As the college football bowl season reaches its crescendo, there are three matchups to consider on your betting card. The ReliaQuest Bowl pits perennial powerhouse Alabama against a resurgent Michigan, while the First Responder Bowl showcases an in-state showdown between North Texas and Texas State. Rounding out our preview is the Citrus Bowl, featuring a clash between Illinois and South Carolina.
These games offer a mix of traditional rivalries, high-powered offenses and defensive battles. Let's dive into the key factors, betting odds and predictions for these bowl matchups.
All odds accurate as of publication time. For the latest odds, go to ESPN BET.
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
North Texas vs. Texas State (-13.5, 60.5)
Friday, Jan 3, 4 p.m., ESPN
Even with key absences on both sides, the ingredients for a high-scoring showdown are undeniable.
North Texas may be without starting quarterback Chandler Morris, but true freshman Drew Mestemaker is ready to seize his moment. Mestemaker flashed potential in limited action this season, completing 4-of-5 passes for 69 yards, including a 49-yard strike to former high school teammate Miles Coleman against Texas Tech. The chemistry between Mestemaker and Coleman could be the secret sauce that keeps the Mean Green offense humming. Texas State will feel the absence of cornerback Josh Eaton, giving UNT some wiggle room for finding deep threats downfield.
The Bobcats will also be without running back Ismail Mahdi, who accounted for nearly 40% of their ground game. Mahdi's absence could likely shift the Bobcats toward a pass-heavy strategy, perfectly suited to the talents of quarterback Jordan McCloud. McCloud has been sensational this season, ranking sixth nationally in touchdown passes and thriving in high-tempo scenarios.
Both teams have electrifying offenses. That's the DNA of North Texas, regardless of who is behind center, while Texas State sits fifth in yards per game. But what makes this even more enticing is the defensive inefficiency on both sides. North Texas is 119th in touchdowns allowed, while Texas State is 67th in red zone scores allowed -- numbers that suggest a feast for both offenses.
Expect an aerial show from the opening whistle. Mestemaker will look to prove himself with big plays, and McCloud is primed to capitalize on the Bobcats' shift to a pass-first approach. With defenses likely to bend -- and break -- early and often, turnovers, short fields and explosive plays should push this game well past the 60-point total.
Pam's pick: Over 60.5 points
ReliaQuest Bowl
No. 11 Alabama (-14. 43.5) vs. Michigan
Tuesday, Dec 31, Noon, ESPN
This matchup is a showcase of contrasts, particularly at the quarterback position. With Jalen Milroe leading the charge, the Crimson Tide enter with a clear edge in offensive stability and firepower.
Milroe has been electric this season, amassing 2,652 passing yards, while adding a staggering 20 touchdowns on the ground, second-most among quarterbacks. His dual-threat ability and knack for making big plays set the tone for Alabama's high-octane offense.
Michigan, however, faces uncertainty at quarterback. Davis Warren is expected to start, but his struggles this season -- six touchdowns to nine interceptions -- raise concerns. To add variety, the Wolverines may turn to Alex Orji, whose running ability could offer a spark. Yet, relying on a two-quarterback system in a high-stakes bowl game rarely leads to consistency.
The Wolverines' offensive woes don't end there. With star running backs Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings unavailable (accounting for 16 of Michigan's 18 rushing touchdowns), the backfield duties will fall to inexperienced players Jordan Marshall and Benjamin Hall, who together have logged just 21 carries this season. Marshall and Hall's lack of experience could lead to early struggles as Michigan attempts to find rhythm against an Alabama defense that remains formidable despite some personnel losses.
Meanwhile, Alabama's defense is positioned to capitalize on Michigan's vulnerabilities. The absence of standout pass rusher Josiah Stewart further limits Michigan's ability to disrupt Milroe, giving Alabama's offense more time to execute and dominate the tempo.
The first-half spread for Alabama (-7.5) looks enticing. With Milroe's dynamic playmaking and Michigan's clear offensive hurdles, the Crimson Tide are poised to build a lead before halftime. Milroe's commitment to play ensures some fireworks in the early stages, while his undecided draft status injects some uncertainty for the second half -- making the first-half line a more confident wager.
In a bowl season where opt-outs and transfers can dramatically reshape teams, Alabama's quarterback advantage and Michigan's depleted offense paint a clear picture: The Tide should roll early in this one.
Pam's pick: Alabama 1H (-7.5). Michigan won first half 16-10.
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
No. 15 South Carolina (-10, 49.5) vs. No. 20 Illinois
Tuesday, Dec 31, 3 p.m., ABC
Don't be quick to count out Illinois. This matchup presents a prime opportunity for the Fighting Illini to challenge a South Carolina team that finds itself significantly weakened in key areas.
South Carolina's game plan has revolved around a bruising run game and relentless pass rush, but both strengths will be compromised. The absence of star running back Raheim Sanders, who accounted for a massive 38% of the team's rushing yards and 11 of their 25 rushing touchdowns, leaves a glaring hole in their offense. With Sanders sidelined, Illinois can zero in on containing dual-threat quarterback LaNorris Sellers, who will have to shoulder a heavier load.
On defense, the Gamecocks will be without Kyle Kennard, the SEC's leading sack artist and a top-10 disruptor nationally with 11.5 sacks. Kennard's absence is a gift for Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer, who has spent much of the season under duress, enduring 31 sacks. With reduced pressure, Altmyer's efficiency and ball security -- 21 touchdowns against just five interceptions -- could shine.
Illinois brings experience and resilience to the table, having faced and often excelled against mobile quarterbacks and run-heavy offenses. Wins over Kansas and Michigan and tight, one-score battles against Minnesota and Rutgers demonstrate their ability to hang with physical opponents. This familiarity could be critical against a South Carolina team missing its offensive identity.
While Illinois will be without leading receiver Pat Bryant, Altmyer's knack for spreading the ball around ensures the offense remains versatile. Coupled with a balanced attack and a defense that thrives in the trenches, the Illini are poised to take advantage of the Gamecocks' weakened roster.
At +10, Illinois looks like a strong play, but the potential for an outright upset shouldn't be overlooked. With South Carolina missing key pieces on both sides of the ball, the Fighting Illini have the tools to leave Orlando with more than just a moral victory.
Pick: Illinois (+10). Line closed at Illinois (+9.5). Illinois won 21-17.