One of the recurring facets of the Bill James Baseball Abstract book series was his attempt to find leading indicators for whether a team would improve or decline in the following season.
In many cases, the best indicators occurred when a set of statistics showed that a team had a good amount of talent but still had ample room for statistical improvement.
That mindset can be useful in reviewing the college football world to see which mid-level teams -- those with five to seven wins in 2011 -- have the best chance of posting a Top 25-caliber season -- and in some cases, make a run at their conference title -- in 2012. In our analysis, five teams emerged as strong candidates.
The leading indicator for this analysis is which teams look to have the best chance of improving their net scrimmage yards per play, which is defined as offensive yards per play gained minus defensive yards per play allowed, by at least one yard.
The one-yard mark is used because of a study that showed there were 17 teams that improved their NYPP by at least that from 2010 to 2011. (See chart below.)
The group as a whole went from 77 wins to 134 wins, and 16 of the 17 teams saw a win total improvement of at least two games, so this would seem to be a strong leading indicator for any team that is capable of posting this level of NYPP improvement.
Here are five teams that possess the potential for significant statistical improvement, especially when taking into account their schedule, and could find themselves making big jumps in 2012.
Tennessee Volunteers
-0.39 NYPP, 5-7 overall in 2011, 1-7 in SEC
Favorable matchups: Georgia State, Akron, Troy, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
The Volunteers may have made the most impactful coaching signing of the offseason when they brought Sam Pittman on board to be their offensive line coach. Pittman was instrumental in developing a North Carolina offensive line that had two second-team All-ACC honorees last season and could be a huge help for an offense that averaged only 2.76 yards per rush attempt, a total that ranked tied for 117th in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
Adding a ground game upgrade to an offense that will see the return of the talented trio in quarterback Tyler Bray and wide receivers Justin Hunter and Da'Rick Rogers could transform the Vols' offense and vault the team toward a one-yard NYPP increase in 2012.
The schedule also sets up relatively favorably for Tennessee. Unlike in 2011, when it had to play all three SEC West powerhouses (Alabama, Arkansas, LSU), the Volunteers will play only one of those three next season (the Crimson Tide at home). In fact, there are only three contests that look like mismatches at the moment (the Bama game and road trips to Georgia and South Carolina), so if the statistical upgrade is there in 2012, the Vols will be set up well to make a run.
Purdue Boilermakers
-0.24 NYPP, 7-6 overall, 4-4 Big Ten
Favorable matchups: Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Michigan, Marshall, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana
On offense, it all starts with senior quarterback Caleb TerBush. The site cfbstats.com showed TerBush ranked sixth in passer rating in Big Ten conference games last season, which could get even better next season since the Boilermakers are returning three of their top wide receivers and three starting offensive linemen. Add in the fact that both of their top running backs will be back, and it could lead to a significant improvement over Purdue's 5.3 offensive YPP mark from 2012.
The Boilermakers also return six starters on defense, including second-team All-Big Ten defensive back Ricardo Allen, and could have seven returning starters if second-team All-Big Ten defensive lineman Kawann Short decides to come back for his senior season.
Connecticut Huskies
-0.85 NYPP in 2011, 5-7 overall record, 3-4 in Big East
Favorable matchups: Massachusetts, Maryland, Western Michigan, Buffalo, South Florida
The Huskies are in great shape in many ways personnel-wise. They are returning five second-team All-Big East starters, and one of those players is freshman All-American running back Lyle McCombs.
That alone might be enough to get Connecticut into positive NYPP territory, but those odds get even better when noting that the Huskies will be getting defensive coordinator Don Brown back for a second consecutive season (as noted in this video post by ESPN.com Big East blogger Andrea Adelson).
That will be a big help with continuity, as will returning five of six players who started in the secondary and the entire linebacking corps. These items should go a long way toward reducing Connecticut's 7.9 pass YPA allowed total last year, which was tied for 98th in the FBS and was dead last in the Big East.
Northwestern Wildcats
-0.57 NYPP, 6-7 overall record, 3-5 in Big Ten
Favorable matchups: Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Boston College, South Dakota, Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois
It might look at first glance as if the Wildcats will have a tough time replicating their 2011 offensive performance since they are losing former first-team All-Big Ten quarterback Dan Persa, Big Ten tight end of the year Drake Dunsmore and second team All-Big Ten wide receiver Jeremy Ebert.
As daunting as those losses are, the Wildcats do have a talented sophomore quarterback (Kain Colter), who has shown that he has a good chance of getting this offense to produce at the 5.6 offensive YPP level that Persa led this team to last year.
The biggest statistical boost could come from a very favorable schedule. The Wildcats pass defense was bad (8.5 YPA, highest in the Big Ten) and is losing three starters in the secondary, but all of the teams listed in their favorable matchups ranked 85th or worse in the FBS in pass offense YPP last year (except Football Championship Subdivision foe South Dakota), so their most glaring potential weakness could go relatively untested in many games.
Washington Huskies
-0.22 NYPP, 7-6 overall, 5-4 Pac 12
Favorable matchups: San Diego State, Portland State, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington State, Arizona
The Huskies' offense will have to deal with the loss of star running back Chris Polk to the NFL draft, but it should be able to offset that with up-and-coming star quarterback Keith Price, who ranked 12th in the FBS in passer rating despite battling multiple knee injuries. In addition, the Huskies are returning future All-Pac-12 tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, two wide receivers who caught at least 28 passes in 2011 and four starting offensive linemen.
As important as those players are, the biggest step towards the one-yard NYPP improvement goal will have to occur on defense. Coach Steve Sarkisian revamped his defensive coaching staff after the Huskies gave up 67 points to Baylor in the Alamo Bowl.
New defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox did a superb job with Tennessee's young defense last year, and he should be able to improve the Huskies' 7.6 pass YPA allowed (a total that ranked 87th in the FBS).
The key for the Huskies will be not wilting under their positively brutal early-season schedule. After the home opener versus San Diego State, they'll face a five-game stretch that includes road trips to LSU and Oregon and home games against Stanford and USC. However, it's realistic to think that UW could emerge from that with a 3-3 record or better heading into a final six-game stretch of favorable matchups.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."