ESPN Insider's "20 teams that can win it all" series is previewing each of the top 20 teams in Brian Fremeau's five-year program metric, with the help of ESPN's Stats & Information group (for a full explanation and links to all of the previews as they are published, click here). This is the entry for Stanford.
The Stanford Cardinal program has seen many highlights throughout its history, but the last two years may be the best the program has ever experienced. The Cardinal won 10 or more games in consecutive seasons for the first time in nearly a century (last done in 1914-15), played in a bowl game for the third consecutive season for only the second time, and set a new club standard by finishing in the top 10 in the AP poll in consecutive years.
For head coach David Shaw, getting this team to meet that high achievement bar in his first year speaks well to his abilities, but the real feather in his coaching cap will be if he can get his 2012 Cardinal club to compete for a BCS title berth without having the benefit of Andrew Luck under center.
So what are Stanford's chances to attain that BCS goal? Let's take a closer look to find out.
Why Stanford can win it all
The Cardinal have the makings of a strong rushing attack
One of the reasons the Cardinal have a shot at succeeding is, as great as Luck was, Stanford was always a run-first team under his tenure (the highest pass-run ratio by the Cardinal in his three years was a 45-55 split in 2011). That's right -- the passing attack that helped display the talents of a No. 1 pick wasn't even getting a simple majority of the plays.
That can be the case again this year, as Stanford returns its top three leading rushers from a 2011 campaign that tallied a total of 2,738 yards, the third-most in school history. All-Pac-12 running back Stepfan Taylor is the go-to ballcarrier, but the team's depth here is so great that it led to the Cardinal making ESPN Insider Travis Haney's list of potential sleeper teams in 2012.
The obvious concern about leaning on the ground game is that Stanford did lose two All-Pac-12 linemen (David DeCastro and Jonathan Martin) to the NFL draft, but let's not forget the Cardinal will be bringing back two honorable mention All-Pac 12 nominees in right tackle Cameron Fleming and left guard David Yankey, as well as a Rimington watch list candidate in center Sam Schwartzstein.
And while the loss of Luck will certainly be felt in a big way at Stanford, the offense is starting from a very good place (fewest three-and-out drives and fewest negative plays in the nation), so this unit can drop off a bit and still be an efficient offensive attack.
This year's receiving corps could be just as good as last year's
Saying goodbye to a 1-2-3 receiving punch of Coby Fleener, Chris Owusu and Griff Whalen certainly isn't a plus, but the Cardinal's top trio this year could be just as good as those three.
Tight end Levine Toilolo racked up a superb 10.4 yards per attempt (YPA) mark last year and he is joined in the lineup by wide receiver Ty Montgomery (10.4 YPA in an excellent freshman campaign that saw him win the team's most outstanding freshman award) and tight end Zach Ertz (9.0 YPA). This trio should give Stanford the makings of an explosive counter-punch in the passing game.
They've got a very tough front seven on defense
To get some perspective on just how dominant the Cardinal's defensive front seven were last year, consider that Stanford ranked third in the nation in rushing defense and 11th in sacks per game.
That type of statistical achievement should be the goal in 2012 as well, since the Cardinal return six of their starting front seven, including two who were first- or second-team All-Pac-12 selections (linebacker Chase Thomas and defensive lineman Ben Gardner). They also will welcome back linebacker Shayne Skov, the team's leading tackler in 2010 and a Todd McShay selection as one of the first-round picks in his early 2013 NFL mock draft, who is returning from a knee injury that cost him most of last season (although he may face disciplinary action after an offseason DUI arrest).
Why Stanford won't win it all
A brutal schedule awaits
The slate of 2012 opponents is not a cakewalk. The Cardinal face the USC Trojans at home in the third game of the year and then have six of their last nine games on the road, including trips to face the Washington Huskies (one of my sleeper picks for this season), Notre Dame Fighting Irish, California Golden Bears and Oregon Ducks. This schedule might not be quite as tough as some of the other Pac-12 powerhouses but it sure doesn't make for an easy BCS title run.
Their secondary is nowhere near as good as the front seven
The strength of the front seven is offset by huge weaknesses in the secondary.
The Cardinal lost three of their back four starters to graduation, including first-team All-Pac-12 strong safety Delano Howell, free safety Michael Thomas (who ranked second on the team in tackles last year) and Johnson Bademosi, the team's best cornerback.
They do get starting cornerback Terrence Brown back, but his 8.6 overall YPA and 10.1 vertical YPA are both indicators that he will be a coverage target for other teams.
This isn't a team that's well-equipped for shootouts
Those secondary personnel woes are compounded by the fact that the Cardinal defense posted an abysmally low 1.9 bad decision rate (BDR) last year. BDR rates how often a quarterback makes a mental mistake with the ball that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover such as a dropped interception, and Stanford's rate fell far below the 3.5 percent BDR that serves as the rough median point for the world of college football.
The low BDR was the key reason Stanford ranked tied for last in the Pac-12 (and tied for 102nd in the nation) in interceptions. What's worse, they lose four of those interceptions (and all of their interception return yardage from last year) to graduation.
Having a combination of bad coverage in the secondary, a low BDR and a lack of ballhawkers on defense is terrible no matter what league a team plays in, but it is especially troubling in a Pac-12 conference that has a slew of terrific passers and ranked second among BCS conferences in scoring offense last year. If the Stanford pass rush has even one game where it is unable to protect the secondary, it could be the factor that leads to a loss that ends the Cardinal's BCS title hopes.
The projection
Brian Fremeau provides his projected record for Stanford in 2012, in addition to the "swing" games on the Cardinal's schedule. Projections are a function of the win likelihood of a team in each regular-season game, based on Football Outsiders' F/+ projected team ratings and home-field advantage. Projections for all Football Bowl Subdivision teams will be published in the FO Almanac, available in July.
Most likely result: 10-2 (33 percent likelihood)
Projection window: 8-4 to 11-1 (93 percent likelihood)
Swing games: versus USC, at Washington, at Notre Dame, at California, at Oregon
Stanford just graduated its best player in decades, but the program's success didn't entirely hinge on Luck, and the foundation has been laid to be a consistent contender going forward. Stanford picked up first downs on better than 75 percent of its third down and short rushing attempts, the fifth-best rate in the nation. The experienced defense was also stubborn on surrendering yardage and points. Stanford ranked first in the country in net points per methodical drive (possessions that last at least 10 plays) and sixth in net points per value drive (possessions begun on own side of the field that reach the opponent's 30-yard line).
There are three peaks in the Stanford schedule -- the conference home opener versus USC in September, back-to-back games against Notre Dame and California in October, and a road trip to Oregon in November. Our projections give Stanford a sizeable advantage in the other eight games (61 percent likelihood of victory in all eight; at Washington is the toughest), and they'll have a solid shot to win one or both of the ND-Cal swing. The Trojans and Ducks figure to be the clear leaders of the league, however, and we give the Cardinal only a 2 percent chance of winning 12 games this year.
-- Brian Fremeau