We're one month away from a second round of portal mania across college football. The spring transfer window opens on April 16 and extends through April 25. The 10-day window is shorter than in previous years but is likely to be no less chaotic. Coaches will try to keep their teams together while players explore their options and try to maximize their value.
This isn't just the last chance for teams with College Football Playoff ambitions to load up with new starters and depth for the long season ahead. It's also perhaps the last big opportunity for coveted players to cash in before teams are faced with salary cap constraints in the upcoming revenue-sharing era.
ESPN surveyed a dozen general managers, personnel staffers and agents about their expectations for the upcoming portal window and five of the biggest questions they have going into April.
Jump to a question:
How much elite talent?
QBs on the move?
Rev-share spending impact?
Position in demand?
Cutting down to 105?
Will elite talent hit the market?
Teams spend millions in December to retain their returning players and win recruiting battles for portal pickups. Players signed NIL contracts with their schools and are receiving payments. But are they actually locked in for 2025?
Last year, the number of FBS scholarship players transferring in the spring window increased by almost 40% with 896 players making moves between April 16-May 2. Personnel staffers are expecting a high volume of players entering the portal as usual. But one month out, they're curious how many proven high-value players will become available.
"I think you probably won't see these big stars that go, because you have big money that's been committed to them and deals that are signed," one ACC director of player personnel (DPP) said.
Top returning players are making more money than ever before, and a lot of them are going into their final season and will have just gone through spring practice. What purpose does it serve, one Big 12 DPP reasoned, to leave a place with one semester left?
Jordan Reid's recent two-round mock draft included 17 players who transferred during their careers. Only three of them -- Derrick Harmon (Michigan State to Oregon), Josh Simmons (San Diego State to Ohio State) and Trey Amos (Louisiana to Alabama to Ole Miss) -- have made spring transfers.
"My guess is it won't be crazy-crazy," an SEC DPP said.
The spring portal is typically full of players seeking better opportunities elsewhere after falling behind on the depth chart. You'll see backups on stacked rosters considering moving on to cash in. You can expect attrition and addition from coaching staffs that are wrapping up Year 1 or just getting started on a new regime.
And then, of course, there will be players who signed deals in December but now want more money. Power 4 programs are already setting aside funds in anticipation that they'll have to step up yet again to keep players out of the portal. Several staffers surveyed noted their players have retention bonuses in their new contracts that will pay out in May after the portal window closes.
"A lot of kids will say, 'Go see what's out there for me,'" one agent told ESPN. "There have been cases where a kid has to announce he's getting in the portal with plans to transfer but really, ultimately, it's just to incentivize the school to come up with it. Typically, it's pretty simple: If you're planning to bring the kid back to start, double his pay. If you can double his pay, I feel like that's a pretty significant commitment to be able to say this guy's coming back to start for us."
There were several examples of top SEC freshmen taking that approach this offseason, including Alabama cornerback Jaylen Mbakwe, Auburn defensive lineman Amaris Williams and Tennessee wide receiver Mike Matthews. All three announced plans to enter the portal but got the deals they were looking for and never officially entered.
"You're always worried about the true freshman who played 200 snaps and we gave decent money to," the Big 12 DPP said, "and then some school's like, 'F--- it, we're going to get that kid' and gives them three times that amount. That's when you're faced with tough situations and you usually have to let them walk."
One key factor for the spring window: You won't see SEC-to-SEC transfers. The deadline for SEC players to make intraconference transfers was Dec. 28, the end of the winter transfer window. That rule applies to grad transfers, too. Coaches inside the conference don't have to worry about SEC powers poaching key players. But everyone else will.
"Everybody's holding their breath now that all their guys aren't going to come in and renegotiate here in April," a second Big 12 DPP said. "They're not tied to us. They can still go in the portal or somebody can offer more money to leave. I mean, they have all the leverage. There's not really much you can do.
"The hope is that your culture and your continuity can keep some trust with guys so that they don't chase the bigger figures."
Will any QBs make moves?
Back in 2022, Jayden Daniels waited until mid-February before deciding it was time to leave Arizona State and transfer to LSU.
In the two years since then, we haven't seen any Heisman-caliber passers hit the open market during the spring. In fact, there hasn't been much of a spring quarterback market at all.
In 2023, the biggest move at the portal deadline was Payton Thorne leaving Michigan State -- along with receiver Keon Coleman -- and landing at Auburn. The Tigers had few options at that point and had to choose between Thorne and Nebraska transfer Casey Thompson, who landed at FAU.
Alabama was looking for quarterback help as well at the time and went with Notre Dame's Tyler Buchner. Northwestern brought in Ben Bryant, and Boston College found a steal in Thomas Castellanos, but the rest of the Power 4 QBs on the move during that period were backups.
The 2024 spring cycle wasn't much different. North Carolina's Jacolby Criswell and Iowa's Brendan Sullivan were brought in as backups and ended up becoming starters due to injuries, but few other spring transfers earned meaningful playing time last season. That includes Jaden Rashada, the former top-100 recruit who generated lots of attention when he transferred from Arizona State to Georgia. Rashada is now back in the portal and still unsigned.
Criswell leaving North Carolina in January does raise the question of whether Bill Belichick will attempt to bring in a proven quarterback in the spring portal window. The Tar Heels have sixth-year senior Max Johnson working to come back from a broken leg and two newcomers, Purdue transfer Ryan Browne and freshman Bryce Baker, competing with three walk-ons this spring.
"Right now, we're focused on the players that are here," Belichick said last week. "Whatever happens with the players coming in or portal players, we'll deal with all that later."
Yes, there will be fascinating spring quarterback competitions going on at Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State and several other high-profile programs. Perhaps a couple of those passers will read the room and start looking for opportunities to start elsewhere in 2025. Nowadays, though, they don't have to put their names in the portal to find out. Their agents and reps can line up offers for them in advance.
More than 40 Power 4 programs have already brought in transfer quarterbacks this offseason. Backups in competitive rooms tend to make moves, but don't expect a slew of big-name quarterbacks on the market this spring.
How will the revenue share cap impact spending?
The December portal window featured several Power 4 programs going on spending sprees to assemble top portal classes. Texas Tech, for example, was prepared to pay big money for top targets and invested more than $10 million in its portal haul knowing this was the last big chance to spend collective money that wouldn't count against the upcoming revenue sharing cap.
The House settlement, if approved, will allow schools to distribute up to $20.5 million to student-athletes during the 2025-26 school year. Staffers are expecting 75% or more of those funds to go to football. Power 4 programs determined to compete at the highest level are working with more than $15 million for their 2025 team. For many programs, that's double or triple what they spent in 2024.
All that extra money in the marketplace inflated the price for top talent. If you're a player who was hoping to maximize your paycheck, you probably should've transferred in December. Teams were intentional about addressing all their needs in the winter, and most GMs and DPPs who spoke with ESPN said they're only looking to add a couple more transfers in the spring.
"We overtook in the winter," one SEC DPP said, "because we didn't want to overpay in the spring."
Now these staffers are focused on figuring out how to manage the new cap. Programs that weren't flush with collective cash in December did backloaded deals with their returning and incoming players, committing revenue-sharing money they can't begin distributing until July. But it's important to note those revenue sharing funds need to get them through the entire 2025-26 school year.
"I've told some guys the money you're making this year is probably the most you're ever going to make," a Big Ten GM said. "It's so inflated when you're double-dipping with collective and rev share."
The schools with well-funded collectives will be the buyers yet again in this portal window. The rest are trying to be much more careful this time around.
"I have a sneaking suspicion that there's going to be some teams that still have a little war chest that they need to spend before it's too late," an ACC GM said. "I think you're going to get some guys trying to spend that and adding depth or making silly offers, because they've got to spend it. It's the last round of unmonitored collective or booster money to inflate the system."
"The days of a $750,000-to-$1-million guy are probably done," a Big 12 DPP added. "As you work through rev share and how strategically you're going to have to build your roster to pay everyone or pay your top-end guys, you're not going to be able to afford to do that."
An expensive one-year pickup in the spring portal will be a big hit to a team's revenue sharing budget, especially for the programs that don't have $15 million. Collectives helped cover the rising cost of talent acquisition in December, but personnel staffers recognize they won't be able to afford those same prices next year.
Under the settlement terms, the revenue sharing cap would increase 4% to roughly $21.3 million for 2026-27. Until these programs figure out how to circumvent the cap, they'll need to spend with caution.
"The thing we're battling is, as it shifts to the revenue share cap, we're going to be paying these guys significantly less money a year from now," an SEC DPP said. "So we've got to structure this the right way."
What's the big position in demand?
Last year's spring portal cycle was especially profitable if you played defensive tackle. Too many contenders were searching for impact players at that position.
Oregon won the battle for Harmon, who was worth every penny as a second-team All-Big Ten performer and potential first-round draft pick. Texas shored up its depth with two quality additions in Bill Norton and Jermayne Lole. Damonic Williams (TCU to Oklahoma), Simeon Barrow Jr. (Michigan State to Miami), CJ West (Kent State to Indiana) and Philip Blidi (Indiana to Auburn) were highly coveted.
Will we see the same trend play out this spring with a position group? It's probably too soon to say, but offensive tackle might end up being the obvious answer.
"We'll be in the left tackle market, as I'm sure will 50 other teams," one Big 12 DPP joked.
In the middle of the December window, Power 4 staffers told ESPN they were able to sign solid, experienced offensive tackles for around $600,000-$700,000. By the end of the cycle, though, demand outweighed the supply and multiple tackles -- including one with zero career starts -- were able to secure deals exceeding $1 million.
"Literally every O-lineman late made money, because people were just taking huge reaches," a second Big 12 DPP said. "It's not necessarily the talent level that separates it -- it's the need of the school they're going to.
One SEC DPP brought up an adage he believes is increasingly valid: Get your starters in the winter and get your backups in the spring. Most staffers are expecting the typical high quantity of second- and third-string players switching schools next month. They'll turn on the tape and hunt for gems and good value among those hundreds of lesser-known names.
The staffers still fishing for help at offensive tackle are mostly looking into who's left at the FCS level and hoping more proven options emerge. During last year's spring window, only three Power 4 teams -- Missouri, Vanderbilt and Duke -- managed to find grad transfer tackles who became 12-game starters.
"We need an offensive tackle. I don't think we can afford one," the second Big 12 DPP said. "Somebody's going to have an injury in spring ball or have a kid transfer. Somebody is going to need linemen. They're already expensive. Now when it's in a scarcer time period, I can only imagine what it's going to look like."
How will they cut down to 105?
Another element of the House settlement that is impacting roster management for 2025: Football teams need to get down to the new 105-man roster cap.
We're going to see walk-on players enter the portal this spring who recognize they're in danger of losing their roster spot. The process of trimming down to 85 scholarship players and 20 walk-ons began in December but will become a big discussion for coaching staffs at the conclusion of spring practice.
The current expectation among coaches and personnel staffers is that they won't have to submit a final 105-man roster until the week of their season opener. Most staffers surveyed told ESPN they're planning to take more than 105 players into preseason camp and then make final cuts at the end of August.
Going into camp over the limit lets them replace players on their 105 who suffer preseason injuries. But once the final 105-man roster is submitted, the current expectation is coaches won't be allowed to call up additional players to their 105 as injury replacements during the season.
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has called having to cut walk-ons "the worst thing in my whole coaching career." It's a sensitive and frustrating topic among coaches and one that will require difficult conversations with players at the end of spring ball. One Big Ten GM said he thinks it's "messed up" to wait until the end of August to cut players loose.
"We want to do right by the kids that aren't going to be with us," he said. "We'll tell them as soon as spring ball's over so they can go find a home. Because holding kids hostage that you know you're going to let go, that's not fair to the kids."
Added a Big 12 DPP: "Candidly, I hate that. You're just going to screw a bunch of kids and piss off a bunch of local coaches because you're cutting local kids."
The spring portal window has typically been a time for coaches to move on from underperforming players at the bottom of their roster, especially for staffs in Year 1 or Year 2. In the past, that attrition was necessary to free up scholarships for incoming players. This year, those players need to go so they can close in on hitting the 105-man limit.
"I think, honestly, it's probably good for the G5 teams and some of the lower P4 teams," an SEC scouting staffer said. "No disrespect to them, but some of our scraps are quality additions for them."