Projecting the College Football Playoff final bracket, top 25

Heather DinichDec 8, 2024, 12:30 AM ET

GRAPEVINE, Texas -- Three-loss Clemson won the ACC in dramatic fashion Saturday night and is heading to the College Football Playoff.

But at the expense of whom?

In the era of the 12-team CFP, Clemson might have beaten SMU twice on the same night -- first on the field, and again by bumping the Mustangs out of the committee's No. 12 spot to make room for itself as the fifth-highest ranked conference champion.

Or will the committee look favorably on the Mustangs' second-half comeback and bump three-loss Alabama instead?

While Georgia's win against Texas in the SEC title game will cause some movement at the top, and Arizona State's Big 12 title gave the Sun Devils a much-needed boost, there was likely no bigger ripple effect Saturday night than Clemson winning the ACC.

Here's the final prediction of what the CFP committee's bracket and top 25 might look like on Selection Day. This is based on what the selection committee has done to this point, what chair Warde Manuel has said about the field and its possibilities, and how the panel has already evaluated the teams to this point.

Remember, the top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.

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Top 25

Projecting the final seeding

1. Oregon Ducks (13-0)

The Ducks enter the playoff as the only undefeated team remaining in the FBS, leaving them the committee's undisputed No. 1 team overall and the No. 1 seed with a first-round bye. Saturday's win against Penn State in the Big Ten championship game punctuated their résumé with a second top-10 win to pair with the Oct. 12 victory against Ohio State. Oregon can also claim a win against Mountain West Conference champion Boise State. The Ducks are unmatched in the combination of eye test and résumé.

2. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2)

The Bulldogs' two losses will keep them from the top overall spot on Selection Day, but winning the SEC title and beating Texas for the second time away from home this season -- first in Austin and again in Atlanta -- should bump Georgia to No. 2 in the committee's ranking and the No. 2 seed. Because Georgia's losses were to two ranked opponents -- Ole Miss and South Carolina -- the committee will probably keep the Bulldogs ahead of one-loss Notre Dame in the overall rankings (the Irish are ineligible for a top-four seed and first-round bye), given that there are people in the room who still struggle with the Irish's home loss to Northern Illinois.

3. Boise State Broncos (12-1)

The Mountain West Conference champions punctuated their résumé with a win against the committee's No. 20-ranked team, UNLV. The fact that Boise State's only loss was by a field goal to the committee's No. 1 team has also helped the Broncos overcome the nation's No. 82 schedule all season. Boise State is a lock for the playoff and a first-round bye as the projected No. 3 seed.

4. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2)

The Sun Devils soundly beat No. 16 Iowa State while SMU couldn't handle the committee's No. 17 team, Clemson. The committee is likely to compare those two results given the similar ranking of both opponents. ASU has two top-20 wins in the past three weeks, against BYU and now the Cyclones, pushing them high enough to earn the fourth and final bye as the fourth highest-ranked conference champion.

5. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2)

The Nittany Lions might not move at all after losing a close game to the committee's No. 1 team. The group will have a good debate between Penn State and SEC runner-up Texas, which lost twice to Georgia. PSU doesn't have much on its résumé to compensate for two losses, but the close defeat to Ohio State and the win over Illinois were two factors that kept the Nittany Lions above Notre Dame to this point.

6. Texas Longhorns (11-2)

The committee won't drastically penalize the Longhorns for losing to a top-five team in overtime, but the head-to-head losses will keep them behind Georgia. Wins at Michigan, which will help keep Texas above Ohio State, and Texas A&M boost the Longhorns' case, and so does a résumé that includes opponents with a winning percentage of .580 -- No. 34 in the country. Because the committee deemed Texas a better team than Notre Dame heading into the SEC championship game, it's unlikely the close loss changes that perspective in the room.

7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1)

The independent Irish are a lock for the playoff and have likely secured a first-round home game, but because they didn't have a conference championship game, nothing happened for them to supplant any of the teams above them. Though Notre Dame has a better record than the top two-loss teams, the Irish are still weighed down by one of the worst losses in the country, to unranked Northern Illinois. The Irish beat Texas A&M and now have a win against American Athletic Conference champion Army, which the committee ranked last week, but the update in résumé won't be enough for a promotion in the meeting room.

8. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)

The committee dropped Ohio State four spots following its loss to Michigan, but kept the Buckeyes ahead of the Vols in large part because of two wins against top-10 teams, Penn State and Indiana. Manuel has repeatedly pointed out the Buckeyes' one-point loss to No. 1-ranked Oregon in Autzen Stadium. Manuel said there was "constant conversation" and "a lot of deliberation" last week between Ohio State and Tennessee, but now that its decision has been made, the committee will stick with it. Ohio State is a lock for the playoff and projected to remain the No. 8 seed and final team awarded a first-round home game.

9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2)

With the Vols and Hoosiers idle this week, "Tennessee will not drop below Indiana at any point," Manuel said. "Neither team is playing." Tennessee's résumé is highlighted by its win against Alabama, but it doesn't have two statement wins that compare with Ohio State's. Tennessee's road loss to unranked Arkansas (6-6) is another factor that will keep the Vols from hosting a home game.

10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1)

The Hoosiers' only loss this season was to a top-10 Ohio State team on the road, and the committee all season rewarded IU for its convincing wins. The Hoosiers are No. 2 in the country in points per game (43.3) and No. 1 in points margin per game (28.7). Their opponents' winning percentage, though, is 45.9% -- ranked No. 120 in the country. Without any wins against ranked opponents, the Hoosiers won't be ranked high enough to earn a home game, and will remain stuck behind Ohio State because of the head-to-head loss.

11. SMU Mustangs (11-2)

Manuel said it was possible that SMU could drop below Alabama with a loss, but the Mustangs might not fall that far after losing to the ACC champs by a field goal as time expired. Even though Clemson beat SMU head-to-head, the committee might not move the three-loss Tigers up ahead of SMU. As the No. 11 seed, SMU would earn the final at-large bid.

12. Clemson Tigers (10-3)

The Tigers clinched a spot in the playoff as the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, but their third loss could still keep them behind SMU. It wouldn't be the first time the selection committee kept a conference champion behind the runner-up. When Kansas State beat TCU to win the Big 12 in 2022, TCU was still ranked higher and went to the CFP as one of the top four teams in the country. By being ranked outside of the committee's top 12, the Tigers will bump the No. 12-ranked team.

Schedule

Based on the seeding above, this would be the schedule:

First-round byes

No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 3 Boise State (Mountain West champ)
No. 4 Arizona State (Big 12 champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 20 and 21

No. 12 Clemson (ACC champ) at No. 5 Penn State
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Texas
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State

Quarterfinal games

At the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Clemson/No. 5 Penn State winner vs. No. 4 Arizona State
No. 11 SMU/No. 6 Texas winner vs. No. 3 Boise State
No. 10 Indiana/No. 7 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 2 Georgia
No. 9 Tennessee/No. 8 Ohio State winner vs. No. 1 Oregon

Semifinal games

Jan. 9: Capital One Orange Bowl
Jan. 10: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T

Jan. 20: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)

Next two out

Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)

The Tide were on the bubble heading into this weekend, and what happened in the ACC championship game pushed Alabama out of the bracket to make room for Clemson. Alabama's wins against Georgia, South Carolina and Mizzou helped the Tide overcome losses to Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Tennessee in the room, but they couldn't beat the system, which guarantees spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions, even if that comes at the expense of the No. 11 team.

Miami Hurricanes (10-2)

Following the penultimate ranking, the committee made clear that Miami was trailing Alabama because the Tide had better records against winning opponents and CFP top-25 teams. "Miami, up until the last three weeks, they've had a very good season," Manuel said, noting the Canes lost two of their final three regular-season games. Manuel said that even if any of Miami's opponents enter the final ranking, it's not going to help the Canes' résumé enough to change their position. "We have already evaluated those teams and recognize that Miami has beat Louisville and Duke," Manuel said. "So that's already in our analysis in the process of how we've talked about them and where they're ranked. So whether they come into the top 25, we're not going backwards and reranking teams based on who wins or who loses in the championship game."