As the 2024 college football season reaches its climactic finale, Week 15 brings us the highly anticipated conference championships. These games not only determine the champions of each conference, but they also play a crucial role in shaping the landscape of the College Football Playoff.
With the expanded 12-team playoff format now in place, the stakes have never been higher. From the SEC showdown between the No. 2 Texas Longhorns and No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs to the Big Ten's clash of titans with the top-ranked Oregon Ducks facing the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions, each championship game carries immense weight.
As we break down each conference championship, we'll highlight key matchups, standout players and potential game-changing factors -- all through a betting lens. The focus is on providing actionable insights to give bettors an edge, whether it's spotting value in the lines, identifying trends or uncovering potential upsets on the path to a conference trophy.
All lines current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET.
Dr. Pepper Big 12 Championship
No. 16 Iowa State at No. 15 Arizona State (-2, 49.5)
Saturday, Noon ET, ABC
In Week 13, I boldly took Arizona State at +350 to win the Big 12 -- and I'm sticking to my guns for the championship game. The first-ever meeting between the Sun Devils and Cyclones is more than just a title bout; it's a shot at a CFP berth for both teams.
It has been a Cinderella story in the desert. Predicted to finish dead last in their inaugural Big 12 season, the Sun Devils have flipped the script entirely, riding grit, determination and an unstoppable ground game to the championship stage.
The heartbeat behind the Sun Devils' offense is star running back Cam Skattebo. Skattebo has rushed over 150 yards in three of his last four games and is fifth in the nation in yards after contact, showcasing a knack for turning defenders into highlights. His ability to get stronger as the game progresses will be pivotal against a Cyclones defense that has struggled mightily against the run.
Iowa State's defensive weakness is no secret. The Cyclones rank 96th in rushing yards allowed and have been gashed by strong runners all season. In a Week 10 loss to Kansas, Cyclones fans watched helplessly as Devin Neal racked up 116 yards and three scores. Arizona State's ground attack, which has the fourth-most rushing touchdowns in the Big 12, poses an even greater threat.
To their credit, Matt Campbell's Cyclones have enjoyed a stellar season, achieving their first 10-win campaign and a return to the championship stage. But with a rushing defense that is 14th out of 16 Big 12 teams, containing Skattebo and the Sun Devils' surging offense will be a tall order.
The neutral venue at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas eliminates any home-field edge, favoring Arizona State's momentum and physicality. In a game where both teams need a win to keep playoff hopes alive, the Sun Devils' ability to control the clock and dictate the pace through their rushing attack gives them the upper hand.
Arizona State's underdog-to-champion story is one for the books, and its ground game is the perfect tool to close it out.
If you already have a ticket on Arizona State +350 to win the Big 12 championship, then you are in good position. The potential payout at +350 significantly outweighs the security of a hedge.
Pick: Arizona State -2
MAC Championship
Ohio at Miami (OH) (-1.5, 44.5)
Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN
The smart play is backing Ohio +1.5, but the value lies with Ohio on the moneyline (+115), thanks to the rise of their dual-threat quarterback, Parker Navarro, whose rushing skills could be the X-factor.
The neutral site at Ford Field in Detroit negates Miami's prior home-field advantage. And while Miami claimed a 30-20 victory in the regular-season matchup of these teams, that was before Navarro's transformation into a rushing dynamo. Early in the season, he averaged a respectable 69 rushing yards per game, but has exploded in recent weeks with over 104 rushing yards in three consecutive games. Navarro has also tallied nine rushing touchdowns over his last four games, more than double his output from his first seven starts.
While Miami's defense is solid overall, it has a glaring vulnerability: mobile quarterbacks. The RedHawks have struggled to contain dual-threat QBs, allowing 80 rushing yards to UMass QB Taisun Phommachanh in Week 5, 143 yards and two rushing TDs to Notre Dame's Riley Leonard in Week 4 and 65 yards and one rushing touchdown to Northwestern's Mike Wright in Week 1.
With Navarro's surging confidence and Miami's documented struggles against rushing quarterbacks, this matchup tilts in Ohio's favor.
The RedHawks Achilles' heel could be their red zone defense. Miami has given up 16 of their 24 touchdowns on the ground, with 18 coming in the red zone. This plays directly into Navarro's wheelhouse, as Ohio's QB thrives in short-yardage, high-pressure situations. Miami's inability to lock down opponents in the red zone is a glaring concern against Navarro's dual-threat skill set. If Ohio jumps ahead, Miami faces an uphill battle. Ranked 131st in red zone touchdown scoring percentage and 108th in overall touchdowns scored, their offense could struggle to keep pace.
Pick: Ohio +1.5 offers less risk for those seeking a cushion. Ohio ML (+125) is the play for value bettors who believe Navarro's continued growth and Miami's defensive vulnerabilities will swing the game.
SEC Championship
No. 5 Georgia at No. 2 Texas (-2.5, 49.5)
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, ABC
With both teams likely to reach the CFP even with a loss, the focus shifts to securing a top-four seed and coveted first-round bye with a victory. The result? A potential conservative approach, at least from the Texas offense, emphasizing risk mitigation, which could help keep this score low.
Texas has leaned heavily on its revitalized run game with Quintrevion Wisner, who has rushed for over 150 yards in consecutive games at an impressive 5.8 yards per carry. By keeping the ball on the ground, Texas can limit turnovers and protect quarterback Quinn Ewers, whose critical mistakes -- like a costly pick-six against Texas A&M -- nearly derailed the Longhorns' regular-season finale.
Meanwhile, Georgia's vulnerabilities against the run were exposed against Georgia Tech (260 rushing yards allowed in 37 minutes of possession). If Texas can replicate that success on the ground, the Bulldogs may be forced into a grind-it-out affair.
Georgia's offense, led by quarterback Carson Beck, also faces challenges against a Texas defense that ranks third in red zone touchdowns allowed and second overall in scores allowed. Opponents simply aren't sustaining drives or finding the end zone with consistency against this Longhorns squad.
Adding to the intrigue, Texas has the fifth-best pass rush grade in the nation. In their previous meeting, the Longhorns generated 14 pressures on Beck, keeping Georgia out of the end zone through the air and setting the tone for another defensive battle.
With elite defenses on both sides and a shared emphasis on controlling the clock and minimizing mistakes, expect a low-scoring game.
Pick: UNDER 49.5
Sun Belt Championship
Marshall at Louisiana (-5.5, 56.5)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
This is a classic chess match rooted in tempo, tendencies and defensive discipline. Both teams have shown a clear pattern of slow starts.
Louisiana's home games have been the epitome of low-scoring openers. In four of the Ragin' Cajuns' five home games, one team has been blanked in the first quarter, underscoring their defense's early-game dominance and their offense's tendency to take its time settling into a rhythm. Marshall mirrors this trend in road games. In three of the Thundering Herd's last four away contests, they have either failed to score or kept their opponents scoreless in the opening frame.
Their deliberate pace -- evident in a 55% time-of-possession in first quarters (22nd nationally) -- sets a methodical tone that limits opportunities for both sides to light up the scoreboard early.
The reliance on ground-and-pound strategies from both teams further supports the under. Marshall ranks 20th and Louisiana 32nd nationally in rushing yards, leaning heavily on their rushing attacks to grind out yards and chew up the clock. This reliance on long, sustained drives reduces the likelihood of explosive scoring plays and fast-paced starts.
With both teams favoring a conservative opening approach and showcasing stout early defenses, the ingredients are all there for a tight, low-scoring first quarter.
Pick: UNDER 13.5 points in the first quarter
Big Ten Championship
No. 3 Penn State at No. 1 Oregon (-3.5. 49.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, CBS
Sometimes the simplest plays are the sharpest, and in this matchup, the Ducks are the clear choice. Oregon's offense is a finely-tuned machine, while James Franklin's history against top-tier teams remains a glaring red flag.
Oregon is an offensive powerhouse. It begins upfront with a strong offensive line that has allowed only 12 total sacks to quarterback Dillon Gabriel, tied for the fifth-fewest in the nation, providing the foundation for a balanced attack that Penn State has yet to encounter. Gabriel, who is second in the nation in completion percentage, is the steady hand at the wheel, while running back Jordan James, rated as PFF's No. 2 RB behind only Heisman contender Ashton Jeanty, brings power and explosiveness to the ground game. Add in the return of star wideout Tez Johnson and the Ducks present a multi-dimensional challenge that will stretch even a stout Penn State defense to its limits.
Contrast that with Franklin's 1-12 record against top-five teams, a testament to his struggles in big moments. While Oregon head coach Dan Lanning thrives on aggressive, high-pressure play-calling, Franklin's conservative tendencies and untimely gambles have often cost Penn State dearly in marquee matchups.
Oregon's offensive firepower isn't just theoretical, it's proven. A 38-17 dismantling of Michigan earlier this season and Gabriel's 341-yard performance against Ohio State underscore the Ducks' ability to perform against elite competition. These wins weren't flukes -- they were statements.
Meanwhile, Penn State's strong defense hasn't faced an offense with Oregon's balance and explosiveness, outside of Ohio State. Gabriel's pinpoint passing, James' ground dominance and Johnson's ability to stretch the field present a puzzle the Nittany Lions may not solve.
Oregon -3.5 is more than just a solid play, it's a bet on a team ready to make yet another statement in its Big Ten debut season. Don't overthink this one. The Ducks are primed to not only cover but potentially push the total over 49.5 with their offensive fireworks.
Pick: Oregon -3.5.
ACC Championship
No. 17 Clemson at No. 8 SMU (-2.5, 55.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Clemson +2.5 isn't just an intriguing play, it's a calculated bet on a team with championship pedigree. The line movement from Clemson -1.5 to +2.5 provides added value for Tigers backers.
Despite preseason narratives suggesting Clemson might falter due to Dabo Sweeney's hesitance to use the transfer portal, the Tigers have shown resilience, particularly in their passing game.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik, ranked 15th in PFF's QB grading, brings a blend of skill, poise and big-game experience. This is his third postseason appearance, and his ability to rise to the occasion is a key factor in Clemson's offense.
SMU's defense has been solid against the run but is glaringly vulnerable against the pass, ranking 92nd in pass yards allowed. What's more, the Mustangs haven't faced an offense like Clemson's all season. Their schedule has been heavy with run-oriented teams, leaving them relatively untested against a quarterback of Klubnik's caliber. Clemson's balanced offense, featuring the power running of Phil Mafah, will keep SMU honest, opening up opportunities for Klubnik to exploit their secondary.
Experience matters, especially in games like this. Clemson has consistently thrived on the big stage, while SMU enters this championship with far less exposure to high-pressure, nationally-relevant matchups. The Tigers' postseason pedigree and ability to adjust in real time give them a significant edge.
While the line movement might indicate money on SMU, it could just as easily be an overreaction to Clemson's perceived struggles while losing to South Carolina in its final regular-season game, one that I expected to happen, as written in last week's signature piece.
The Tigers are battle-tested, offensively balanced and capable of capitalizing on SMU's defensive vulnerabilities.
In Week 5, I suggested on ESPN BET Live to back Clemson +275 to win the ACC. Given my confidence in Clemson to win outright and the fact that +275 is a current ticket, taking just the +2.5 is the way to go, as it gives some cushion, winning the spread bet while losing the futures ticket. Or, like the others, let it ride with no +2.5 attached.
Pick: Clemson +2.5
Conference USA Championship
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (-4, 57.5)
Friday, 7 p.m. ET, CBSSN
The Hilltoppers and Gamecocks meet in a rematch of Week 14, this time for the C-USA championship. Western Kentucky quarterback Caden Veltkamp has been a force, leading the conference with 22 touchdowns and ranking second in passing yards (2,665). Last week, his pinpoint accuracy sparked explosive plays of 27, 29,and 24 yards, showcasing the Hilltoppers' big-play potential.