College football's caste system is distinct and uncompromising. Half of this year's playoff field knows exactly where it stands.
Alabama is at the top, an elite program both historically (862 victories, 15 national championships, 25 SEC titles) and recently (three national titles, four SEC titles since 2009). Oklahoma also owns elite status with seven national titles since 1950, 861 wins and 45 conference crowns. The Sooners haven't won a national championship since 2000, but they've played for the title three times since and posted four top-10 finishes since 2007.
The other playoff participants, Clemson and Michigan State, are tougher to label elite. Both programs own national titles, but not recently (Clemson's last was in 1981, Michigan State's in 1966). Both regularly record 10-win seasons and, recently, victories against the unquestioned elite. Urban Meyer has lost four games in four seasons as Ohio State's coach; three came against Michigan State or Clemson.
But few would categorize Clemson and Michigan State in the same way as Alabama and Oklahoma. If they did, they would have to think about it first.
"I don't think they're elites yet, but they're both headed in the right direction," said Tommy Bowden, who coached Clemson from 1999-2008 and now serves as an ACC Network analyst. "Clemson and Michigan State can both be there. If there's seven steps, they've got five-and-a-half or six of them done."
What defines elite status, and how close are Clemson and Michigan State to achieving it? Here's how the programs measure up in four key categories.
Recruiting
Elite programs are built on the ability to attract top recruits annually. Star ratings and class rankings don't guarantee championships, as blue-chippers bust and talent slips through the cracks. But the top programs have to compete and win on the trail.
"It's the most important thing," Bowden said.
Clemson: Although the Tigers haven't competed for national titles on Mondays in January, they have regularly been in the national discussion on the first Wednesday in February. Coach Dabo Swinney's past five recruiting classes have ranked fourth, 12th, 13th, 10th and eighth nationally by ESPN Recruiting. The 2016 class currently ranks 17th and should rise in the coming weeks.
"When I was at Clemson, the first three years we had one guy drafted," Bowden said. "They have eight or nine a year now. They've definitely elevated the level of talent. You can check that box for them."
The Tigers' talent propelled them this season. They lost seven players from the 2014 defense that opened this season on NFL rosters. They have started five first-year starters along the offensive line for much of the season.
"Clemson's different today than when I was first at Wake," said Jim Grobe, who coached Wake Forest from 2001 to 2013. "Their depth has improved so much that they're able to overcome injuries."
Michigan State: The Spartans are known as an elite player development program but not an elite recruiting operation. MSU has shown you can win big without necessarily winning signing day. Coach Mark Dantonio has taken lightly recruited prospects, such as cornerbacks Darqueze Dennard and Trae Waynes, and turned them into first-round draft picks. Big Ten Network analyst Gerry DiNardo, the former coach at Indiana, LSU and Vanderbilt, remembers an early Dantonio recruiting class consisting almost entirely of players from Michigan. The reason: Dantonio wanted as much in-person scouting as possible.
None of Michigan State's past five recruiting classes finished in ESPN Recruiting's Top 25. The past two classes ranked No. 29. The 2016 class currents stands at No. 18 and could vault into the top 15 by signing day. After 36 wins, two Big Ten titles and two major bowl victories in the past three seasons, MSU is attracting a higher-caliber recruit.
"They found their niche to get it going," DiNardo said. "Now their niche to continue to be in the elite conversation is to show up high in the [rankings] the first Wednesday in February."
Administrative support
Great coaching and historical success aren't enough to sustain or obtain elite status. Programs need administrative support, especially strong athletic directors, as well as outside support to keep pace in facilities, coach salaries and other areas.
"It's a great marriage between certainly the coach, the athletic director and maybe most importantly the president," said Rick Neuheisel, the former coach at UCLA, Washington and Colorado. "We all have a clear understanding of what we want and how to achieve it, and then are willing to go out and finance the expectations we've created for ourselves. That doesn't guarantee success, but it gives you your best possible chance for success."
Clemson: Bowden remembers the metal lockers at Clemson when he arrived. He soon pushed the university for facilities upgrades. Clemson built new locker rooms and offices in 2007, renovated them last year, and built a $10 million indoor practice facility that opened in 2012. Last month, Clemson broke ground on a $55 million complex that will complement football necessities with a miniature golf course, bowling lanes and laser tag, among other luxuries. Athletic director Dan Radakovich, a member of the playoff selection committee, is considered one of the best in the industry.
Clemson recently had the nation's highest-paid assistant coach on staff in former offensive coordinator Chad Morris. Defensive coordinator Brent Venables, who earned just more than $1.4 million this season, is the nation's fifth-highest paid assistant. According to USA Today, Clemson ranks sixth in total staff pay, one spot ahead of Florida State.
"I think Dabo's slogan is, 'All in,'" Grobe said. "That's not just the coaches and the players. That's the university adopting an all-in mentality with everybody committed to winning. All those player-driven facilities help in recruiting. Clemson and Florida State are probably talking about the same things. That gives [Clemson] a chance to be an elite program."
Michigan State: Few university leadership teams are as aligned as Michigan State's, and Dantonio often credits the support he receives from athletic director Mark Hollis and the university's administration. Hollis is considered one of the nation's most innovative and accomplished ADs.
In 2008, before Dantonio's second season, MSU opened the Skandalaris Football Center, an addition to the old football building with new offices and meeting rooms. Michigan State also has expanded its weight room and last year completed a $24 million renovation of Spartan Stadium that included new locker rooms.
MSU doesn't spend nearly as much on its coaching staff as Clemson, but it briefly made Dantonio the nation's second highest-paid coach in 2014. Former defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi was among the 10 highest-paid assistants before leaving to become Pitt's head coach last December.
"The resources at Michigan State have to be close to the resources of any school we are calling elite," DiNardo said. "They don't have to be as good, but they have to be close. So Michigan State has rebuilt their football building. They have built their facilities. Are they the best in the country or the conference? No. But they're in the conversation. That goes to salaries, too."
Recent big-game success
Some historical powers are considered elite because of what they were, not what they are. But any new program seeking admission to college football's elite fraternity must provide recent evidence of winning at the highest level.
"Nick Saban has been the benchmark for every football program out there because he's been able to be in the hunt year in and year out," Neuheisel said. "Winning one [title] is proof that you're among the elite, but competing for them on a regular basis definitely gets you there."
Clemson: Although Swinney won or shared the ACC Atlantic Division title three times in his first four full seasons; he struggled against rivals Florida State and South Carolina. Swinney secured notable bowl wins against Ohio State (2014 Orange) and LSU (2012 Chick-fil-A), but he truly broke through this fall with wins against Notre Dame, Florida State and North Carolina. Clemsoning is dead, and Clemson is starting to show it's a big-game program.
Swinney has seven wins against top-eight teams, including two this season, but No. 4 Oklahoma is the highest-ranked opponent Clemson has faced in a bowl since the 1982 Orange, when it beat Nebraska to secure the national title.
"My father [legendary Florida State coach Bobby Bowden] was good for a long time, but he didn't win [a national title] for 20 some years, and then he did," Bowden said. "He was the guy who couldn't win the big one. Mack Brown was a guy who couldn't win the big one until they won it. Tom Osborne might have been the same."
Michigan State: While Swinney recently has improved his big-game reputation, Dantonio's is infallible. He is 7-1 in his past eight games against top-10 opponents (6-1 since 2013). Dantonio is the first coach in Big Ten history to record five 11-win seasons in a six-year span. His 65 wins since 2010 are third-most nationally behind Saban and Fisher. His teams have recorded 16 fourth-quarter comebacks, including three this season.
Michigan State went from not winning major bowl games or Big Ten titles to doing both in recent years. The Spartans have thrived as underdogs, which they are again against Alabama in Thursday's semifinal.
"A national championship could be one thing that closes the argument," DiNardo said. "We can argue about Michigan State [being elite], but if they win the national championship this year, is the argument over? It might be."
Long-term sustainability
This is the toughest category to assess because it's truly a projection: Could Michigan State and Clemson sustain success without Dantonio and Swinney? Even the established elite programs can backslide with the wrong coaches. The key for those striving for elite status is establishing a strong enough foundation where multiple coaches can win big.
"It's one of the true measures of being elite," DiNardo said.
Clemson: A favorable recruiting location, strong administrative support and improved facilities have Clemson well positioned for the future. But Swinney has become the smiling, dancing, garrulous, pizza party-throwing face of the program this year. There's a fun, familial feeling around the program that isn't easy to foster in big-time college football.
Five Clemson coaches have won ACC titles, and Swinney's successor will step into a more ready-to-win environment than he did. But life after Dabo will be challenging in Death Valley.
"Florida State would be a good indication," Bowden said. "When my father left, Jimbo Fisher came in and won the national championship. If you get the right guy, then the schools that have all the bells and whistles, the support of the administration, finances and all those things, you can keep on going."
Michigan State: In recent weeks, Saban has repeatedly praised Dantonio for doing what he could not at Michigan State, the program he led from 1995-99. Dantonio has systematically built MSU into a Big Ten power, first asserting dominance against in-state rival Michigan, and then taking aim at league bully Ohio State. Although Duffy Daugherty recorded two great seasons in the mid-1960s, Dantonio has ushered MSU into its greatest sustained period of success.
Michigan State is a much better job than when Dantonio arrived, and top coaches would be interested in it. But there would be significant doubt about sustaining this performance without him, at least initially.
"Can someone else come in and do it because the tools clearly are already on those respective campuses? The answer's yes," Neuheisel said. "But ultimately, it's about marrying the concept of championship-caliber performance but also financing that expectation."
The verdict?
Neuheisel says both Clemson and Michigan State are on the cusp of elite status. "They're new to the party," he said. Both have the mix of coaching, support and recent track record. But there's a next step, one that can be made in the next two weeks.
"Ten-win seasons, championships, New Year's Day bowls, there's similar ingredients involved," Bowden said. "To have elite status, there's several pieces to the puzzle, but the crowing jewel is the national championship.
"That's what separates you from the rest."