The moment the season ended, the cycle began again. With the 2024 college football season in the books, we immediately pointed the discussion to 2025 with Mark Schlabach's Way-Too-Early Top 25. And before the conversation drifts to the NFL draft or the latest power grabs in store for the Big Ten and SEC, let's have a quick chat about the next College Football Playoff. Why not, right? We're all familiar with the format now (even though it might change soon) -- might as well put that hard-earned knowledge to use.
Now, if we went strictly with Schlabach's rankings -- and if we don't have any format changes until 2026 (which isn't a given) -- we'd be looking at a projected CFP for the 2025 season that looks something like this:
First round
9 LSU at 8 Oregon (winner plays 1 Ohio State)
12 Boise State at 5 Penn State (winner plays 4 BYU)
11 Iowa State at 6 Notre Dame (winner plays 3 Clemson)
10 South Carolina at 7 Georgia (winner plays 2 Texas)
In terms of expectations, that's a perfectly sound place to start. (Though Penn State luring amazing defensive coordinator Jim Knowles away from Ohio State might have gotten them bumped up a spot or two in Schlabach's rankings.) Once I get my SP+ projections up and running in the coming weeks, they might say something similar. But while we get a lot of things right based on what's most likely on paper, let's talk about how this race will really go. Each conference title race brings certain rules to the table; for that matter, so do the battles for at-large bids and the Group of 5 auto bid.
So here's what we're going to do: Instead of simply using "Who are the best teams on paper?" as our guide, we're going to create some rules, some old-school heuristics, to guide us through precisely how this CFP race will play out.
Jump to a topic:
SEC | Big Ten
Big 12 | ACC
Group of 5 | At-large bids
How bracket plays out
SEC champion
The rule: It has to be won by either Kirby Smart (2017, 2022, 2024) or a coach who has proved he can beat Kirby Smart (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023).
Since Georgia's initial breakthrough under Smart, the only teams that have won the SEC are either Georgia or a team coached by someone -- either Nick Saban (Alabama) or Ed Orgeron (LSU) -- who had beaten Smart's Georgia in a previous season. With Saban retired and Orgeron in parts unknown, here's a complete list of current SEC head coaches who have beaten Smart: Kalen DeBoer (Alabama), Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss) and, if we include those who beat Georgia during Smart's shaky first season in 2016, Hugh Freeze (Auburn). Steve Sarkisian's Texas is the highest-ranked SEC team in Schlabach's Way-Too-Early list, but the Longhorns don't meet qualifications.
Of the four official SEC contenders, then -- Georgia (No. 5 on Schlabach's list), Alabama (No. 12), Ole Miss (No. 25) and Auburn ("teams also considered") -- it's tempting to go with either the Rebels (because Kiffin's squad finished 2024 No. 2 in SP+ and were so close to something so much greater) or the Crimson Tide (because it would be just like the Tide to storm back after being written off). But we're going to keep things simple with this pick.
The winner: Georgia. Like each of the other three contenders, the Dawgs will have a new starting quarterback in 2025, but on average the quarterback position seems to mean a bit less when Georgia is involved. The Dawgs threw for only 136 yards in the 2024 SEC championship game, after all, and still won. So Georgia grinds out Smart's fourth SEC title.
Big Ten champion
The rule: It will be won by the best team not named Ohio State (since the Buckeyes will lose to Michigan for a fifth straight year).
Sorry, Buckeyes. I don't make the rules here. Well, I guess I do, but we're going with this anyway. Technically the best team not named Ohio State has won four straight Big Ten titles, and I don't pick against a streak. Ohio State is No. 1 on Schlabach's list, and deservedly so. I'm sure the Buckeyes will look the part for most of the season. But as with 2024, a defeat to Michigan will open the door for a couple of other teams to play for the Big Ten championship.
The main contenders, per Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State, No. 6 Oregon, No. 13 Illinois, No. 17 Indiana and No. 21 Michigan. Illinois should return a ton from this year's delightful 10-win squad, but the fact that the Illini went 5-1 in one-score games in 2024 is a red flag for me. It's hard (though not impossible) to do that twice. Meanwhile, it would be just plain greedy if the amazing Curt Cignetti and his Hoosiers hogged the upstart spotlight for another year -- you've got to let someone else have a turn! So that limits us to the Nittany Lions, Ducks and Wolverines.
The winner: Penn State. For grins, we'll say it's Drew Allar and PSU against Bryce Underwood and Michigan, and the senior blue-chipper beats the freshman blue-chipper in Indianapolis.
Big 12 champion
The rule: Flip the close games around.
Arizona State will have a solid chance to back up its 2024 breakthrough in 2025, returning quarterback Sam Leavitt, wideout Jordyn Tyson and a number of exciting pieces on a defense that was as responsible for ASU's late-season surge as the offense. But the Sun Devils have to replace their heart-and-soul identity man (running back Cam Skattebo), and more importantly, this is the Big 12. In the Big 12, your fate is tied almost exclusively to the whims of the god of close games.
Oklahoma State and Baylor went a combined 10-3 in one-score finishes in 2021 while surging to the Big 12 championship game, then went a combined 13-13 overall in 2022. TCU went 6-1 in one-score games in 2022 on the way to the CFP National Championship game, then crashed to 5-7 the next year. OSU went 5-1 in one-score games during a surprising return to Jerry World in 2023, then collapsed to 3-9 in 2024.
In the most parity-friendly major conference in college football, you rarely get the breaks you need in consecutive seasons. So Arizona State (6-2 in one-score games), Iowa State (5-1) and Texas Tech (6-1, and another from the "also considered" list) are out. In their place roll Utah (1-5) and Kansas (1-5). Kyle Whittingham's Utes and Lance Leipold's Jayhawks both endured terribly disappointing 2024 seasons, and it was almost entirely because tight finishes flipped the wrong direction. (Well, that and Utah went through approximately 28 quarterbacks.) They get the breaks in 2025.
The winner: Utah. Despite collapsing offensively, the Utes still boasted a top-20 defense (per SP+) and lost five games by a total of 23 points. They'll have a chance to charge right back up the standings. All they need is to find a QB1 -- probably New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier -- and keep him on the field.
ACC champion
The rule: It has to be won by either Clemson (2011, 2015 to 2020, 2022, 2024) or a team that beat Clemson in the regular season (2012 to 2014, 2021, 2023).
Indeed, the ACC has been pretty straightforward for the past 14 seasons. Virginia Tech's wild 44-33 win over Florida State in the 2010 ACC championship -- MVP: Tyrod Taylor; head coaches: Frank Beamer and Jimbo Fisher (translation: It was a while ago) -- is the last time either Dabo Swinney's Clemson or a team that beat Clemson didn't win this league. And even since Clemson's downfall as a national title contender after the 2020 season, the trend has held. Either someone knocks Clemson out of contention in the regular season and then capitalizes, or Clemson makes it to, and wins, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Clemson enters 2025 ranked seventh on Schlabach's list, and the Tigers play the following ACC opponents: SMU (No. 15), Duke ("also considered"), Florida State and Syracuse at home, and Louisville (No. 20), Georgia Tech ("also considered"), Boston College and North Carolina on the road. It would be very poetic if Kevin Jennings and SMU got revenge for last year's ACC championship loss and Jennings got another playoff chance after his devastating mistakes in the 2024 CFP. We'll pare this list down even further and say that the most likely ACC team to beat Clemson in 2025 will be Louisville because the talented Cardinals host the Tigers.
The winner: Louisville. It would make more sense to choose Clemson, but I already chose chalk when given a similar choice with Georgia. So we'll say Louisville's regular-season win over Clemson keeps the Tigers out of Charlotte, and the Cardinals lock up their first league title since taking a share of the 2012 Big East crown.
Best Group of 5 champion
The rule: Whoever has the best overall player, wins.
It's a sample size of one, but in the first year of the expanded CFP, the G5's best team was the one that had the G5's best player. Boise State fed Ashton Jeanty over and over, and he not only led the Broncos to the CFP, but he nearly won the Heisman, too.
So who will be the best G5 player in 2025? That's a pretty dicey question. Among other things, that player has to play for a G5 team. A lot of 2024 stars have either declared for the NFL draft or transferred to power-conference destinations -- Coastal Carolina defensive end Clev Lubin (future ACC champion Louisville), James Madison defensive end Eric O'Neill (Rutgers), Florida International receiver Eric Rivers (Georgia Tech), Miami (Ohio) cornerback Raion Strader (Auburn), Army running back Kanye Udoh (Arizona State) and so on. It was a big deal that San Diego State defensive end Trey White declared that he was staying with the Aztecs, but we'll have to wait a while to know who's returning. So we're going to play it safe.
The winner: Boise State. We know that BSU can pony up a bit in NIL, and we know that any combination of defensive end Jayden Virgin-Morgan, offensive tackle Kage Casey or quarterback Maddux Madsen figures to rank pretty highly on a 2025 Best Group of 5 Players list. So congratulations to the Broncos for back-to-back playoff bids.
At-large bids
We need two rules to account for the CFP's at-large bids.
Rule No. 1: Six teams from the Way-Too-Early Top 25.
Of 2024's seven at-large bids, six went to teams on Schlabach's Way-Too-Early list from last January: Texas (No. 2), Ohio State (No. 5), Notre Dame (No. 10), Penn State (No. 12), Tennessee (No. 17) and SMU (a prescient No. 23). So that gives me solid room for artistic license.
First, Ohio State (No. 1 on Schlabach's list) is obviously in despite a challenging 2025 schedule (No. 2 Texas and No. 3 Penn State at home, No. 13 Illinois and No. 21 Michigan on the road) and the requisite loss to the Wolverines. The Buckeyes will go 2-1 against the other headliners and advance at 10-2. Meanwhile, though recent title game losers have a terrible track record of earning second chances -- 2020 runner-up Ohio State and 2021 runner-up Alabama both lost twice to slip out of CFP contention, while 2022 runner-up TCU and 2023 runner-up Washington cratered to a combined 11-14 -- I really like what Marcus Freeman is building at Notre Dame (No. 4), and I'm betting the Irish live up to their Way-Too-Early ranking. So the Fighting Irish are in, too.
Second, I had to make sure at least three more SEC teams got in because I don't want the league demanding even more automatic bids moving forward. Texas (No. 2 on Schlabach's list) is an obvious pick -- the Longhorns are going to be outstanding -- but the main candidates for the other two spots are LSU (No. 8), South Carolina (No. 10), Alabama (No. 12), Florida (No. 18), Tennessee (No. 19), Texas A&M (No. 22) and Ole Miss (No. 25).
LSU is in because Garrett Nussmeier-to-Aaron Anderson is a proven pass combination, Brian Kelly has seemingly done excellent transfer portal work this time, and the odds of a second-year leap for defensive coordinator Blake Baker, with linebackers Whit Weeks and Harold Perkins Jr. returning, are solid.
Alabama is in because I'm giving Kalen DeBoer a mulligan. The Crimson Tide suffered a couple of statistically fluky losses while stumbling to 9-4 last season -- they averaged 6.1 yards per play against Vanderbilt and Michigan and allowed 4.3 but fell to both teams -- and though the Bama offense cratered late in the season, DeBoer's offensive track record is strong, and he was working with inherited personnel. Bama will have an inexperienced QB in 2025, but everyone should understand each other a bit more, and the talent levels will still be ridiculously high. That gives the Tide the edge over a Florida team with another brutal schedule, a Tennessee team with a rebuilding offense, an A&M team with a rebuilding defense and, well, a rebuilding Ole Miss.
So that's five teams. Because the Big 12 will cannibalize itself in the most entertaining way possible, I basically left myself with only ACC or Big Ten teams for the final spot. It was tempting to go with either SMU (Jennings' redemption!) or Miami (Carson Beck vs. Georgia in the CFP?), but the conference with the best 2024 postseason probably deserves a third bid. And because I need to pick at least one team ranked lower on Schlabach's list, and I already randomly stuck Michigan (No. 21) in the Big Ten championship game for some reason, hello, Wolverines.
Rule No. 2: The Curt Cignetti Memorial "Transfers = Total Transformation" Bid.
The transfer portal era means we have to save a spot for an out-of-nowhere stunner. Indiana went 9-27 from 2021 to 2023, then exploded to 11-2 with an almost entirely new roster in Cignetti's first season in charge. So this spot is going to either a power-conference team with a first-year coach and transfer-heavy roster or a team that disappointed in 2024 and appears to be loading up on transfers to rectify that.
Let's lay out the list of candidates. After a strange coaching carousel, we ended up with only five P4 schools with new head coaches: North Carolina (Bill Belichick), Purdue (Barry Odom), UCF (Scott Frost), Wake Forest (Jake Dickert) and West Virginia (Rich Rodriguez). They've each taken in at least 18 transfers, with WVU leading the way with 31.
Meanwhile, we've got six power-conference teams that (A) went no better than 6-7 in 2024, (B) return their head coach and (C) have commitments from at least 20 transfers: Arizona, California, Kansas, Mississippi State, Oklahoma and UCLA.
Among these 14 playoff long shots are quite a few teams with intriguing stories at quarterback. John Mateer could assist in a major offensive turnaround at Oklahoma. Max Johnson returns for North Carolina after seeing almost his 2024 season wiped out due to a nasty Week 1 leg injury. UCLA just added Appalachian State's Joey Aguilar -- I like him quite a bit. Arizona (Noah Fifita) and Kansas (Jalon Daniels) return two of the Big 12's better QBs. Cal (blue-chipper Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele or Ohio State transfer Devin Brown) has intriguing, if mostly unproven, upside.
The winner: North Carolina. I laughed when I realized my choice. With an awesome defense and Mateer leading a transformed offense, Oklahoma is the most obvious pick, but that's the problem: It's too obvious. The Sooners can never write an Indiana-like underdog story, even though its fans carry the biggest chip in college football on their shoulders. It was tempting to sneak Daniels and Kansas in here, especially because I already had them in the Big 12 championship, and I really like Aguilar at UCLA. But what was I supposed to do, not pick a Bill Belichick team? The only thing more incredible than watching Belichick get subjected to a mayo bath after winning the Duke's Mayo Bowl would be watching Belichick guide North Carolina to an out-of-nowhere CFP bid.
The CFP for the 2025 season
So we have our field of 12, and it's a weird one. Now, let's lay out the matchups. It's possible that conference commissioners vote to remove the automatic byes for the top four conference champions for 2025, but that will require a unanimous vote and would require a few conferences to vote against their short-term interests. We'll assume that the auto-byes remain in place for one more year.
Top four seeds: 1 Georgia, 2 Penn State, 3 Utah, 4 Louisville
First-round matchups
12 Boise State at 5 Alabama. A personal dream matchup for the 2009 playoff that we never got.
11 North Carolina at 6 Texas. What was I supposed to do, not set up Belichick vs. (Arch) Manning?
10 LSU at 7 Notre Dame. What was I supposed to do, not set up Brian Kelly vs. Notre Dame?
9 Ohio State at 8 Michigan. What was I supposed to do, not set up the angstiest first-round matchup to date?
Predictions
First round: Until proven otherwise, I'm going to assume that playoff home-field advantage remains the most powerful substance in college football history and select all the home teams.
Quarterfinals: 1 Georgia over 8 Michigan (Sugar Bowl), 5 Alabama over 4 Louisville (Orange Bowl), 3 Utah over 6 Texas (Big 12's revenge in the Cotton Bowl), 2 Penn State over 7 Notre Dame (Rose Bowl)
Semifinals: 1 Georgia over 5 Alabama (Peach Bowl), 2 Penn State over 3 Utah (Fiesta Bowl)
Finals: 2 Penn State over 1 Georgia. Hey, if Will Howard can win a national title, so can Drew Allar. Especially with new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles in Penn State's corner.