The 12-team College Football Playoff has significantly broadened the pool of candidates to include any team that has a chance to win its conference -- and that makes every FBS race matter longer, as the selection committee's five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Heading into the final Saturday of September, the shifting continues as conference races are just beginning to heat up.
Below you'll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We've also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week's top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee's ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff -- for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn't always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group's tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds -- or busts -- its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: Ole Miss. The Rebels gained serious top-12 consideration this week after a 4-0 start that included back-to-back wins against SEC opponents (Kentucky and Arkansas) and a 45-10 drubbing of a talented Tulane team. Ole Miss is No. 7 in ESPN's strength of record metric, which means the average top-25 team would have a 47.7% chance to achieve the same record against the same opponents. The real test, though, is on Saturday when Ole Miss hosts LSU (3:30 p.m., ABC). If the Rebels win, they should be undefeated heading into back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma. Those are the most difficult games on the schedule. If the Rebels can go 2-1 against those three opponents, they'd almost certainly be in. ESPN's FPI gives Ole Miss a 67% chance to reach the playoff.
The enigma: Texas. The Longhorns dropped out of the top 12 this week because Texas Tech moved in. That doesn't mean Texas isn't a playoff team -- it just hasn't proved it yet with wins against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston. The SEC season opener at Florida on Oct. 4 is also a strange one, as it's a game the Longhorns could lose but shouldn't if they are a real playoff team. They've got a bye week to prepare for it. A Texas win won't do much to reassert its place in the national picture, but a loss would be telling. The most likely outcome is the selection committee will learn more about Texas on Oct. 11 against rival Oklahoma, which is in the projected top 12 this week.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Work to do: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: Indiana. No team saw its playoff chances increase more this week than Indiana, which jumped 28% and now has a 57% chance to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Saturday's historic beatdown of the Illini pushed the Hoosiers to No. 11 in the latest projection, but that means they would be excluded from the field during the seeding process. IU would get bumped out to make room for Memphis, the projected winner of the American and fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. Because Memphis is currently projected outside of the committee's top 12 -- and projected Big 12 winner Texas Tech is currently in the No. 12 spot -- the committee's No. 11 team is the one that gets bounced. If the Hoosiers continue to dominate, though, they will likely climb to a safer spot within the top 10. Indiana has a tougher playoff path this year than last, as it travels to both Oregon and Penn State. ESPN's FPI gives the Hoosiers less than a 50% chance to beat the Ducks but projects them to beat Penn State.
The enigma: Michigan. The true identity of this team -- whether it's been with interim head coach Biff Poggi or head coach Sherrone Moore -- remains a mystery. The Wolverines continue to develop along with freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has rebounded since the Week 2 loss at Oklahoma. Michigan found a way to win at Nebraska, the defense for the most part has been above average, and the Wolverines don't have to play Penn State or Oregon. With the exception of the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, Michigan's toughest game will be on Oct. 11 at USC. The Wolverines most likely need to at least split with those opponents to avoid a third loss. If Michigan can do that and finish as a two-loss team, the selection committee would give the Wolverines serious consideration for a top-12 spot. The question is how many other two-loss teams would be out there -- and how their résumés would stack up.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State
Work to do: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Maryland, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (12.2%), according to ESPN Analytics, behind Florida State and Miami. Georgia Tech doesn't face either of those teams during the regular season -- which is why the Jackets might not lose until the regular-season finale against rival Georgia. And they took the Bulldogs to eight overtimes last year in one of the wildest games of the season. If the Jackets finish as a one-loss team with a close loss to Georgia, they'd be in the ACC title game. Florida State and Miami play each other, so one of them has a guaranteed league loss. Georgia Tech would be a lock with an ACC title, but what if it loses, with its only two losses coming to two conference champions -- Georgia and whoever wins the ACC? The committee would have a significant debate about this, and it would depend on how the game unfolded and how many other two-loss teams were out there. It's hard to imagine the committee excluding the ACC runner-up in that scenario, which means the league could get three teams in.
The enigma: Syracuse. That's right, the Syracuse team that beat Clemson. On the road. With its backup quarterback finishing the game. Are these guys for real? Their lone loss was to a Tennessee team that remains in the committee's projected top 12. The wins, though, leave something to prove before Syracuse is taken seriously as a contender in the ACC, let alone the CFP. The Orange needed overtime to beat UConn, and the committee will look right over a 66-24 win against Colgate. It's going to get more difficult, as the Orange will face Georgia Tech and have back-to-back November road trips to Miami and Notre Dame, with a bye week in between. And if Syracuse is going to keep winning, it's going to have to do it with backup quarterback Rickie Collins, an LSU transfer. ESPN's FPI gives the Orange less than a 50% chance to win each of those games and the Oct. 4 trip to SMU.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Florida State, Miami
Work to do: Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest
Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, SMU, Stanford, Virginia Tech
Big 12
Spotlight: Iowa State. The Cyclones are still hanging around at 4-0, but Texas Tech has eclipsed them as the team to beat in the Big 12 after Saturday's win at Utah. The Red Raiders now have the best chance to win the league (28.6%), while Iowa State's chances of even reaching the game are now seventh best at 13%. The Cyclones' best win is against rival Iowa, as the season-opening win against K-State in Dublin has been diminished by the Wildcats' 1-3 start. Iowa State had a bye week to prepare for Saturday's home game against Arizona, which could be more difficult than it might seem. The key stretch for the Cyclones, though, starts on Oct. 25 against BYU, followed by Arizona State and a Nov. 8 trip to TCU.
The enigma: TCU. Just how good is this Horned Frogs team? The season-opening win at North Carolina caught the nation's attention for all the wrong reasons -- the focus was on Bill Belichick's first loss as a college coach, not the Frogs' road win. The 35-24 win against SMU was more impressive, even though it was at home, as it was against the best competition to date and the last scheduled game between the former Southwest Conference rivals. Coach Sonny Dykes has engineered the Frogs to a miracle playoff berth before. Can he do it again? According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, TCU has the third-best chance in the Big 12 to reach the CFP (17.6%). If the Frogs don't clinch a spot with a Big 12 title, it's going to be tough to win a debate over other contenders if they finish with two losses.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Colorado
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish got their first win on Saturday against Purdue and earned some style points in the process, beating the Boilermakers 56-30. They did exactly what they needed to following an 0-2 start. Now they have to do it nine more times. Even with a 10-2 finish, an at-large bid isn't a guarantee. It depends on how many other 10-2 teams the committee has to consider, what their résumés are -- and what those two losses look like. If nothing else, Notre Dame might finish with two of the best losses in the country.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. The Tigers jumped into the top G5 spot following their 32-31 win against Arkansas on Saturday. Memphis edged South Florida for lead contender status for a playoff bid as one of the five projected highest-ranked conference champions. Memphis rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat Arkansas, its fourth straight home win against an SEC opponent. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Memphis has a 36% chance to reach the playoff, the best among Group of 5 schools. The American has a 73% chance to send a team to the CFP, as four of the six Group of 5 teams with at least a 5% chance come from that conference (Memphis, North Texas, South Florida and Tulane). Speaking of North Texas ...
The enigma: North Texas. Meet the Mean Green, an undefeated team that has wins against Washington State and Army. It took overtime to beat both Army and Western Michigan on the road, but North Texas dismantled Washington State 59-10. South Florida and Navy are the two toughest opponents remaining, but North Texas doesn't currently have any top-25 teams on its schedule. According to ESPN Analytics, it has the second-best chance to win the American (21.5%) behind Memphis (42.7%). Those teams don't play each other during the regular season.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Miami