TUSCALOOSA, Ala. -- Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia boldly predicted earlier this week that if the No. 16 Commodores played their game, their road trip to No. 10 Alabama on Saturday "wouldn't be close."
Pavia wasn't the only one predicting a Vanderbilt victory Saturday. Former Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manizel, Pavia's good friend, said he was looking forward to a "Diego Pavia Vandy beatdown."
Pavia even practiced the victory formation during warmups at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Unfortunately for Pavia, he couldn't replicate his performance from last year's historic upset of the Crimson Tide in Nashville, Tennessee.
Pavia's two red zone turnovers helped Alabama avenge its first loss to Vanderbilt in four decades with a 30-14 victory.
"They told us all week [that] we've got a chip on our shoulder," Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson said. "You know, last year was gone, but it's never forgotten."
Simpson completed 23 of 31 passes for 340 yards with two touchdowns, as the Crimson Tide came away with points in each of its four trips inside the red zone.
That wasn't the case for the Commodores, who grabbed an early 7-0 lead on Sedrick Alexander's 65-yard touchdown run with 6:34 to go in the first quarter. Later in the quarter, Vanderbilt had a third-and-10 play at Alabama's 13. Pavia scrambled up the middle for five yards, but linebacker Justin Jefferson caused him to fumble. Nose tackle Tim Keenan III recovered the ball at the 8.
"We're going to make mistakes," Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea said. "Obviously, in a game like today, those mistakes become critical errors. We've got to protect the ball down there. We've got to come away with points."
It would get worse for the Commodores. After the Crimson Tide took a 20-14 lead on Conor Talty's 30-yard field goal late in the third quarter, Vanderbilt drove inside the Tide's 20-yard line again. On first-and-10 at the 17, Pavia forced a throw to tight end Eli Stowers, and safety Keon Sabb intercepted his pass at the 7-yard line.
"There's going to be some good, and obviously some plays we want back," Lea said. "I just told Diego in the locker room, 'There's no one else I want playing quarterback and taking snaps.'
"The fumble, we're going to look at the ball security element of that. He's extending the play, and I believe the defender came from the blind side, where he was able to get his hand on the ball. The throw, you know, to me felt a little forced. You know, trying to make a play, pressing to make a play."
Pavia completed 21 of 36 passes for 198 yards with one touchdown and an interception. He ran 12 times for 58 yards, 36 of which came on one carry.
After gaining 113 yards on the ground in the first quarter, the Commodores had only 22 in the final three.
"Offensively, we just seemed to never get rhythm, especially in the second half," Lea said. "So, too many three-and-outs and that allowed them to take the time of possession."
The Crimson Tide controlled the ball for nearly 37½ minutes and converted 7 of 15 third downs.
"They won the time of possession, and then I feel like myself, I pressed too hard because I knew that time was limited, and then you can't turn the ball over twice in the red zone and expect to win," Pavia said.
It was a far cry from Vanderbilt's 40-35 win in Nashville last year, in which the Commodores held the ball for more than 42 minutes and converted 12 of 18 third downs.
Alabama's ability to corral Pavia was a big reason why it flipped the script.
"The hardest ones are when he takes off and runs and then still keeps his eyes downfield and you're drawn to him," Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said. "You come off your man, especially in zone, and I know he got a couple of first downs that way. Everyone's just got to contain, that's easier said than done.
"He gets out in space, and they do a good job of moving the pocket, so he's not just sitting back there. They've got enough other threats, and they get rid of it quick. They've got good personnel besides him."
After playing six straight weeks to open the season, the Commodores will finally get an open date. They'll need the rest with a three-game stretch against No. 13 LSU (home), No. 19 Missouri (home) and No. 9 Texas (road) coming up next.
Even after the loss at Alabama, Pavia's still confident the Commodores can stay in the SEC championship mix.
"We've got every single goal that we want in front of us -- that's a national championship," Pavia said. "Alabama has a loss. We have a loss. A lot of people in the SEC have a loss. We've just got to win out.
"We've just got to get back to our identity and who we are. I think Alabama beat us how we beat them last year. They controlled the ball, and they did those little things right."