 25 teams; Ohio State 11-2, 3-1 vs. AP Top 25 teams
Opening Line: Ohio State -9.5, O/U 46.5
Money line: Ohio State (-380); Notre Dame (+290)
Over/Under: 45.5 (O -115, U 105)
FPI Projection Ohio State by 1.9 points (55.3% chance to win)
Ohio State's offense vs. Notre Dame's defense
Ryan Day's squad has consistently turned setbacks into fuel for its championship run. The Buckeyes overcame a regular-season loss to Michigan, dominated Tennessee, pulled off an upset over top-ranked Oregon in the Rose Bowl and defeated Texas in the Cotton Bowl.
At the center of the team's dynamic offense is quarterback Will Howard, supported by a stellar receiving corps. The matchup against Notre Dame's elite pass defense is shaping up to be a classic "unstoppable force meets immovable object" scenario.
Notre Dame's All-America safety Xavier Watts (six interceptions and eight pass breakups this season) will be a key factor in slowing down freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith. Smith has shredded defenses throughout the playoffs but was limited against Texas in the semifinal.
If Notre Dame locks down Smith, veteran Emeka Egbuka should shine. Egbuka has been a consistent threat, with 15 receptions for 204 yards and a touchdown in the playoff. As defensive attention shifts to Smith, Egbuka may find favorable matchups, setting the stage for a game-changing performance.
Notre Dame's secondary, though statistically impressive, might have benefited from a light schedule. The Irish struggled against USC, allowing 360 passing yards, before recovering against weaker opponents such as Indiana, Georgia's backup quarterback, and a Penn State offense that failed to complete a pass to a receiver. Ohio State's offense operates at an entirely different level.
In the trenches, Notre Dame's blitz-heavy front seven has been dominant this postseason, recording eight sacks. Ohio State's offensive line will need to step up to protect Howard, who thrives against the blitz, completing 80% of his passes in such situations during the playoffs.
The Buckeyes' ground game, led by TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, could exploit Notre Dame's vulnerability against gap runs. The Irish rank 75th in FBS for run defense, allowing 5 yards per carry. Henderson, with his 29 explosive runs on just 118 attempts, is primed to take advantage. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly's reliance on gap schemes -- dialed up 69% of the time in the CFP -- creates the perfect storm for Ohio State's rushing attack.
Notre Dame leads the nation with 32 takeaways, including 13 fumbles, capitalizing on opponents' mistakes. Ball security will be paramount for Ohio State to avoid falling victim to the Irish turnover machine.
This game will be a test of strategy, balancing Ohio State's explosive plays with ball control against Notre Dame's opportunistic, man-coverage defense. Red zone efficiency might prove decisive. While the Buckeyes rank third nationally, converting 77% of red zone trips into touchdowns, they'll face a solid but occasionally lapse-prone Notre Dame red zone defense.
Since its loss to Michigan, Ohio State's remarkable transformation saw it shift from a pass-heavy approach to a more balanced attack, using the run game to control tempo and keep defenses honest. Paradoxically, this shift has made the team's passing game more aggressive, with Howard's deep throws (20-plus yards) increasing during the playoffs.
However, offensive inconsistency remains a concern. The Buckeyes have converted just 11 of 30 third-down attempts in the playoff. The offensive line's struggles under pressure, coupled with penalties and a lack of rhythm, have hampered the team's ability to sustain drives. Howard's efficiency drops from 72% in a clean pocket to 62% under duress. Despite these challenges, the Buckeyes' red zone efficiency has been a saving grace.
Notre Dame's offense vs. Ohio State's defense
Marcus Freeman's squad has embraced a "choose hard" philosophy, relying on tenacity and unwavering resolve to fuel its championship pursuit. Offensively, Notre Dame thrives on its ground game, led by Jeremiyah Love, whose efficiency (7.4 yards per carry, best among Power 4 rushers) has been the engine of the team's success. However, the Irish face a formidable challenge against Ohio State's defense, third nationally against the run. Linebacker Cody Simon and safety Sonny Styles will be crucial in containing Love. To remain competitive, the Irish might need to diversify their attack, incorporating more passing plays to prevent the Buckeyes from keying in on their rushing tendencies.
Ohio State's defense, first nationally in scoring, has been the cornerstone of its success. Anchored by J.T. Tuimoloau, the Buckeyes' defensive line has been dominant, with Jack Sawyer's standout performance in the semifinal underscoring its depth. Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard adds a dynamic element with his dual-threat abilities, amassing 866 rushing yards, a skill set he'll need against a relentless Ohio State front that has racked up 51 sacks. While Leonard's mobility presents a challenge, the Buckeyes have shown adaptability, as evidenced by their eight-sack performance against Oregon's Dillon Gabriel in the CFP quarterfinal. Forcing Leonard into a pure-passing role -- where he has struggled, completing only six passes under pressure while taking six sacks in three postseason games -- will be key.
Ohio State's strategy against Leonard will likely involve maintaining rush lane discipline, utilizing "creeper blitzes" and employing three-safety looks to limit his ability to extend plays. As a big, physical runner who excels on designed runs and improvisation, Leonard will test the Buckeyes' ability to collapse the pocket. A dedicated spy shadowing his movements and disciplined downfield coverage will be essential. If Ohio State can account for Leonard's size and mobility, it stands a strong chance of neutralizing his impact.
In coverage, the Buckeyes must balance man and zone schemes to keep Leonard guessing. Three-safety looks will bolster run support without compromising pass defense, while linebackers like Simon will be instrumental in covering short and intermediate routes. Ohio State's primary defensive weakness lies in its secondary, particularly with cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Davison Igbinosun, who have struggled with consistency. Penalties, lapses in coverage, and big plays have been issues, as demonstrated in their regular-season loss to Oregon, where they allowed throws of 69 and 48 yards. However, Notre Dame lacks a game-changing receiving corps, which hinders it from exploiting this vulnerability.
Ultimately, Ohio State's defense must strike a balance between pressure and coverage to rattle Leonard, who has thrown three postseason interceptions, including two in the semifinal against Penn State. Even with Leonard's 16 rushing touchdowns, Notre Dame's run-heavy offense faces an uphill battle against Ohio State's red zone defense, which leads the nation by allowing touchdowns on just 29.6% of goal-to-go plays.
If the Buckeyes can contain Leonard and force Notre Dame out of its comfort zone, they'll have a strong chance to shake the Irish's confidence and control the game.
Player props
Will Howard to score a touchdown (+275)
Howard has a knack for creativity. He nearly had a rushing score in the semifinal against Texas, breaking free for an 18-yard run on fourth-and-2 in Texas territory, only to stumble in open field just short of the end zone. Howard joked that he fell on purpose after the game and said he should have scored. What better time for redemption than on college football's biggest stage?
The Irish, dealing with injuries, may leave gaps in the run game for Howard to exploit. If Notre Dame's pass defense tightens the aerial lanes, Howard could take matters into his own hands. With eight gap runs in his past three games, the goal line is certainly within his reach.
Howard has also excelled on outside runs, scoring four touchdowns on left-end and right-end plays. He's averaged six rush attempts per game, keeping defenses honest. Against Notre Dame, he might rely on his legs even more.
TreVeyon Henderson OVER 56.5 rushing yards; Henderson to score a touchdown (-120)
A big performance is loading for Henderson. He has 216 rushing yards in the postseason, with 130 yards coming on outside runs to the left and right ends -- exactly where Notre Dame's defense has struggled most. Ohio State's heavy reliance on pulling linemen to create leverage on the edge plays right into Henderson's strengths. Pair that with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly's knack for exploiting mismatches, and Henderson should feast.
With five touchdowns (four rushing, one receiving) in his past three games -- three on outside runs -- Henderson has been a scoring machine.
Ohio State -8 vs. Notre Dame
It's the Buckeyes for me, thanks to their balanced offense, suffocating defense and postseason adjustments. Ohio State simply has too many offensive weapons for Notre Dame to handle, while its defense has been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks.
Notre Dame has been impressive since its loss to Northern Illinois, with Freeman's exceptional coaching and the "luck of the Irish" seemingly propelling the team forward. However, the Buckeyes are a healthier, more complete team. Their depth, versatility and red zone dominance give me confidence they'll not only win but also cover the spread en route to their ninth national championship.
Notre Dame, despite its grit and bravado, could falter under the pressure of being overconfident and making risky decisions, leading to turnovers and missed opportunities. Notre Dame's missteps will give Ohio State the edge and allow it to assert its dominance in every aspect of the game.
UNDER 46
Final score prediction: Ohio State 27, Notre Dame 7
With the nation's two best scoring defenses on display, expect a defensive slugfest. While both teams have shown some leaks against the run, their elite pass defenses should force a ground-and-pound battle that controls the clock. In a high-stakes, defense-driven showdown, a low-scoring affair feels inevitable.
Live betting tips
Ohio State-Notre Dame 2H UNDER
Ryan Day's extensive experience and offensive creativity give him an edge over the relatively unseasoned Marcus Freeman. However, Notre Dame's true X factor lies with defensive coordinator Al Golden, a mastermind of second-half adjustments. Golden's ability to pivot midgame -- whether by dialing up creative blitz packages, disguising coverage schemes or shoring up the run defense -- has been the Irish's secret weapon all season.
Notre Dame held Penn State to just 63 second-half rushing yards in the Orange Bowl and smothered Georgia's offense in the Sugar Bowl, allowing only seven points after halftime. If Golden's adjustments lead to limiting explosive plays from the Buckeyes and tightening coverage, it would lend to a slower-paced second half with fewer scoring opportunities.
Considering the second-half adjustments typically made by Notre Dame's defense, I envision the Buckeyes going into the half up 14-7 or 17-7 and Notre Dame getting shut out in the second half, changing the game flow. The game could finish with only one touchdown, or two field goals scored in the second half combined.
Ohio State ML in the third quarter
Few teams in college football rival the Buckeyes in third-quarter dominance. Ohio State ranks first in third-quarter points scored per game, showcasing an ability to come out of the locker room ready to close things out. Whether it's explosive plays or sustained drives, the Buckeyes know how to take control of a game.
Ohio State is also first in third-quarter opponent points per game. The Buckeyes don't just score; they suffocate their opponents, making it nearly impossible to keep pace with them during this crucial stretch.
Expect Ohio State's offense to use methodical drives to control the clock in the third quarter if it is up. This allows Ohio State to win the quarter while still keeping the second-half total under in play.