The SEC has claimed seven straight national championships, and expectations are high that the conference will be in position to extend that streak in 2013. Our Football Outsiders projections agree. One of the fundamental factors that determine our annual forecasts is each team's program rating, a five-year performance evaluation that has a strong correlation to next-year success.
Five SEC teams currently rank among the top 12 in Program FEI -- Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina -- and a sixth team, Texas A&M, surged into the program FEI top 20 after an outstanding season last fall. The eventual SEC champion will almost certainly find itself at or near the top of the BCS standings at year's end, and each of these teams may be considered a good candidate to play for the championship with either an undefeated or one-loss record. According to our FEI projections, the Alabama Crimson Tide outpace all other FBS teams with a 37 percent chance of going undefeated and a 78 percent chance of finishing the year with one or fewer losses.
All media eyes are on the SEC this week, but which programs outside of that conference are best positioned to threaten the SEC's dominant reign? We ranked the six non-SEC teams with the best projected odds to make the BCS title game this season.
1. Oregon Ducks
FEI projection: No. 2
Undefeated likelihood: 30 percent
With a new head coach and some key pieces to replace on defense, Oregon has a few question marks heading into the 2013 season. But dominant performances over the past several seasons suggest the Ducks can pick up right where they left off. Quarterback Marcus Mariota was exceptionally efficient last season (68.5 percent completions, 32 TDs, 6 INTs) and chipped in another 752 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. The Ducks have ranked among the top 10 in FBS scoring offense in each of the past five years, but the secret to their elite success is how efficient they have played on both sides of the ball.
The Ducks gave up only 1.4 points per opponent drive last year, the 14th-best mark in the country. They were even better on value drive opportunities, defined as possessions that start on one side of the 50-yard line and move into scoring range by crossing the opponent's 30-yard line. Oregon has ranked no worse than No. 3 in net points per value drive for four straight seasons.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
FEI projection: No. 9
Undefeated likelihood: 16 percent
Ohio State went undefeated last year, but was ineligible for the postseason due to NCAA sanctions. The Buckeyes will be hungry to make up for that lost opportunity in 2013, and there are few opponents standing in their way of another undefeated run. Ohio State projects to have the 90th-toughest schedule according to FEI this fall, easier than any other projected top-15 team and significantly easier than its 60th-ranked schedule from a year ago. The Buckeyes rank fourth among all FBS teams in terms of likelihood to go undefeated.
The only thing that may stand in the way for Ohio State is its own efficiency. The Buckeyes went three-and-out or worse on 34 percent of their offensive possessions last season, a higher percentage than 69 other teams and a far cry from the ultra-efficient championship teams Urban Meyer led at Florida. The Buckeyes' defense was less than elite in several areas, as well, including opponent explosiveness. Ohio State opponents averaged at least 10 yards per play on 14 percent of their possessions, ranking the Buckeyes 68th in that category nationally.
3. Stanford Cardinal
FEI projection: No. 3
Undefeated likelihood: 11 percent
Stanford has won 34 FBS games in the past three seasons, second most behind only Boise State in that span. The program has consistently found ways to replace starters to graduation and develop productive players to fill the void. The top three producers of all-purpose yards from last season are gone this fall, but Stanford's experience and strength along the offensive and defensive lines are the critical units that will lead another championship-caliber team.
Another key to success in 2013 is Stanford's ability to manage field position and give itself more scoring opportunities than its opponents as a result. The Cardinal won the field-position battle in 11 of 14 games last year and forced opponents to start 27 percent of their drives from inside their own 20-yard line, the 10th-best rate nationally. Stanford went 7-2 in games decided by a single score in 2012, and field position can be the key to repeating that kind of success this fall.
4. Texas Longhorns
FEI projection: No. 4
Undefeated likelihood: 5 percent
The Longhorns played in the BCS Championship Game back in 2009, but the past three seasons of underwhelming performances make that title run feel like a distant memory. Texas has been improving incrementally after the initial drop-off, but the talent Mack Brown has amassed (No. 3 in our five-year weighted measure of recruiting success) suggests a big leap forward may be in store this season. Texas returns 18 starters this fall, more than any other projected top-25 team. That's good timing, since Big 12 contenders from last season like Kansas State and Oklahoma are expected to take a bit of a step back. The only way Texas' potential will be realized this fall is if the defense plays like a contender every series.
The high-powered Big 12 offenses skew the traditional stats a bit, but even adjusted for defensive strength of schedule (Texas ranked fourth nationally in this category in 2012), the results must improve. Texas allowed opponents to earn value drives on 44 percent of offensive possessions (81st nationally) and they gave up 2.4 points per drive (77th nationally) a year ago.
5. Oklahoma State Cowboys
FEI projection: No. 6
Undefeated likelihood: 5 percent
Another Big 12 team that could take advantage of a drop-off of other conference contenders is Oklahoma State. The Cowboys lost three games by a single score last year, and another loss by 14 points to Kansas State featured turnovers that cost the Cowboys more than 20 points in turnover value in the game. According to our opponent-adjusted stats, Oklahoma State was 1.4 wins better than its record last season, a strong indicator of next-year success in our formula.
Most of the praise for Mike Gundy's system at Oklahoma State centers around efficiency and production on offense, but another key factor is strong special-teams play. The Cowboys have ranked in the top 10 of our special-teams efficiency metric in each of the past three seasons. Since the Cowboys draw Texas at home, Oklahoma State also has the weakest overall strength of schedule in the Big 12 according to our projections.
6. Michigan State Spartans
FEI projection: No. 15
Undefeated likelihood: 5 percent
The dark horse on this list is the Spartans, a program that ranks as one of the strongest never to have played in a BCS game. That could change this year with a very manageable Big Ten schedule that avoids Ohio State entirely and brings the rival Michigan Wolverines to East Lansing. Road trips to Notre Dame, Nebraska and Northwestern are big obstacles to an undefeated campaign, but our FEI projections give the Spartans a 56 percent chance of winning at least two of those three.
Michigan State has to improve offensively in order to make a run, but extraordinary improvement may not be necessary. The Spartans posted back-to-back 10-win seasons in 2010 and 2011 with pedestrian offensive efficiency metrics, ranking outside the top 40 in both years in avoiding three-and-outs. Mark Dantonio's defenses have been excellent, and should continue to be this fall.
Long-shot candidates
Michigan State makes our list because the Spartans have enough potential to go undefeated against a schedule that includes enough name teams to make moves up the polls. A handful of other teams are more likely to go undefeated, but will have fewer (if any) big games to make an impact in the eyes of voters and computers in the BCS formula.
Louisville and Cincinnati are projected to be the American Athletic Conference contenders with a good shot at an undefeated season, but both play only one game against a projected top-30 opponent this year (against each other). Boise State has an outstanding chance to go undefeated, as well, but won't face a top-40 opponent.