With conference championship games looming this weekend, only one piece of the College Football Playoff puzzle remains, and no games will have bigger impacts on Selection Day than the ACC, Big 12 and Mountain West Conference championship games.
The results of those games will determine the final ranking, who gets in and who gets left out, but don't expect major movement -- at least according to selection committee chair Warde Manuel.
Below is a look at what we learned from the committee's penultimate set of rankings -- plus a look at five more teams that have an outside chance of sneaking in after championship weekend and how the Group of 5 race stacks up.
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What we learned
Last two in | First five out
Group of 5
What we learned
Miami's path to the playoff looks blocked
At No. 12, the Canes will be excluded from the playoff for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, and that doesn't appear to be changing on Selection Day. Following the ranking, Manuel told ESPN's Rece Davis that teams that aren't competing in championship games -- including Alabama and Miami -- wouldn't have their rankings changed because they're not playing another game.
"Any team that is not playing right now, we don't have a data point to rearrange where we have those teams ranked, and so that is set in terms of how we see them going into the final week of championship week," Manuel said. "There's nothing that's going to change for us to evaluate them any differently than we have now."
Even if No. 10 Boise State were to lose above them and the Canes were bumped up by default, they would still likely be pushed out because the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots. That would mean there needs to be room for UNLV as the Mountain West Conference winner, and the Big 12 champion.
Alabama has separated itself as the committee's top three-loss team
Alabama's jump ahead of Miami further distanced the Tide from three-loss SEC teams Ole Miss and South Carolina. Like Alabama, Ole Miss also beat South Carolina and Georgia -- and unlike the Tide, the Rebels beat Oklahoma 26-14.
Bama beat LSU soundly, while the Ole Miss lost to LSU in overtime. As comparable as they are, though, the committee gave the Tide an added boost over the Canes. Manuel noted that Alabama is 3-1 against teams ranked by the committee, while Miami is 0-1. The Tide were 6-1 against opponents with winning records, while the Hurricanes are 4-2.
Alabama still isn't a lock
It's not just the No. 12-ranked team that could be excluded from the bracket on Selection Day. If two of the five highest-ranked conference champions are ranked outside of the committee's top 12, the No. 11 AND No. 12 teams get bumped to make room for them.
Clemson could become a bid-stealer if it beats SMU, which could potentially stay in the bracket with a loss. If the ACC and Big 12 champs remain ranked outside of the committee's top 12 on Selection Day, they would bump both Alabama and Miami.
Ohio State is still in the committee's good graces
Following a shocking home loss to Michigan, Ohio State sank four spots to No. 6 but is still poised to host a first-round home game. If the playoff were today, the Buckeyes would earn the No. 8 seed and host Tennessee. Ohio State's two top-10 wins against No. 3 Penn State and No. 9 Indiana helped keep the Buckeyes high enough to get a home start in their chase of the national title.
Because they're not playing for the Big Ten title, and Manuel said the order is unlikely to change, the Buckeyes' home game seems safe.
Notre Dame, the SEC and Big Ten losers seem safe to host a first-round game
With Notre Dame unlikely to make any major moves without a conference championship game, the Irish should be a lock to host a first-round home game. Teams seeded 5-8 earn first-round home games. The highest the independent Irish could be seeded is No. 5 because the top four seeds go to conference champions.
The Big Ten title game will feature two of the committee's top three teams, making a significant drop unlikely for the loser. If Penn State loses, it would likely drop behind Ohio State because of the head-to-head result but likely stay ahead of Tennessee. If the Nittany Lions lose by a lopsided score, they could sink below the Vols. The SEC title game will feature two top-five teams that already played each other in Georgia and Texas. As long as everyone stays within the top six, they should be safe at home.
Last two in
No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)
Why they should be worried: If the ACC and Big 12 champions are both ranked outside of the committee's top 12 on Selection Day, the Tide will get bumped out of the bracket along with No. 12-ranked Miami to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions.
ESPN Analytics says: Alabama has an 86.3% chance to reach the CFP, the ninth-best chance in the country.
No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2)
Why they should be worried: An Iowa State win in the Big 12 title game would knock the Sun Devils out with their third loss.
ESPN Analytics says: Iowa State has a 55% chance to win the Big 12.
First five out
Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
Best win: Nov. 2 vs. Duke, 53-31
Best argument: The Canes have two losses, while Alabama has three, and neither of Miami's losses were as bad as Alabama's 24-3 loss at Oklahoma.
Biggest problem: The committee has already made up its mind and is highly unlikely to change it.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Miami has a 0.5% chance to make the playoff.
Iowa State Cyclones (10-2)
Best win: Nov. 30 vs. Kansas State, 29-21
Best argument: A Big 12 title will guarantee their spot and possibly open the door for a first-round bye.
Biggest problem: The Cyclones will face Arizona State and running back Cam Skattebo, who has rushed for 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns this season. Iowa State is No. 112 in the country in allowing 5.02 yards per carry, and is 96th in rushing defense with 173.7 yards per game.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: The Cyclones have the 12th-best chance to reach the playoff (55.4%).
Clemson Tigers (9-3)
Best win: Nov. 16 at Pitt, 24-20
Best argument: A win against SMU in the ACC title game would guarantee the Tigers a spot in the playoff as one of the committee's five highest-ranked conference champions.
Biggest problem: Beyond the obvious loss to SMU ... if Clemson wins the ACC but is ranked behind Big 12 winner Arizona State or Iowa State -- as it was in Tuesday's ranking -- it would not receive a first-round bye on Selection Day.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Clemson has a 46% chance to reach the CFP, the 13th-best chance in the country.
Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
Best win: Oct. 5 at South Carolina, 27-3
Best argument: The convincing win against the Gamecocks is the best thing the Rebels have going for them, as the head-to-head result will loom large in the committee meeting room.
Biggest problem: The home loss to 4-8 Kentucky is worse than either of Miami's losses, and the Canes were able to beat common opponent Florida in The Swamp.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: The Rebels have a 0.0 percent chance to make the playoff.
South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)
Best win: Nov. 30 at Clemson, 17-14
Best argument: The Gamecocks have been much improved over their six-game winning streak, which could include a win against the eventual ACC champion in Clemson.
Biggest problem: The head-to-head losses to Ole Miss and Alabama in back-to-back weeks could keep the three-loss SEC pecking order the same.
The Allstate Playoff Predictor says: The Gamecocks have a 0.0% chance to reach the CFP.
Group of 5 Power Rankings
The reality is this race has been whittled down to the winner of the Mountain West Conference championship game between Boise State and UNLV. Within the selection committee meeting room, there's no expectation the American Athletic Conference champion -- Tulane or Army -- would jump Boise State or UNLV.
The American does have two teams ranked in the top 25 -- No. 24 Army and No. 25 Memphis -- but the Tigers' season is over and the Black Knights would likely need to displace UNLV, a team that would have just beaten No. 10 Boise State.
1. Boise State Broncos (11-1), Mountain West
Best win: Oct. 25 at UNLV, 29-24
Chance to win conference: 69%
The Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Boise State has a 69.0% chance to reach the CFP, No. 10 in the country. The Broncos have a 67.1% chance to earn a first-round bye, the best in the country.
2. UNLV Rebels (10-2), Mountain West
Best win: Nov. 22 at San Jose State, 27-16
Chance to win conference: 31.5%
The Allstate Playoff Predictor says: UNLV has a 28.8% chance to reach the CFP, No. 15 in the country behind Alabama.