Welcome to Week 4. We have a few undefeated teams left, a few winless teams left and a whole bunch of 2-1 and 1-2 teams that ... might be good? I can't remember a September with more perceived parity in the NFL. Fun to watch, fun to break down -- hard to predict.
I have three key games to watch this week, with a game-level bet for each (side or total), as well as a prop for each -- and a few more lines and props I'm targeting that you'll find at the bottom of the page.
All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.
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Week 3 recap | Bills-Ravens | Rams-Bears | Eagles-Buccaneers | Quick hits and SGP
Week 3 recap
A better week than Week 2, but still a bad week -- and far more frustrating. Kirk Cousins went over his passing total on the last completion of the game (after consecutive three-and-outs from the Chiefs to give him more opportunities), and Brock Bowers missed our parlay by four yards. We had a bounce-back week in sight, but it just broke wrong at the end.
It has been a wild betting year. Of the 12 underdogs of at least six points to start the season, seven have won outright. It's the second-worst start for the public in the past two decades. We should expect things to normalize over time. But still, painful to see.
Week 3: 4-7 (-2.68 units)
Overall: 11-20 (-7.38u)
Spread: 2-4 (-2.1u)
Total: 3-3 (-0.31u)
Props: 6-10 (-4.38u)
Same-game parlay: 0-3 (-0.6u)
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 46.5)
If you thought the Josh Allen hype was wild after a Week 3 drubbing of the listless Jacksonville Jaguars, wait and see what happens if Allen goes thermonuclear in Week 4 against the Ravens.
The potential for an Allen explosion is sky high because the Ravens are a pass-funnel defense. They have the best run defense in the league by success rate and second-best by EPA, but against dropbacks, they're below average in both metrics.
Of course, those numbers are a little skewed by the early leads Baltimore built over the Las Vegas Raiders and Dallas Cowboys. But even when we filter out plays in which either team had a win probability over 90%, this is still a top-two run defense and an average pass defense. Next Gen Stats has a "run % over expectation" number that adjusts play calls for contexts like the scoreboard and down and distance, and it agrees -- no team has seen more dropbacks over expectation than the Ravens' defense through three weeks.
Improvements could be on the way for Baltimore. Rookie cornerback Nate Wiggins returned to the starting lineup after sitting out Week 2 because of a neck injury, and edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue rejoined the team to improve its pass-rush presence. But neither of those additions move the needle enough with Buffalo coming to town.
Through three weeks, no team has a better dropback game than the Bills, who are first in success rate and first in EPA (by a country mile, too). Everything about the Bills' new-look passing game is humming. The ball is coming out fast -- Allen's 2.83 time to throw is the fastest of his career -- because the Bills' QB is willing to distribute underneath (72.2% of his passes are under 10 air yards, which is the highest percentage of his career). Because the passing game is working as expected, only 7.4% of pressures on Allen are ending in sacks (again, the best mark of his career, but also the best number in the league right now). Allen feels like an elite NBA point guard at the moment, perfectly capable of executing the offense, and when the shot clock gets low, equally capable of creating a shot himself.
I'm pretty suspicious of the Ravens' ability to slow down this offense. The Bills don't need the early down running game to get their offense working, so even if the Ravens' stifling run defense forces Joe Brady to call a one-dimensional game, the Bills will be comfortable. The Ravens played a lot of man coverage against Dallas, challenging anyone but CeeDee Lamb to beat them. That won't work against the Bills, who have an array of good pass catchers at a variety of positions.
The Ravens would then need to win this game on offense -- which is possible. Baltimore's offensive line, which looked like a major weakness entering the season, has improved each week and had a solid game against Dallas.
Of course, most running games will look good against Dallas' defense front. But that doesn't change the recipe for success against Buffalo: get heavy personnel on the field and run the ball, as the Bills play almost exclusively four-down fronts and have generally light personnel (with Ed Oliver, Dorian Williams and Cam Lewis) on the field. The Ravens have played more 12 personnel than any team in the league this year, and the Bills will almost certainly match that with nickel personnel, fearful of the pass-catching prowess of both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. If the Ravens have success on offense, it will be with Derrick Henry on the ground.
Both offenses should have success Sunday night -- so lean to the over, right? But with all the quick underneath completions the Bills get and the ever-churning running game the Ravens have, I think this clock sprints to the finish. Doubly so when you look at how often Lamar Jackson and Allen turn dropbacks into scrambles (they're second and third in scramble rate, respectively), which eliminates incompletions and keeps the clock moving.
I don't want the total. Instead, I want the Bills +2.5. I like Buffalo to put points up early in the passing game and try to get the Ravens out of their ideal offensive script. And even if the Bills fall behind early, I have a lot of faith in Allen's ability to throw their way back into the game. I'll be looking to live bet this game in the event of an early Ravens lead, as the Ravens have struggled to maintain second-half leads for years now, and we know Allen is prolific in a deficit.
The bet: Bills +2.5 (-110)
There are a lot of props I like for this game. For instance, James Cook unders, as the Bills avoiding the Ravens' run defense feels good. Jackson rushing overs make sense, as I imagine he and Ravens OC Todd Monken will deploy a similar offensive approach as they did against the Chiefs when Jackson rushed 15 times for over 100 yards.
But the prop I'll post for the column is on Justice Hill's receiving. The Ravens' running backs have very clear roles. According to Next Gen Stats, the Ravens have a 70% run rate with Henry on the field; with Hill on the field, they have a 65.6% pass rate. Since Monken took over the Ravens' offense in 2023, we've seen him use running backs heavily as designed targets in the passing game -- swings, screens -- and we know Jackson trusts Hill underneath on third downs.
Hill had eight targets on 19 routes in Week 1 in a competitive game against the Chiefs and has had only four targets in two games since. But in both of those games, the Ravens had multiscore leads and high expected run rates. They passed only 14 times in Week 3. Opportunity should be much higher for Hill in Week 4, given an expected tight game script and the potential for some two-minute drills. The Bills' zone-heavy approach often funnels targets underneath to the backs.
The bet: Justice Hill OVER 2.5 receptions (+120)
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (-3, 41.5)
The Bears delivered for us last week, holding the Indianapolis Colts below 21.5 points and getting DJ Moore over 59.5 receiving yards. It took some good bounces -- a completed Hail Mary and an Anthony Richardson end zone interception -- but it was a chaotic game all around.
This week, the Bears welcome the Rams to town. This might truly be the best defense in the NFL against the worst. The Bears are first in success rate and fifth in EPA per play surrendered; the Rams are 31st in both. The Rams' unit was able to do just enough against a depleted San Francisco 49ers offense last week to carry their weight in Los Angeles' 14-point second-half comeback, but the lack of coverage options in the defensive backfield is impossible to ignore. When the score was tied late, a game-clincher hit Ronnie Bell in the hands downfield, but he dropped it. Brandon Aiyuk was wide open downfield on the next play, and Brock Purdy couldn't find him. The holes are there.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) September 26, 2024
Without question, the Rams' biggest issue has been defending the deep ball. Their secondary is either young players who were expected to be depth this season (Quentin Lake, Cobie Durant, Kamren Kinchens) or veteran players without tons of athleticism (Tre'Davious White, John Johnson III). Per Next Gen Stats, no team has given up more completions, yards or touchdowns on throws 20-plus yards downfield than the Rams -- and again, that's with some meat left on the bone by the 49ers.
The Bears have been trying to get their deep passing game off the ground, and there were finally some results in Week 3. Caleb Williams didn't complete any of his 10 deep balls in Weeks 1 and 2, but against the Colts he was 3-for-9 (again, one of those was a Hail Mary). After seeing intended air yards of 2.8 and 6.6 in his first two games, respectively, rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze had an average of 10.2 air yards in Week 3. The fact Williams and the Bears are still pushing the ball downfield despite a lack of early season success is great news as they enter this game -- the deep opportunities will be there against the Rams.
Accordingly, I'm buying low on the Bears for Week 4. The lack of offensive success has been enormously frustrating, and the running game and offensive line issues aren't going anywhere anytime soon. Right tackle Darnell Wright didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday, and it looks as if Matt Pryor (who started at right guard over the benched Nate Davis) might have to kick to right tackle in Wright's place. But offensive line injuries don't really move me for the Bears; they have had the worst unit in football, and it's not going to get much worse shuffling it around because of injuries.
We saw Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels have an explosive performance against a dreadful Cincinnati Bengals defense Monday night. I think the same happens for Williams in Week 4 against these Rams, especially with wide receiver Keenan Allen expected to return from injury.
The bet: Caleb Williams OVER 224.5 passing yards (-120)
If Chicago's offense delivers in any given week, we should expect a Bears win, because this defense continues to play lights out.
But keep an eye on the injury report. Star edge rusher Montez Sweat was limited in practice Wednesday and Thursday, while his breakout running mate Darrell Taylor sat out both practices. But so long as Sweat is good to go, expect this front to dominate a depleted and struggling Rams offensive line. Quietly, veteran nose tackle Andrew Billings and second-year tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. have produced one of the best interior rushes so far this season, which is elevating this defense from great to potentially elite.
Yet, no matter how talented a defense is, Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay always present a stiff test. But I think the Bears are well equipped to deal with this version of the system, from which both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are still absent. The Rams still rely on pre-snap motion to create leverage, favorable matchups, easy completions, but so far this season the Bears are the best passing defense in the league against motion. They give up a successful play on only 33.3% of such dropbacks, according to Next Gen Stats.
Last week was a big, emotional win for the Rams, beating a Niners team that typically has their number in dramatic, come-from-behind fashion. But they probably should have lost that game, and they probably should lose most of their games until the offense gets healthier. On the road against a young, healthy Chicago team desperate for wins feels like a prime letdown spot for the Rams.
This line opened at -1, quickly moved to -2.5 and has vacillated between -2.5 and -3. We will grade it against 3, as that's what's currently posted, but I wouldn't be surprised if 2.5s show up again before kickoff. Be a little patient here.
The pick: Bears -3 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles (-2, 43.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Eagles snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the New Orleans Saints in Week 3, just one week after snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against the Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers lost at home as 6-point favorites to the Denver Broncos one week after beating the Detroit Lions outright, on the road, as 7-point 'dogs. These are two peculiar 2-1 teams.
With that said, the injury arrows are pointed in dramatically different directions here. The Eagles' two star wideouts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, both sat out practices Wednesday and Thursday, and I suspect neither plays Sunday. WR3 Britain Covey, who had increased volume in Brown's absence, was just put on IR because of a broken scapula. That would leave trade acquisition Jahan Dotson, who has done next to nothing as a receiver so far this season, as WR1, with rookie Johnny Wilson and veteran Parris Campbell behind him. That's an extremely rough WR room to bring to Tampa Bay. But it gets worse. Franchise right tackle Lane Johnson is in the concussion protocol and might sit out Sunday's game.
On the other sideline, the Bucs are getting healthier. Right tackle Luke Goedeke looks as if he's on pace to play as he progresses through concussion protocol. Defensive tackle Vita Vea was a full participant in practice Thursday despite his recent knee injury, and the expectation is that he goes as well. The potential return of Vea is enormous. Vea is one of the league's preeminent run stuffers and, given the absence of strong pass-catching options, the Eagles figure to be extremely run heavy Sunday. If Vea goes, the Eagles cannot win with a one-dimensional approach on the ground. Vea is too great a force on the interior, especially for an undersized center such as Cam Jurgens.
The Bucs will still be missing some defensive personnel (Calijah Kancey and Antoine Winfield Jr. are both expected to sit out the game), but I have a lot of faith in Todd Bowles against Jalen Hurts. Bowles was one of the original authors of the anti-Hurts game plan a few years ago, adding additional bodies to the box to stop QB runs, blitzing him with the intent to force him to roll out and challenging him to make throws on the move. In four games against Bowles, Hurts is 1-3, and there isn't a metric that looks good for him.
As of Thursday afternoon, no props have been posted for Hurts or any Eagles player, as we still need official word on the availability of Brown and Smith. But I'm confident taking the under at 21.5 for Eagles' total points. Even if they're moving the ball effectively on offense, I have to imagine it's with a heavy dose of runs and quick passes, and that means long drives that are difficult to sustain.
The bet: Eagles team total UNDER 21.5 points (-115)
We don't need Eagles lines to find a likable prop for this game: I'm expecting a big afternoon from Bucs WR Chris Godwin. Godwin has moved back to the slot this season after last year's foray to the outside. Forty-seven percent of his routes and 68% of his targets have come from the slot, both career-high marks.
The Eagles struggled mightily with slot receivers last season and had another tough outing in Week 1 against the Packers' Jayden Reed, surrendering four catches on six targets for 138 yards. In Weeks 2 and 3, they didn't really face a wide receiver who lives in the slot, as both the Falcons and Saints use two-wide-receiver sets and condensed formations. Against the Buccaneers and Godwin, it won't be so easy to hide nickel cornerback Avonte Maddox.
Godwin has seen at least eight targets in all three of the Bucs' games, so we should expect his volume to be script-proof. He'll get downfield targets if Baker Mayfield has time in the pocket, but we've seen the Buccaneers give him screens and quick-breaking routes when they're worried about the pass rush. It should be a highly productive day for Godwin, even if the Eagles' defensive line repeats its Week 3 performance.
The bet: Chris Godwin over 59.5 receiving yards (-140)
Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)
Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 50+ receiving yards (-110)
I'm excited for Seahawks-Lions on Monday night (8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+), as it should prove a litmus test for a Seahawks team that I reckon is a legit NFC playoff team. Geno Smith tends to spin it well against man coverage, which the Lions are running at the fifth-highest clip this season. Though rookie CB Terrion Arnold and veteran CB Carlton Davis III have made life a little tougher for outside receivers, slots continue to have success against Amik Robertson, whom the Lions are playing in the nickel over Brian Branch, who is in a more traditional safety role this season. Godwin and Michael Wilson both had big games against the Lions, and I expect much of the same for Smith-Njigba.
New York Jets RB Breece Hall OVER 29.5 receiving yards (+100)
I love this spot for Hall. The Broncos are running more man coverage than any team in the league this season, and while most backs are better receivers against zone than man, the Jets are willing to line up Hall out of the backfield and throw to him against backers. Alex Singleton, the Broncos' top linebacker, was just put on season-ending IR as well. With Pat Surtain II battling Garrett Wilson, I expect another game of the ball coming out fast to Hall with plenty of room to run after the catch.
Saints at Falcons UNDER 42.5 total points (-115)
We know for sure three starting offensive linemen are out for this game (Falcons C Drew Dalman, Falcons RT Kaleb McGary, Saints C Erik McCoy), and it looks as if a fourth (Saints RG Cesar Ruiz) might sit out as well. Bad O-line play in a game with the second- and fifth-most run heavy offenses in the league by run rate over expectation? Definitely feels like an under. My main worry: turnovers and short fields. Don't be surprised if Chase Young and Carl Granderson, the unheralded but productive pass-rush duo in New Orleans, get the ball out of Cousins' hands in the pocket.
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love OVER 22.5 completions (+105)
Happy to potentially see Love back in the lineup for a suddenly crucial game in the NFC North between the Packers and the 3-0 Minnesota Vikings. Brian Flores' defense has been all the rage over the past few weeks, and rightfully so, but it does surrender easy completions by design, as offenses look to throw screens and quick passes to get the drop on all of those defenders sprinting hither and thither. Of the 18 quarterbacks to play Flores' defense since the start of 2023, 14 have gone over their listed completion prop. Love did it twice, with 24 completions each time. I expect a passing game script all the way through for Green Bay, so volume should be there.
SGP (risking 0.2 units): Over 20.5 Carolina Panthers points, Miles Sanders 15+ receiving yards, Chuba Hubbard 60+ rushing yards (+600)
We missed a Panthers parlay by 12 feet last week, but we're back to the well -- and fading the Bengals' defense while we're here. The Bengals give up a ton of receiving production to backs, and Andy Dalton loves to target running backs. It was receiving day last week for Hubbard, but Sanders actually ran more routes than Hubbard and is used as the third-down and two-minute back. Meanwhile, this Panthers offensive line is strong going downhill, and the Bengals' defensive line cannot win at the point of attack.