Just when Ohio State eased ahead in the "Who's the best team in college football?" conversation, Rivalry Week reeled the Buckeyes right back in. Saturday's loss to Michigan both knocked them out of the Big Ten title race and once again compressed the top of the SP+ ratings. The top four teams are all within two points of each other, and the top 10 are all within five and a half. This is pretty much exactly what you want to see heading into the first 12-team CFP.
Here's another thing you want to see: tightly projected conference championship games. Based on the ratings below, eight of nine title games are projected within 5.4 points, including all four power-conference games: Georgia vs. Texas (Horns by 1.5), Oregon vs. Penn State (Ducks by 3.2), Iowa State vs. Arizona State (Cyclones by 3.7, though SP+ has been underselling ASU for a while) and SMU vs. Clemson (Mustangs by 5.4).
Below are this week's SP+ rankings. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system does. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
This week's movers
Let's take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We're looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week.
Rutgers: up 3.0 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 64th to 53rd)
FAU: up 3.0 points (120th to 113th)
Texas Tech: up 2.8 points (65th to 55th)
UCLA: up 2.7 points (89th to 76th)
Louisiana Tech: up 2.4 points (111th to 105th)
LSU: up 2.4 points (22nd to 17th)
Virginia Tech: up 2.3 points (31st to 26th)
SMU: up 2.2 points (13th to 12th)
Buffalo: up 2.2 points (103rd to 97th)
Colorado: up 2.2 points (33rd to 27th)
Some of Rivalry Week's best performances went under the radar. Rutgers prevented Michigan State from reaching bowl eligibility with a 41-14 pasting in East Lansing, Texas Tech waylaid West Virginia 52-15, and interim-coached FAU obliterated interim-coached Tulsa 63-16 in Tulsa. Perhaps most notably, Virginia Tech reached bowl eligibility with an easy 37-17 win over Virginia; the Hokies started poorly this season but rose high enough in the ratings to make you wonder what they'd have been capable of had quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten stayed healthy all season.
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Toledo: down 3.1 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 75th to 81st)
Bowling Green: down 3.1 points (63rd to 73rd)
Ohio State: down 3.0 points (no change in ranking)
Kansas: down 2.8 points (41st to 51st)
Appalachian State: down 2.7 points (96th to 103rd)
West Virginia: down 2.6 points (58th to 67th)
Tulsa: down 2.3 points (127th to 129th)
California: down 2.2 points (38th to 45th)
Kennesaw State: down 2.2 points (no change in ranking)
Tulane: down 2.0 points (27th to 35th)
Bad week for Ohio teams, huh? Ohio State may have remained No. 1 overall by the skin of its teeth, but the Buckeyes fell a considerable amount after their offensive no-show against Michigan. Meanwhile, what probably should have been the two best MAC teams, Toledo and BGSU, stumbled at the finish line: Toledo lost to Akron for the first time since 2013, and in a win-and-you're-in game against Miami (Ohio), BGSU missed out on the MAC championship by falling 28-12 at home.
Conference rankings
Here are FBS conferences ranked by average SP+:
1. SEC: 14.7 average rating (32.6 offense, 19.0 defense)
2. Big Ten: 6.7 average rating (26.9 offense, 20.4 defense)
3. ACC: 5.4 average rating (30.2 offense, 25.0 defense)
4. Big 12: 4.4 average rating (29.4 offense, 25.1 defense)
5. Sun Belt: -6.8 average rating (25.8 offense, 32.5 defense)
6. AAC: -7.2 average rating (25.8 offense, 32.9 defense)
7. Mountain West: -8.2 average rating (24.5 offense, 31.9 defense)
8. MAC: -13.0 average rating (19.4 offense, 32.2 defense)
9. Conference USA: -14.0 average rating (18.4 offense, 31.7 defense)
There are no changes in the rankings here, but I do love that the Big Ten has once again lived up to its anti-offense reputation: Its average offensive rating is closer to the Sun Belt's than the Big 12's. Defense is good, however.
Résumé SP+
Since the College Football Playoff rankings are well underway, I'm also including résumé SP+ rankings in this piece each week.
As mentioned above, SP+ is intended to be a power rating, not a résumé evaluation tool, but résumé SP+ attempts to fill that gap. It is a look at two things: (1) how the average SP+ top-five team would be projected to perform against your schedule (in terms of scoring margin) and (2) how your scoring margin compares to (1). Throw in a seven-point penalty for every loss a team has suffered, and you can say that this is what the CFP rankings would look like if SP+ were in charge.
(Note: Because of the high bar teams have to clear in getting compared to an average top-five team, and because of the loss adjustment, every team on this week's list ends up with a negative score. It is what it is.)
Here is this week's résumé SP+ top 15:
1. Texas (11-1): -7.6
2. Oregon (12-0): -9.1
3. Notre Dame (11-1): -9.2
4. Indiana (11-1): -14.0
5. Penn State (11-1): -15.4
6. Ohio State (10-2): -15.4
7. SMU (11-1): -16.9
8. Georgia (10-2): -19.6
9. Tennessee (10-2): -20.3
10. Miami (10-2): -23.4
11. Boise State (11-1): -24.6
12. Alabama (9-3): -24.8
13. Ole Miss (9-3): -25.2
14. Army (10-1): -28.4
15. South Carolina (9-3): -28.9
If nothing else, Notre Dame should end up the No. 5 seed in the College Football Playoff, and with a win over UNLV in the MWC championship, Boise State should comfortably land the No. 4 over the Big 12 champion.
