The Florida Gators opened the season 1-2, including blowout home losses to Miami and Texas A&M. Fan discontent was at an all-time high. So was speculation about coach Billy Napier and his future with the program. After the 33-20 loss to A&M on Sept. 14, it felt as if it was only a matter of time before the Gators made a coaching change.
Eight weeks later, Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin posted an announcement across social media.
Billy Napier will continue as the Gators head coach.
Florida has shown improvement, but its bowl prospects are far from certain. The Gators enter the final stretch of the season at 4-4, with games remaining against Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State. To date, Napier is 15-18 as Florida coach.
So what prompted the announcement Thursday? Andrea Adelson, Max Olson and Eli Lederman weigh in on the decision to bring Napier back for a fourth season.
Why the move to bring him back?
Even after Florida started as poorly as it did, there were those inside the Gators athletic department who wanted to see how the rest of the season would shake out before making any decisions about the program's future. Stricklin and interim president Kent Fuchs, who hired both the AD and Napier, have wanted to play the long game with football. No decision there is made without support from their boosters.
Napier told ESPN in August: "You've got to deal with the outside noise, but you know the administration, you understand the heavy hitters, the big investors, they're fully behind you. They're helping you solve problems. They're invested in your team."
According to multiple people familiar with the program, the belief is that Florida cannot keep hiring and firing coaches every three or four years because it will only keep setting the program back. To them, stability is important, and being patient through the rough parts of Napier's overhaul would be worth it in the end.
Stricklin also noted in his announcement that the Gators have played better since that opening 1-2 stretch. While nobody at Florida is into moral victories, having leads on Tennessee and Georgia before losing close games shows progress from the way the season opened.
The timing is interesting because there are tough games remaining. But because Florida feels strongly about Napier returning, the program needed to end the rampant speculation now. Much of that plays into recruiting, NIL and the transfer portal. Though the portal does not open until next month, multiple sources have indicated third parties and intermediaries are already reaching out to players across the country to begin to set the market.
Florida feels good about its young talent. If a change was made at head coach, what happens to all that young talent? Particularly QB DJ Lagway, whom the Gators need to keep building around moving forward. Stricklin noted the need for a "disciplined, stable approach that is focused on long-term, sustained success." In their view, keeping Napier is the most stable approach. -- Andrea Adelson
What is the state of the team and program?
Florida has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, with games against top-25 teams Miami, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Georgia, and with more to come against Texas, LSU and Ole Miss. There have been tangible improvements from Week 1, a 41-17 loss to Miami, to last week, a 34-20 loss to Georgia -- a game that was tied with 5 minutes remaining.
The Gators love what they have seen from Lagway, who has lived up to the outsized expectations as a true freshman. Lagway knew coming into Florida he would be splitting time with veteran Graham Mertz, but he has shown command in the games he has started with Mertz out for the season. In a 48-20 win over Kentucky, Lagway threw for 259 yards and a score, and added 46 yards rushing. The importance of that game should not be underestimated. Florida had lost three straight to the Wildcats.
Then against Georgia last week, Florida had an early 10-3 lead before Lagway left the game with a hamstring injury. Napier believes in the young talent on the roster -- from freshman running back Jadan Baugh to receivers Eugene Wilson III (sophomore) and Aidan Mizell (freshman). The defense has shown vast improvement, too, behind a young group of players from Grayson Howard to Sharif Denson and Aaron Gates.
The way the Gators have played since a 45-28 win at Mississippi State shows the team has not quit or given up on Napier. With a strong core of young players, there is plenty to build on, and keeping Napier gives them a chance to retain them for another season. -- Adelson
Should Napier adjust his portal plan?
I'm not shocked that Florida is backing Napier for another year, because we've seen a similar approach get results at Arkansas and Baylor this season. Those programs supported their hot-seat coaches by investing in the portal to upgrade their rosters. Now both teams are heading toward bowl eligibility, and their coaches look like they'll be back in 2025.
The expectations at Florida are different, no doubt, but the thinking may be the same: Fund the collective, not the buyout.
Florida's leadership would've had to pay Napier about $13 million within 30 days of his termination. This offseason, if they want to give Napier a real chance, they'll need to invest that kind of money into player retention and acquisition.
Stricklin had to expect that a coaching change would result in the Gators' roster getting raided. They would've been in danger of losing a lot more than Lagway. Their SEC peers have already done advanced scouting on Florida's talent and who they would pursue if possible.
The Gators picked up 16 scholarship transfers in last year's portal cycle and found some solid starters in wide receivers Chimere Dike and Elijhah Badger, right tackle Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson and linebacker Grayson Howard. I'd expect them to be more competitive for top talent in the portal this offseason. -- Max Olson
What are the biggest needs for next season?
Step one: Keep the best players on the roster. Lagway, Baugh and Mizell are just a few of their many promising young offensive playmakers to build around. Only two of their 11 defensive starters against Georgia were seniors.
Napier needs to get these guys locked down in the next four weeks before the transfer portal opens on Dec. 9. By not making a change, Stricklin is betting on the trajectory of the young talent in the program and on Napier's ability to keep them in the building. As long as Lagway is coming back, the December portal period should not be a disastrous one for the Gators.
They'll likely look to add a difference-maker at wide receiver for Lagway with Dike and Badger graduating and Eugene Wilson III coming off season-ending hip surgery. Four of five starters on the offensive line could potentially return next season. Achieving some continuity there while adding more help would be a big plus for improving in 2025.
On defense, defensive tackle could be an offseason need if the Gators think proven veterans are needed to help replace seniors Cam Jackson and Desmond Watson. Safety is another obvious position to point to, one they tried to resolve via the portal this season with senior transfers Trikweze Bridges, DJ Douglas and Asa Turner.
But it'll be fascinating to see if the Gators are looking to go all-in on the portal in December, regardless of who's coming back. They got a good look at what a difference that makes when they played Miami. If you're willing to spend big on boosting talent and depth across the entire two-deep -- and have a transformational QB to build it all around -- you can rapidly and dramatically change your fortunes. -- Olson
How well has Napier done in recruiting?
Napier's classes have finished 32nd, 12th and 10th since he arrived to Florida in late 2021, and the young talent the Gators have brought in over the past two cycles in particular is one of the strongest arguments for keeping Napier in Gainesville beyond this season.
Between defensive backs Jordan Castell, Devin Moore, Dijon Johnson and Aaron Gates, there were four members of Florida's 2023 class -- signed at the end of Napier's first full cycle with the program -- in the Gators' starting lineup on defense against Georgia in Week 10. All four project as key members of the Florida secondary in 2025, while defensive ends T.J. Searcy and Kamran James, linebacker Jaden Robinson and Sharif Denson lead a handful of other 2023 signees making contributions with the Gators' defense this fall.
On offense, Wilson and Mizell -- Florida's top-two skill position signees in 2023 -- rank among the program's brightest young offensive talents. Up front, only two Gators offensive linemen have played more snaps this fall than sophomore guard Knijeah Harris, the 10th-ranked member of Napier's 2023 class.
The poise and promise Lagway has shown across eight games this fall have been enough to justify his five-star billing as the crown jewel in Florida's 2024 class. And with former five-star defensive end LJ McCray and first-year linebackers Aaron Chiles and Myles Graham, Florida has several more budding talents who will begin contributing on a promising defense by next fall.
The uncertainty over Napier's future had weighed down the Gators' 2025 recruiting efforts, and Florida holds only 11 commitments with less than four weeks remaining before the early signing period. However, with Napier's job status settled for now, expect Florida to make a hard charge in the closing stages of the 2025 cycle. -- Eli Lederman
What targets remain before early signing day?
As of Thursday, the Gators' incoming class sits at No. 39 in ESPN's class rankings for the 2025 cycle with just five commitments from within the 2025 ESPN 300. But Florida's decision to stand by Napier provides staff security and could set the Gators up for a busy final month before the early signing period opens on Dec. 4.
Florida is working to flip four-star Florida State quarterback commit Tramell Jones Jr., ESPN's No. 9 dual-threat passer in the cycle as well as two other 2025 Florida State pledges -- five-star offensive tackle Solomon Thomas and three-star offensive guard Daniel Pierre Louis.
The list of other potential flip targets for the Gators is long but includes No. 1 inside linebacker Ty Jackson (USC), offensive tackle Tavaris Dice (Auburn), wide receiver Donovan Olugbode (Missouri), defensive tackles Malik Autry (Auburn) and Myron Charles (Texas) and Syracuse safety commit Demetres Samuel. Florida also remains heavily in the mix to pull four-star defensive tackle Joseph Mbatchou back into its 2025 class after ESPN's No. 254 overall prospect decommitted last month. -- Lederman