There's only one poll that matters now.
After 10 weeks of results, the 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal its first of six rankings at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday (ESPN). For the first time, teams will know where they stand in the historic 12-team playoff race heading into the final weeks of their schedule.
On Saturday, the conference races gained some clarity, with Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana distancing themselves from the rest of the Big Ten, Miami on track for the ACC championship game and Colorado and Iowa State looking up at undefeated BYU in the Big 12 standings after the Cyclones and Kansas State suffered upsets.
How far will Penn State fall after its home loss to Ohio State? Can undefeated Indiana overcome one of the weakest schedules in the country with its dominant play? And who will be the committee's top one-loss team?
Here's a look at the weekly prediction of what the top 12 might look like on Tuesday. Remember, this is NOT a projection of what it will look like on Selection Day. Rather, it's a snapshot of who's in the driver's seat now, based on what they have done to this point.
The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from this ranking as well. The top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.
Projecting the top 12
1. Oregon Ducks (9-0)
Why they could be here: The Ducks' Oct. 12 win against Ohio State is one of the best in the country, especially after the Buckeyes won at Penn State on Saturday. And the Week 2 win against Boise State also separates Oregon from other contenders, along with four road wins, including Saturday in Ann Arbor. The Ducks, led by Heisman-contending quarterback Dillon Gabriel, are No. 11 in the country with a points margin of 19.4 per game. They're No. 10 in the country, allowing 15.63 points per game, which gives Oregon what the committee could deem the best combination of eye test and résumé.
Why they could be lower: It's unlikely the committee would put the Ducks behind any one-loss teams at this time, and their résumé is better than the remaining undefeated contenders. The head-to-head will also keep them ahead of Ohio State.
Need to know: Ohio State beating Penn State helped Oregon in another way, giving the Ducks an added cushion should they lose in the Big Ten championship game to the Buckeyes. If Oregon finishes as a one-loss Big Ten runner-up -- and Ohio State and Boise State win their respective leagues -- the Ducks would be able to claim regular-season wins against two conference champions. That's the kind of résumé that would guarantee Oregon an at-large bid and a first-round home game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 at Wisconsin
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1)
Why they could be here: Saturday's 20-13 win at Penn State, which should still be a top-10 team in the committee's first ranking, will help the Buckeyes make a case to be ranked ahead of Georgia. The question will be if Ohio State's win at Penn State trumps Georgia's win at Texas in the eyes of the committee. They will also consider the Buckeyes' one-point loss at Oregon, which has a strong case for No. 1, as a better loss than Georgia's loss to Alabama. The head-to-head loss to Oregon will keep Ohio State below the Ducks.
Why they could be lower: Georgia also has the convincing, season-opening win against Clemson in Atlanta, which had looked better each week until Saturday's loss to Louisville. Georgia has two wins against ranked opponents while Ohio State has one -- and it didn't look great in its 21-17 home win against Nebraska.
Need to know: If Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana all finish with one conference loss (and undefeated Oregon clinches a spot in the Big Ten championship game), the Big Ten tiebreaker is the combined head-to-head among tied teams. Ohio State would have gone 2-0 against Penn State and Indiana in that scenario and earned the spot against Oregon in the Big Ten title game. If the Buckeyes were to lose to Oregon for a second time and finish as Big Ten runner-up, they would still have a strong playoff case as a two-loss team, but the better scenario for the Big Ten if those two played again would be for Ohio State to win because then Oregon could claim a regular-season win against the Big Ten champs -- a very strong case in the committee meeting room.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 vs. Indiana
3. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs avoided a scare against Florida, needing the fourth quarter to win after quarterback Carson Beck threw three interceptions. Their struggles against Florida's third-string quarterback after a bye week happened on the same day Ohio State added its first statement win to its résumé. Of the three teams -- Oregon, Ohio State and Georgia -- the Bulldogs' opponents have a significantly lower winning percentage (.581), ranking No. 47 overall. Both Ohio State's (.696) and Oregon's (.640) opponents rank in the top 20. Ohio State and Oregon also have held a slight edge in points scored and allowed.
Why they could be higher: The committee could be more impressed by Georgia's wins against Clemson and at Texas, plus would acknowledge a close road loss at Alabama.
Need to know: Unlike some other contenders, Georgia still has opportunities to impress the committee with wins against ranked opponents when it matters the most -- November. If the Bulldogs can run the table and beat Ole Miss and Tennessee along the way, they will have one of the best résumés in the country -- even if they finish as a two-loss SEC runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 vs. Tennessee
4. Miami Hurricanes (9-0)
Why they could be here: The Canes went from trailing by 11 to winning by 22 points against Duke, scoring at least 50 points for the fifth time this season. Miami continues to avoid trap games and find ways to win, and the dynamic offense, which is No. 1 in points per game and No. 2 in the country in efficiency, is led by a Heisman contender in quarterback Cam Ward. The committee has historically held undefeated teams in high regard, though there are ample examples of unblemished teams looking up at one-loss contenders. Miami's offense continues to separate it from teams below it here.
Why they could be lower: Miami's schedule is No. 47 and the Canes don't have any wins against ranked opponents -- and some games have been close, like three straight wins against Virginia Tech, Cal and Louisville. It will be interesting to see how closely Miami and undefeated BYU are ranked on Tuesday. Miami entered Week 10 at No. 2 in ESPN's Strength of Record metric and BYU was No. 3. BYU has wins at SMU and K-State. How the committee regards both of their opponents will help answer this debate between the Big 12 and ACC leaders.
Need to know: ESPN Analytics gives Miami at least a 75% chance to win each of its remaining games, and if the Canes run the table, they'll give themselves a cushion in the ACC championship game. If Miami finishes as a one-loss ACC runner-up, that's the best chance for the ACC to get two teams into the playoff. If the ACC has a two-loss runner-up, though, it's chances will drop drastically because there will be other two-loss teams with better résumés.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 9 at Georgia Tech.
5. Texas Longhorns (7-1)
Why they could be here: Wins against Michigan, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt won't exactly wow the committee -- it's possible none of them are ranked on Tuesday -- but they're all above .500 and the Longhorns' lone loss is to Georgia. Texas is also No. 2 in the country in defensive efficiency, trailing only Tennessee.
Why they could be lower: Texas enters the first ranking off a bye, and with little to brag about in recent weeks. The Longhorns were fortunate to escape Vanderbilt with a 27-24 win following the double-digit home loss to Georgia. Texas gave up four sacks and had 10 penalties for 107 yards against the Commodores.
Need to know: The Longhorns will likely face only one more ranked opponent during the regular season -- rival Texas A&M. If they finish with two losses and don't play in the SEC championship game, the head-to-head losses to the Aggies and Bulldogs could knock the Longhorns out if there are other two-loss contenders with better wins. On the flip side, a win at Texas A&M would help the Longhorns on Selection Day if they finish as a two-loss SEC runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Texas A&M
6. BYU Cougars (8-0)
Why they could be here: BYU came off its bye ranked No. 3 in the country in ESPN's Strength of Record metric, which gives the average playoff contender a 17% chance to achieve the same undefeated record against the same opponents. Wins against SMU and Kansas State help separate the Cougars from other contenders, along with four road wins -- albeit against some struggling teams like UCF. They're also ranked in the top 21 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies.
Why they could be lower: BYU hasn't played an opponent the caliber of Ohio State, which handed the Nittany Lions their first loss. The committee will also point out BYU's win against FCS Southern Illinois and a 1-7 Wyoming team.
Need to know: Arizona State is the only remaining opponent above .500 BYU will face during the regular season. How high the committee ranks BYU on Tuesday will give a little bit of insight as to how secure BYU's place in the playoff is if it loses a game and doesn't win the conference. If the Cougars finish as a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, will their schedule stack up with other contenders?
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 at Arizona State
7. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1)
Why they could be here: Penn State had opportunities to beat Ohio State at home, but the Buckeyes were better and faster. It wasn't pretty, but it was at least competitive and not a lopsided loss. The Nittany Lions don't have much on the rest of their schedule to help compensate for it. Four road wins are against teams that each have at least three losses.
Why they could be lower: Penn State's best win is against Illinois, and it didn't help PSU that the Illini lost to Minnesota on Saturday, giving them their third loss of the season. One of PSU's wins is against 0-8 Kent State, and both of its other nonconference opponents (West Virginia and Bowling Green) have four losses each.
Need to know: Penn State doesn't play Oregon or Indiana, so it just missed its best chance to impress the selection committee and now it needs help to get into the Big Ten championship game. The most likely scenario is PSU competing for an at-large bid and a first-round home game if it's seeded 5-8. The Nittany Lions won't face another ranked opponent during the regular season, so it would help them this month to earn convincing wins.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 at Minnesota
8. Tennessee Volunteers (7-1)
Why they could be here: The Vols avoided an upset at home against Kentucky, and the committee will like their win against Alabama -- and their defense. Tennessee's scoring defense is No. 3 at 11.5 points per game, ahead of Oregon and Georgia and a hair above Ohio State (12 PPG). The close road loss to Arkansas isn't as bad as Notre Dame's loss, and the Vols have better wins than the teams ranked below. Not since September, though, against a weak nonconference schedule has Tennessee asserted itself with a convincing win.
Why they could be lower: Boise State has a better loss (by a field goal at Oregon), and even in their best win (against Alabama), the Vols showed vulnerabilities with turnovers and penalties. They also needed overtime to beat a four-loss Florida team and both Oklahoma and NC State are also four-loss opponents now.
Need to know: ESPN Analytics gives Tennessee at least an 80% chance to win each of its remaining games -- except Nov. 16 at Georgia, where the Dawgs have a 59.4% chance to win. If Tennessee finishes as a two-loss team, it could be in trouble in the committee meeting room, where the winner of the Alabama-LSU game could have a better résumé. If Alabama wins, though, that could help the Vols if they honor that head-to-head.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 at Georgia.
9. Boise State Broncos (7-1)
Why they could be here: The Broncos' 37-34 loss at Oregon on Sept. 7 is one of the best losses in the country -- and yes, losses are as important as wins in the committee meeting room. But Boise State also has a 21-point win against a 7-1 Washington State team, and the Friday night win at UNLV that put the Broncos in the lead in the Mountain West Conference. They've also got four road wins and a Heisman contender in running back Ashton Jeanty leading the nation's No. 3 scoring offense (45.7 points per game). Those traits are comparable to Miami's -- and the committee's past playoff contenders. And like Miami, Boise State is beating its opponents by an average of at least 20 points. The Broncos are also still leading the nation in sacks (38).
Why they could be lower: Boise State doesn't have any wins against ranked opponents, and they've got an FCS win against Portland State. Utah State, Hawai'i and San Diego State are all sub-.500.
Need to know: If Boise State is ranked ahead of the Big 12 or ACC champion on Selection Day and finishes as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions, it will earn a first-round bye. Don't assume that the four first-round byes go to Power 4 champions. If Boise State finishes with only the loss to Oregon and the ACC or Big 12 champion has two losses, that's a possibility.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 at San Jose State
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1)
Why they could be here: Notre Dame got a lot of help during its bye week when Iowa State, Kansas State, Clemson and Texas A&M all lost. The loss to Northern Illinois is still holding the Irish back some, but the committee will recognize their improvement -- particularly on offense -- since that day. The Irish dominated Navy, but the committee would respect a neutral-site win against a team that was previously undefeated.
Why they could be lower: Indiana is undefeated, has been a more productive team offensively and is a complete team overall -- albeit one that has done so against lesser competition.
Need to know: If Notre Dame finishes 11-1, it would be surprising to see the Irish excluded from the playoff -- unless the committee ranks them No. 12 and they are bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. Because the Irish are independent and can't earn a bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions, their best-case scenario is earning one of the 5-8 seeds to host a first-round home game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at USC
11. Indiana Hoosiers (9-0)
Why they could be here: The undefeated Hoosiers have been dominant against everyone they've played. They are No. 2 in the country with 46.6 points per game -- ahead of Oregon, Ohio State and Georgia -- while ranking No. 7 in holding opponents to 13.67 points per game. Nobody in the country is winning by a larger margin (32.9 points per game). The most glaring difference, though, is in Indiana's opponents' winning percentage, which ranks No. 104 in the country at .484. IU's schedule to this point ranks No. 106, but the Hoosiers are No. 3 in the country in ESPN's Game Control metric. The committee will have to decide if Indiana's convincing wins are enough to compensate for one of the worst schedules in the country to date.
Why they could be lower: The schedule will be a huge sticking point for the committee. Western Illinois is a 3-6 FCS team. Five of the opponents have at least five losses. None of the teams are ranked, and only Nebraska (5-4) has a winning record, barely.
Need to know: The schedule won't matter if Indiana wins the Big Ten, as the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the field. To get there, though, IU has to beat Ohio State on Nov. 23 in Columbus. If Indiana loses that game and is competing for an at-large bid, the committee could rank two-loss teams ahead of IU because of the Hoosiers' weak schedule.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 at Ohio State
12. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2)
Why they could be here: The Tide is clinging on for dear life and a huge beneficiary of teams above them losing on Saturday night during their bye week. The win against Georgia is still one of the best in the country, though, and this just in: Alabama lost to a now bowl-eligible Vanderbilt team. The Tide actually has a better win (Georgia) and better loss (Vanderbilt) than one-loss Notre Dame, which is part of the reason why the two-loss Tide is one spot ahead of the Irish in ESPN's Strength of Record metric. If the committee does have a two-loss team in its first ranking, it could also consider LSU, but it didn't help the Tigers that the team they just lost to -- Texas A&M -- lost at South Carolina.
Why they could be higher: It would be hard for the committee to justify a two-loss team ahead of any undefeated teams at this point, but they might be able to make a case to rank the Tide ahead of the Irish.
Need to know: Saturday's game at LSU is likely a playoff elimination game for the loser, who will have three losses and a critical head-to-head result in the committee meeting room. The winner, though, will have one of the better two-loss résumés of that group of contenders.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at LSU
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 3 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 4 BYU (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 20 and 21
No. 12 Alabama at No. 5 Ohio State
No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Texas
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Penn State
No. 9 Boise State (Mountain West champ) at No. 8 Tennessee
Quarterfinal games
At the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Alabama/No. 5 Ohio State winner vs. No. 4 BYU
No. 11 Indiana/No. 6 Texas winner vs. No. 3 Miami
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Penn State winner vs. No. 2 Georgia
No. 9 Boise State/No. 8 Tennessee winners vs. No. 1 Oregon