Last night, America decided. The people have chosen their leader.
I am referring, of course, to The Oregon Duck. The College Football Playoff committee named unbeaten Oregon as the No. 1 team in its inaugural 2024 rankings. It's an accomplishment in itself -- one that required beating the No. 2 team at home and the defending national champ on the road -- though obviously it's not something you hang a banner for. (Sorry, Mississippi State.) After all, in the 10 years of the CFP era, only two teams won the national title after scoring the first No. 1 ranking, and that was when we let only four teams in the gate.
With 12 playoff spots now available, including five automatic bids for conference champions, we are no longer allowing just the committee to decide who gets to attend the dance. Nearly half the field, and four quarterfinal spots, will be decided by actual conference standings. These title races mean more than ever, and each conference has its own mix of favorites and dark horses at the moment. So let's walk through how the CFP table has been set and who is most likely to score those automatic bids.
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Group of 5
What stood out about the CFP rankings?
Here's a sentence I never thought I'd type: First indications this year are that the CFP committee might be ... underrating the SEC?
A few years ago I learned that by combining poll averages (AP and coaches polls) with a computer average derived from both power ratings (SP+ and FPI) and résumé ratings (Résumé SP+ and strength of record), we could approximate the CFP committee's thinking pretty well. This almost BCS-style rating lined up with what the committee produces most of the time, enough so that when the committee strayed into something different, it stood out. And if the committee was looking at things differently this time around, in theory that might stand out too.
Here's what this BCS-style approach produced this week, along with where the committee disagreed.
BCS-style rankings:
1. Oregon (9-0)
2. Georgia (7-1) -- No. 3 in CFP rankings
3. Ohio State (7-1) -- No. 2 in CFP rankings
4. Miami (9-0)
5. Texas (7-1)
6. Tennessee (7-1) -- No. 7 in CFP rankings
7. Penn State (7-1) -- No. 6 in CFP rankings
8. Indiana (9-0)
9. Notre Dame (7-1) -- No. 10 in CFP rankings
10. BYU (8-0) -- No. 9 in CFP rankings
11. Alabama (6-2)
12. Ole Miss (7-2) -- No. 16 in CFP rankings
13. LSU (6-2) -- No. 15 in CFP rankings
14. SMU (8-1) -- No. 13 in CFP rankings
15. Boise State (7-1) -- No. 12 in CFP rankings
16. Texas A&M (7-2) -- No. 14 in CFP rankings
17. Iowa State (7-1)
18. Clemson (6-2) -- No. 23 in CFP rankings
19. Army (8-0) -- No. 25 in CFP rankings
20. Kansas State (7-2) -- No. 19 in CFP rankings
21. Washington State (7-1)
22. Pittsburgh (7-1) -- No. 18 in CFP rankings
23. Missouri (6-2) -- No. 24 in CFP rankings
24. Colorado (6-2) -- No. 20 in CFP rankings
25. Louisville (6-3) -- No. 22 in CFP rankings
The committee ranked Pitt and Colorado four spots higher than this formula did, while Boise State and Louisville were three spots higher and A&M was two spots higher. But the Aggies were the only SEC team that ended up higher than expected.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss ended up four spots lower, LSU was two spots lower and Georgia, Tennessee and Missouri were all one spot lower. In the case of Georgia and Tennessee, both ended up basically flipping spots with a Big Ten team. Army, with a particularly weak schedule to date -- but with a game against Notre Dame coming up in a few weeks -- was six spots lower than the formula expected, and despite the committee looking favorably upon Pitt and Louisville, it ranked ACC mate Clemson five spots lower than expected.
Add it all up and Big 12 teams ended up a combined six spots higher than expected, ACC teams were plus-3, and Big Ten teams were plus-2, while Group of 5 teams were three spots lower than expected and SEC teams were minus-seven.
As someone who has hated the SEC's and Big Ten's recent power and money grabs, I'm not going to complain about the committee smiling on the Big 12 and ACC (and Boise State!) a bit. But it's still surprising. I would have thought that since Georgia has played the hardest schedule in the country and comfortably beat the No. 5 team in the rankings on the road, that would be enough to rank as the highest one-loss team. But both Ohio State and Penn State seemed to benefit more from losing to higher-ranked teams than Georgia and Tennessee did.
Maybe the single lasting takeaway: While the committee mostly agreed with the formula when it came to ranking unbeatens -- the four remaining power-conference unbeatens combined ranked just one spot higher than projected -- one-loss teams ranked a combined seven spots higher than projected. Meanwhile, five two-loss SEC teams ranked a combined five spots lower than projected.
Your pure record seems to matter. That means bad things for some SEC teams right now, but a lot more teams will lose games moving forward. We'll see how things look a couple of weeks from now.
In the meantime, let's shift gears to the conference races.
SEC forecast
Favorites (title odds of 20% or higher, per SP+): Texas (30.8%), Georgia (25.4%)
Texas A&M's loss to South Carolina was like nature making a course correction. This time last week, the Aggies, with their unbeaten SEC record, were basically conference co-favorites with Texas, while Georgia, the No. 2 team in the polls, was the No. 3 favorite. As impressive as A&M had been, that didn't feel quite right; nature took care of it.
Georgia's SEC title odds rose by 9.7 percentage points after Saturday, both because of A&M's loss and the Dawgs' own rise in SP+ following a statistically dominant performance against Florida. Texas still holds a slight overall edge despite a head-to-head loss to Georgia, mainly because the Longhorns are more likely to reach the SEC championship game in the first place: They do play A&M (13th in SP+) over Thanksgiving, but Georgia still has to play both Ole Miss (fourth) and Tennessee (10th).
Fighting chance (title odds of 10-20%): Alabama (12.6%), Tennessee (11.5%), LSU (10.3%)
The SEC currently has five teams tied for first place in the loss column -- 5-1 Georgia, 5-1 Texas A&M, 4-1 Tennessee, 3-1 Texas, 3-1 LSU -- and seven teams ranked between second and 13th in SP+ (those five, plus Ole Miss and Alabama). Everyone has some awfully losable games remaining, and that's leaving things pretty undecided. Texas and Georgia have only a combined 56% chance of winning the title; as we'll see below, that's a pretty low number for a conference's top two favorites.
The winner of Saturday's Bama-LSU game is going to have a good chance of upsetting the apple cart, and Tennessee is just an upset of Georgia away from becoming a major player too. And how hard could beating Georgia really be, anyway?
Ah, I see.
Long shots (title odds of 1-10%): Texas A&M (8.4%)
A&M had a mulligan to spend, having reached November unbeaten in conference play, but spending it on the South Carolina game and not the year-end Texas game made a huge difference in the race. The Aggies' conference title odds fell by 16.2 percentage points in Week 10; only Clemson's and Liberty's fell by more.
Biggest remaining games: Georgia at Ole Miss (Nov. 9), Alabama at LSU (Nov. 9), Tennessee at Georgia (Nov. 16), Texas at Texas A&M (Nov. 30).
Whether the committee really is underrating certain SEC teams at the moment, obviously having seven of the top 16 teams in the CFP rankings means the SEC is likely to end up with plenty of spots in the CFP field. But every coach I've talked to thinks the first-round bye is an enormous advantage -- almost too big of one -- and winning the SEC will matter quite a bit. And over the next four Saturdays, we've got four enormous games that will determine who has a chance to play for that bye.
Big Ten forecast
Favorites: Oregon (46.8%), Ohio State (37.5%)
A pretty straightforward race was guaranteed to become even more so when Ohio State and Penn State faced off. The Buckeyes' win in Happy Valley added 16 percentage points to their conference title odds while shrinking PSU's by 16.2. Oregon is a projected favorite of at least 18 points in each of three remaining conference games, so the Ducks are all but guaranteed to play in Indianapolis. Ohio State has four games left and is a projected favorite of at least 22 points in three, but Week 13's visit from Indiana will tell us if there's still room for someone else in the race.
Long shots: Indiana (9.0%), Penn State (6.7%)
Honestly, there probably isn't room for another contender -- the Buckeyes are still projected favorites by 12 points against Indiana -- but hey, that's just one more projection for the Hoosiers to mock when they win the whole damn thing.
Biggest remaining games: Indiana at Ohio State (Nov. 23)
I know Indiana is dreaming as big as possible right now, but it's still worth celebrating that it's Nov. 6, and the Hoosiers have already won nine games for just the third time in program history. They're all but guaranteed to finish with at least 10 wins for the first time ever. That's so damn cool, and we haven't even gotten to the schadenfreude part, where their chief rival, Purdue, now has a 68% chance of finishing 1-11.
ACC forecast
Favorites: Miami (62.1%), SMU (32.5%)
Miami is nearing the finish line. The Hurricanes trailed Duke by 11 midway through the third quarter Saturday but erupted for a 36-3 run and cruised 53-31. The defense is still an enigma, to put it as politely as possible, but Cam Ward helms the best offense in college football, and the Canes are projected favorites of at least 17 points in each of three remaining conference games. Playing at both Georgia Tech and Syracuse doesn't come without risk, but it would be a stunner if they didn't reach their second ACC championship game.
Miami has been on the favorites list for a while, though. HELLO THERE, SMU. The Mustangs' blowout of previously unbeaten Pitt bumped them to 14th in SP+, and Clemson's comprehensive home loss to Louisville flipped this race all around. Clemson's conference title odds tumbled by 16.7 percentage points, and SMU's rose by 17.3.
Long shots: Clemson (3.0%), Louisville (1.3%), Pitt (1.0%)
Now down to 15th in SP+, Clemson still has to play at Virginia Tech (27th) and Pitt (29th); SP+ gives the Tigers only a 36% chance of winning both games, but to get back in the title picture they need to win both and hope for a pretty big upset or two elsewhere. Louisville has to beat Stanford and Pitt and hope for a lot of chaos, and Pitt needs to beat both Clemson and Louisville and hope for SMU to fall apart.
Biggest remaining games: Clemson at Pitt (Nov. 16), Pitt at Louisville (Nov. 23)
Everyone needs Miami and/or SMU to slip up. Otherwise these "biggest remaining games" will just decide third place. But with Pitt ranking higher than expected, the Panthers could absolutely play their way into an at-large bid with wins in the two games above.
Big 12 forecast
Favorites: BYU (43.1%), Iowa State (21.9%)
The Big 12 had a chaotic Saturday, with both Iowa State (home to Texas Tech) and Kansas State (away to Houston) falling as decent-sized favorites. Because of this, BYU had the best bye week ever, watching its conference title odds rise by 9.3 percentage points without playing. (Colorado's rose by 6.3 on bye as well.) The Cougars have a "we're unbeaten" mulligan that no one else has.
ISU spent its unbeaten mulligan before it might have preferred to -- the Week 14 visit from Kansas State could now become an elimination game -- but the Cyclones' title odds fell by only 5.5 percentage points. They're still in solid shape, at least if they can figure out why the heck their offense couldn't close drives against Texas Tech. They blew countless opportunities in a 23-22 loss.
Fighting chance: Kansas State (15.7%), Colorado (11.6%)
K-State's title odds fell by 14.4 percentage points after its unexpected loss; the Wildcats are still 18th in SP+ and are semi-comfortable home favorites against both Arizona State and Cincinnati in Weeks 12 and 13, but they now need to both win out and hope a rising contender slips up as well.
That contender: Deion Sanders' Colorado Buffaloes. When the false early-season hype died, the Buffs buckled down and started building real hype. They were 79th in SP+ following their 28-10 loss to Nebraska, but they've won five of six since and have risen to 37th. Their defense has surged from 113th to 55th in defensive SP+. They're still only the No. 4 conference favorite, thanks both to a loss to Kansas State and the fact that, with a No. 37 ranking, their next three games (at Texas Tech in Week 11, Utah in Week 12, at Kansas in Week 13) are all projected tossups. But no one has improved more over the past month, and it would be an incredible story if they continue to rise.
Long shots: Texas Tech (2.7%), Cincinnati (1.9%), Arizona State (1.6%)
From a quality perspective, we know who still has a legitimate chance in this conference. But eight teams are still within one game of the top two, and if a team were to suddenly catch fire, (a) it would likely be one of these three, and (b) there would still be a runway to the title game and, therefore, the playoff.
Biggest remaining games: Colorado at Texas Tech (Nov. 9), Arizona State at Kansas State (Nov. 16), BYU at Arizona State (Nov. 23), Kansas State at Iowa State (Nov. 30)
Iowa State has to slip up again for anything to matter here (or BYU has to slip up twice), but after what we saw last Saturday, anything remains possible in the Big 12.
Group of 5 forecast
The Allstate Playoff Predictor sees the race for the fifth automatic CFP bid as either Boise State's to lose or Army's to steal. BSU has a stellar No. 12 ranking in the first CFP rankings and is, as you'll see below, a significant favorite in the Mountain West. If Army upsets No. 10 Notre Dame in Week 13 and finishes the regular season unbeaten, that will give the Black Knights a huge boost. But they'll have to make up 13 spots on Boise State; that's a tall task if the Broncos don't lose, and that's before we even get to how unlikely it is that Army will actually, you know, beat Notre Dame and finish unbeaten.
That said, all five G5 races are interesting in a different way, even if the CFP fight is likely coming down to only two of them.
AAC: Army (66.0%), Tulane (25.4%), Navy (6.7%), Memphis (1.9%)
SP+ has been slow to warm to Tulane, which fell to 73rd after allowing 34 points to an awful Oklahoma offense in Week 3, but the Green Wave have risen to 52nd -- they're 24th in FPI, one of the largest disagreements you'll ever see between those two systems -- and because both Navy and Memphis suffered upset losses last week, they now have one foot in the AAC championship game. If the Wave win out and BSU slips up, Tulane, a team that has lost only to Kansas State and Oklahoma, could still make the CFP.
Conference USA: Western Kentucky (53.2%), Jacksonville State (28.4%), Liberty (10.6%), Sam Houston (7.8%)
Two weeks ago, Liberty had a 49.0% chance of winning CUSA. Two losses later, the Flames are in also-ran status hoping that either WKU or JSU, maybe the single hottest team in the G5 universe, slips up to give them another shot. JSU has won five in a row, WKU six of seven. Sam Houston, meanwhile, has also won six of seven and is 4-1 in conference play, but with remaining games at Jacksonville State and at home against Liberty, the Bearkats remain long shots.
MAC: Toledo (25.3%), Bowling Green (21.0%), Miami (Ohio) (19.8%), Western Michigan (19.6%), Ohio (7.4%), Buffalo (4.6%), Northern Illinois (1.9%)
Toledo wins and becomes the MAC favorite, then gets upset and falls back to the pack. That cycle has now repeated itself multiple times in 2024. The Rockets returned to the front of the line after allowing a Hail Mary completion to Eastern Michigan but watching a potential game-winning 2-point conversion pass fall incomplete. They're projected favorites in every remaining game, but they were favored in the two they lost too. If or when they slip up again, this race goes into absolute chaos mode. And just in time for midweek MACtion.
Mountain West: Boise State (79.7%), UNLV (12.1%), Colorado State (7.1%)
Only two teams have remained within single digits of Boise State this year: top-ranked Oregon and UNLV in Vegas. The Rebels might get a second chance -- albeit in Boise -- in the conference title game, but really the only mystery left in the MWC is whether UNLV can fend off Colorado State, winner of four in a row, for that opportunity. Fresno State's blown lead and loss to Hawai'i all but eliminated the Bulldogs.
Sun Belt: Louisiana (56.4%), Georgia Southern (15.9%), James Madison (14.5%), Marshall (5.4%), Old Dominion (2.8%), South Alabama (2.7%)
Outside of Boise State and Army, there's a third team with at least decent odds of getting to 12-1. Louisiana has lost only to Tulane and has won five games in a row, albeit all by 10 or fewer points. They're up to 51st in SP+, and three of their four remaining opponents are 100th or worse. BSU, Army and Tulane might all have to lose games for the Ragin' Cajuns to have a CFP shot, but having the right record is step one.
Of course, the Cajuns indeed aren't blowing teams out, and we've already seen quite a few plot twists in the Sun Belt race. If or when UL slips up, somewhere between two and five teams might still have a chance to storm the gates. JMU is the highest-ranked team in the conference, but two October upset losses made a trip to the conference title game unlikely.
Biggest remaining G5 games: Tulane at Navy (Nov. 16), Army vs. Notre Dame (Nov. 23), Western Kentucky at Liberty (Nov. 23), Sam Houston at Jacksonville State (Nov. 23), Marshall at James Madison (Nov. 30), Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky (Nov. 30), Liberty at Sam Houston (Nov. 30).
Conference USA probably has the highest likelihood of a roller-coaster finish, but Boise State and Army remain the biggest stories in the homestretch.