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Nine takeaways from college football's December portal window

Oliver McKenna/Icon Sportswire

College football programs looking to improve their rosters for the 2025 season have only about 4,500 players to choose from this offseason.

That's how many Division I football players are currently in the NCAA transfer portal at the end of the December transfer window. We're well on our way to another record-setting year for transfer transactions across the sport as coaches continue to embrace the portal for roster construction and players chase better opportunities and pay on the open market.

During this winter transfer frenzy, we've ranked the top 75 players in the portal as well as the top 25 quarterbacks on the move. We've also given you early winners and losers. Now that the transfer window for underclassmen has closed, here's a closer look at what we can learn from the busiest month of the year in portal recruiting.

Jump to a section:
The portal is not really closed
By the numbers | Cash rules
G5 to P5 moves
QB market | Rebuilds
Attrition leaders | Repeat transfers
Juco ruling

The portal is closed (but not really)

The NCAA's December transfer window opened on Dec. 9, the Monday after conference title games and bowl selections, and closed on Dec. 28. But college football players will continue to show up in the portal over the next few weeks.

Grad transfers can continue to enter the portal at any time through the end of April. The deadline for seniors to opt out of the NFL draft is Feb. 7, so we should have a decent sense by then of who's staying in school and looking to play an extra season elsewhere.

Players on College Football Playoff teams get a five-day window after their season ends to decide if they wish to transfer. Ohio State (10 scholarship transfers) and Texas (9) have already lost a group of players to the portal, but Penn State (4) and Notre Dame (3) have been able to keep almost everyone on board through their deep playoff runs.

Any additional head coaching changes will also open 30-day windows for players on those rosters. Last year, the vacancies at Alabama, Washington, Michigan and several more schools extended the winter portal period well into February.

New portal entries will eventually slow down, but there are still nearly 1,000 FBS scholarship players who are unsigned in the portal. There's much more transfer recruiting to be done in January as uncommitted players hustle to find new homes.


By the numbers

The number of FBS scholarship players who've put their name in the portal during this cycle surpassed 2,200 on Monday. When you take out the players who've withdrawn from the portal, you're left with 2,095 scholarship transfers as of Monday night.

Getting to 2,095 transfers in this portal cycle by Jan. 6 represents an almost 30% increase in transfers year-over-year.

The 2022-23 transfer cycle had a 45-day winter window and more than 1,200 scholarship players entered the portal during the window. Last year saw 1,200 transfers again during a shortened 30-day window.

This year, more than 1,600 FBS scholarship players have entered the portal since Dec. 9. The elimination of the NCAA's one-time transfer rule made another high-attrition offseason seem inevitable.

So far, more than 1,100 transfers have committed to or signed with their next school. Now that schools can officially sign their transfers, we're seeing very few flipped commitments once a player makes their decision and puts pen to paper.


Cash rules everything around transfers

We've been drifting in this direction year after year, but this is the first transfer portal cycle that has truly resembled free agency in pro sports. The difference, of course, is that professional athletes have binding contracts. In the portal, any player can potentially become available if the price is right.

The shift to revenue sharing in 2025 and Power 4 athletic departments preparing to invest $10-15 million in their football rosters for next season has pumped more money into the marketplace than ever before. The cost of retaining players and recruiting transfers has significantly increased this offseason as more players depend on agents to maximize their value.

At the end of November, coaches and their personnel staffs had to renegotiate with their top returning players and put a number in front of them that would hopefully persuade them to stay put. But their agents can easily line up six-figure offers before they even hit the portal. Much like in pro sports, coaching staffs are having to make tough decisions on who they can and cannot afford to bring back.

The recruitments have changed, too. Players aren't taking five official visits and holding commitment ceremonies. If they're satisfied with the opportunity and the dollar figure, they're getting a deal done quickly. If a team can get a top target in for a visit, they're going to offer whatever it takes to get the player to cancel the rest of their trips and sign.

Transfer recruits don't always pick the school that offers the most money, but make no mistake: According to sources, it's all pay-for-play recruiting at this point with parties operating with little to no fear of NCAA penalties.


More G5-to-P4 moves than ever before

The number of Group of 5 scholarship players moving up to Power 4 schools keeps increasing, and we're on pace for another record year in the 2024-25 cycle.

We've already seen 260 G5-to-P4 transfers this offseason with more coming every day. That's a nearly 40% increase from this time last year.

It's a trend that seems irreversible as G5 programs struggle to financially compete with Power programs that can easily outspend them for their best players.

The players who earned Freshman of the Year honors in the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt have all hit the transfer portal this offseason. The rising stars -- receiver Joseph Williams (Tulsa to Colorado), running back DJ McKinney (Sam Houston), quarterback Kadin Semonza (Ball State to Tulane), kicker Caden Chittenden (UNLV to USC), running back Ahmad Hardy (UL Monroe to Missouri) and running back Wayshawn Parker (Washington State to Utah) -- get noticed and get offers to leave as soon as they start producing.

The Defensive Player of the Year honorees in the AAC (UTSA's Jimmori Robinson), CUSA (FIU's Travion Barnes) and Sun Belt (Georgia Southern's Marques Watson-Trent) hit the market as well. The all-conference teams in those leagues have essentially become helpful shopping lists for Power 4 recruiting departments.

More and more G5 players want to put their best on tape and transfer up to get paid. Power 4 personnel departments looking for production over potential are investing more time and effort into evaluating G5 rosters and ensuring top players know they'll have strong offers if they transfer. We've also seen more than 100 FCS players earn Power 4 opportunities in this cycle.

Tulane star running back Makhi Hughes joining quarterback Darian Mensah in hitting the portal was perhaps the most high-profile example of the talent drain in this cycle, as was Washington State's inability to hold onto quarterback John Mateer and its most coveted players before coach Jake Dickert's departure for Wake Forest.

The more this happens, the more you have to appreciate Ashton Jeanty's legendary run at Boise State. Keeping those elite-level players on campus for three or more years seems borderline impossible in this evolving era of college athletics.


Another busy QB market

Back on Dec. 5, we previewed the quarterback market for this cycle and wrote about 25 passers worth watching when the portal opened.

The top seven players on our list -- Mateer (Washington State to Oklahoma), Fernando Mendoza (Cal to Indiana), Mensah (Tulane to Duke), Miller Moss (USC to Louisville), Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma to Auburn), Conner Weigman (Texas A&M to Houston) and Billy Edwards Jr. (Maryland to Wisconsin) -- all ended up transferring, just as Power 4 personnel sources expected.

There weren't many surprises with this portal quarterback class during the winter window. Most Power 4 programs with returning starters were successful in their efforts to re-negotiate with their QBs and their reps and get them re-signed -- typically for more than $1 million next season -- to keep them out of the portal.


Big portal rebuilds

Indiana's Curt Cignetti, Arizona State's Kenny Dillingham and Colorado's Deion Sanders delivered definitive proof this season that dramatic roster flips at the start of a tenure can yield remarkable results. Which teams are chasing portal-heavy overhauls for 2025?

UCF leads all Power 4 programs as of Monday morning with 22 scholarship transfer commitments this offseason. Scott Frost is moving quickly to rebuild the Knights' roster in his return to Orlando. They lost 18 scholarship players to the portal during their coaching transition (including a dozen who signed with Power 4 teams) and have already picked up two new quarterbacks in Indiana's Tayven Jackson and FAU's Cam Fancher, five new offensive linemen and 13 additions on defense.

At Oklahoma State, Mike Gundy is attempting an extreme overhaul for his 21st season leading the Cowboys and putting together a brand-new coaching staff for 2025. If they want to get back to contending in the Big 12 after a stunning 3-9 season, they'll need a high hit rate on this class of mostly under-the-radar prospects. Among their 21 transfer commits Oklahoma State has secured, 13 have come from Group of 5, FCS or D-II programs.

Mississippi State is also chasing a big overhaul in Year 2 with coach Jeff Lebby bringing in 20 transfer commits so far. The Bulldogs lost some of their top young talent to the portal after a 2-10 season. Lebby is attempting a fast fix with a recruiting class heavy on junior college transfers and a portal class that features some very promising additions led by South Alabama transfer Fluff Bothwell, the No. 4 running back in ESPN's transfer rankings, and lots of help on the offensive and defensive lines.

But there are plenty more Power 4 programs who are looking to the portal to solve their problems after disappointing seasons. Arizona, Kansas, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin, Florida State, Houston and Utah are all chasing big portal hauls this offseason with the hopes they can flip their fortunes in 2025.

Southern Miss leads all FBS with 28 incoming transfers, with new coach Charles Huff bringing at least 18 scholarship players with him from Sun Belt champ Marshall. Another fascinating rebuild to watch is Washington State. The Cougars hired Jimmy Rogers away from FCS power South Dakota State, and he has already signed 14 players from the Jackrabbits.


Attrition leaders

FBS programs have lost an average of 16 scholarship players to the portal so far this offseason. Among Power 4 programs, nobody has lost more than Purdue.

Barry Odom took on a challenging rebuild when he chose to leave UNLV for a chance to coach in the Big Ten with the Boilermakers. He took over during a bit of a roster crisis after Ryan Walters' firing, and Purdue currently has 30 scholarship players in the portal.

Sixteen of those players have landed with other P4 programs, including three players in safety Dillon Thieneman (Oregon), tight end Max Klare (Ohio State) and defensive end Will Heldt (Clemson) who made the top 50 of ESPN's transfer rankings. That's a lot of scholarship spots to fill, and Purdue will add plenty in the weeks ahead with seven UNLV transfers already on the way.

Arizona is next on the list of attrition leaders with 29 departures after a rough 4-8 debut season for coach Brent Brennan. Cornerback Tacario Davis is the No. 2 cornerback in ESPN's transfer rankings and appears to be heading towards a reunion with Jedd Fisch at Washington. So far, though, only six of the Wildcats' outgoing transfers have committed to Power 4 programs.

SEC programs Arkansas (26), Mississippi State (25) and Oklahoma (25) are going through high-attrition offseason as well. And then there's Alabama, with 23 scholarship players hitting the portal after Year 1 under Kalen DeBoer. Defensive tackle Jeheim Oatis (Colorado) and running back Justice Haynes (Michigan) were coveted players in the portal and defensive back DeVonta Smith is heading to Notre Dame, but there haven't been many starters among the list of players exiting the program. There's depth that will need to be replaced, and DeBoer has picked up six incoming transfers so far.

At the Group of 5 level, Marshall (35), Coastal Carolina (34), New Mexico (33) and Charlotte (33) are leading the way in roster attrition. Three of those four teams went through head coaching changes this offseason and will look quite different in 2025.


Repeat transfers rising

The death of the one-time transfer rule has helped lead to more than 660 FBS scholarship players re-entering the portal during this cycle to move on to their third, fourth or even fifth school of their career. That's more than 30% of all scholarship players in the portal.

Veteran quarterback TJ Finley is adding a stop at Tulane to his journey from LSU to Auburn to Texas State to Western Kentucky. Robby Ashford is hoping to become the starting QB at Wake Forest after stints at Oregon, Auburn and South Carolina, and Chandler Morris opted to finish his career at Virginia after stops at Oklahoma, TCU and North Texas. But it's not just the QBs making more moves. Safety Jalen Catalon plans to play a seventh season -- this time at Missouri -- after stints at Arkansas, Texas and UNLV.

We've seen several instances in this cycle of players going back to their former school to finish their career. Kahlil Benson (Colorado) and Louis Moore (Ole Miss) are transferring back to Indiana after one season away from the program. Sieh Bangura was Ohio's leading rusher in 2023 and is coming back after one season at Minnesota. Markeston Douglas (Florida State) and Nate Johnson (Utah) are attempting comebacks as well.

The fact that more than 360 (almost 55%) of these repeat transfers have not earned their degree at any of their stops continues to be concerning.


Juco ruling opening more doors

Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia's eligibility lawsuit is certainly having an impact on this portal cycle. The NCAA's blanket waiver that allows former junior college transfers whose eligibility was expiring to return in 2025 has opened the door for a lot of players to benefit from an extra trip through the portal.

Soon after Pavia's injunction led to the blanket waiver, several former juco transfers hit the market to explore their options. Quite a few of them have become coveted in the portal, including former Utah State running back Rahsul Faison, Florida State wide receiver Malik Benson and UTSA linebackers Jimmori Robinson and Martavius French, who's transferring to Colorado.

The continued fallout of Pavia's suit will likely spark big-picture conversations around how many seasons of eligibility student-athletes should have, just as the players with extra COVID years are cycling out. But in the short term, it'll likely mean more draft-eligible players popping up in the portal to play one more college season.