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College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 12

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Is Texas out of the CFP conversation after loss to Georgia? (1:14)

Heather Dinich and Paul Finebaum detail why Texas still has a path to the College Football Playoff despite three losses. (1:14)

The most meaningful result in terms of the College Football Playoff in Week 12 was Oklahoma's upset win at Alabama, leaving both teams at 8-2 on the season.

The win pushes the Sooners firmly into the mix for the CFP, while the Crimson Tide have lost their grip on a top-four seed -- at least for the time being. It also creates an interesting dynamic among those two teams and Notre Dame as we try to figure out how those two-loss teams fit in the postseason mix.

The weekend's results also create a chain reaction beyond the CFP and throughout the bowl lineup.

As with last season's inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami's Hard Rock Stadium.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.

We're here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we'll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.

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Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN

Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT

Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas Tech

Bonagura: No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss

Bonagura: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: Welcome to the party, Oklahoma. The Sooners climbed to No. 11 in the committee's rankings last week, and with its win at Alabama, they will likely climb into one of the projected playoff spots when the updated rankings are revealed Tuesday. With games against Missouri and LSU left on the schedule, there are two potential pitfalls, but the Sooners will be favored in both games, putting them on course for the playoff.

One thing to keep an eye on this week will be where Alabama falls. Georgia will be the top-ranked one-loss team, which makes Alabama's win over the Bulldogs the best win in college football this season. The head-to-head logic says Alabama will be behind Oklahoma, but as these comparisons become more circular in terms of who has beaten whom, it's harder to project.

We'll also see a new Group of 5 team in the playoff mix again this week after South Florida lost at Navy. Will it be North Texas? Or will James Madison make an appearance, representing the Sun Belt?

Schlabach: There are only two weeks left in the regular season, but there is still so much that needs to shake out in terms of the CFP bracket. After Texas A&M's incredible come-from-behind win against South Carolina, and Georgia's dominant victory against Texas, I have five SEC teams in my bracket. I'm not sure it will stay that way.

I left Alabama in the field after it lost for the second time, falling 23-21 to Oklahoma at home. The Crimson Tide still have to play Auburn in the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare Stadium, where strange things seem to happen in the fierce rivalry, especially when you can't figure out how to run the ball, as has been the case with Alabama.

The Sooners play Missouri and LSU at home to close the regular season. If they win both of those contests, they'll probably be in the playoff field. The same goes for Ole Miss, which has one game left, against Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Nov. 28.

Georgia is finished with SEC play and hosts Charlotte on Saturday before facing Georgia Tech in Atlanta on Black Friday. Texas A&M plays FCS program Samford at home and closes at Texas on Nov. 28. The Aggies are probably in the field as long as they somehow don't lose both.

And what about Vanderbilt? The Commodores can finish 10-2 if they beat Kentucky at home Saturday and Tennessee on the road Nov. 29.


CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Texas A&M

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: The most interesting quarterfinal matchup in my pairings might be Georgia vs. Texas Tech. The Red Raiders' only loss came without starting quarterback Behren Morton, and they've been dominant in every other game. And after Georgia dominated Texas over the weekend -- which should effectively remove the Longhorns from CFP consideration -- both the Bulldogs and Red Raiders look like teams that can win the whole thing.

Oregon also looked good Friday night in a blowout of Minnesota. Quarterback Dante Moore played what might have been his best game of the season (27-of-30 for 306 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs), and if can replicate that level in the playoff, the Ducks are also a threat to go the distance, even if there is a rematch with Indiana to navigate.

Schlabach: My top three seeds remained unchanged, and Georgia replaced Alabama as the fourth seed, even though the Crimson Tide ended the Bulldogs' 33-game home winning streak with a 24-21 victory at Sanford Stadium on Sept. 27.

Once again, the Bulldogs seem to be peaking at the right time. Georgia's defense has been getting better every week, and it limited the Longhorns to 23 rushing yards and sacked quarterback Arch Manning three times Saturday. Georgia's offense is hitting on all cylinders with quarterback Gunner Stockton leading the way.

The Rose Bowl committee would be frothing at the mouth over a Notre Dame-Ohio State contest, and Oregon-Texas A&M would feature two of the more dynamic quarterbacks in the FBS in Dante Moore and Marcel Reed.


CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: Last week, it was Indiana that rescued its undefeated season with a miraculous late comeback. This week, it was Texas A&M's turn. After trailing 30-3 at halftime to South Carolina, the Aggies managed to escape with a 31-30 win. Both of those games came against teams near the bottom of their league standings, showing both Indiana and Texas A&M have exploitable flaws. But maybe they'll just serve as wake-up calls.

Meanwhile, Ohio State keeps humming along having not played a competitive game since Aug. 30. The Buckeyes are the clear favorite to win it all. That is not really up for debate.

Schlabach: I'm going to roll with Ohio State as the top seed, especially with the way its defense continues to dominate Big Ten opponents. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin are probably the top two Heisman Trophy favorites.

I had Georgia sneaking past Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl. It would be a black-and-blue affair between the Bulldogs' massive offensive line and the Red Raiders' menacing defensive front.

Texas A&M showed a lot of heart in coming back from a 27-point deficit in the second half, but I'm not sure the Aggies are good enough on defense to slow down the Hoosiers.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. Delaware State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Arizona vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Washington vs. San Diego State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Arkansas State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Old Dominion

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Marshall vs. Troy
Schlabach: Marshall vs. East Carolina

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Tulane vs. NC State
Schlabach: UConn vs. Florida State

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Toledo vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Ohio vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. Miami (Ohio)

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UTSA vs. Hawai'i
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Louisiana Tech

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Boise State vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai'i vs. California

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Rutgers vs. Western Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: TCU vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Northwestern

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Texas State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Boise State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Duke vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Illinois

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: Clemson vs. South Florida

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Miami vs. Houston
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. BYU

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network

Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. Georgia Southern

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC

Bonagura: Virginia vs. LSU
Schlabach: Miami vs. Texas

Kinder's Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Kentucky

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Florida State vs. James Madison
Schlabach: NC State vs. James Madison

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Baylor vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Western Kentucky

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Houston vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Illinois vs. Texas
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: TCU vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Memphis

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Washington
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona State