College football Week 10 buzz: Who will be the last unbeaten Power 4 team?

Happy Halloween and welcome to Week 10. May your weekend be filled with trick plays (think BYU's double-snap), touchdown treats and haunted houses that can accommodate 107,000 of your closest friends.

November will separate the true national championship challengers from the teams dressed up in contender costumes. Eight teams enter the month undefeated and 15 others carry only one loss, including heavyweights such as Georgia, Texas, Ohio State and Clemson. Races within supersized conferences are also beginning the stretch run. Texas A&M sits alone atop the wild SEC, while the Big Ten and Big 12 both have multiple undefeated teams.

All eyes will be on Happy Valley as No. 3 Penn State hosts No. 4 Ohio State in the first matchup of top-five teams at Beaver Stadium since 1999 (!). Other notable games include Georgia, two weeks removed from its Texas takedown, taking on an improving Florida team in Jacksonville; Pitt and Indiana putting their perfect records on the line against SMU and Michigan State, respectively; top-ranked Oregon traveling to Michigan Stadium; and Clemson seeking a 9-0 all-time mark against Louisville.

College football insiders Heather Dinich and Adam Rittenberg have been talking to sources to get their reactions and the storylines to watch in Week 10.

Jump to a section:
Which conference is the toughest?
Is Penn State-Ohio State an elimination game?
Who will be the last unbeaten?
Billy Napier's future
Emptying the notebook

Which has been the toughest conference this season?

Dinich: As much of a difference as Indiana has made adding to the overall depth of the Big Ten, it has to be the SEC -- where even Vanderbilt is now a tough out, and Texas A&M can absolutely lose at South Carolina on Saturday. Half of the teams ranked in the top 14 of ESPN's strength of record metric are from the SEC, with Georgia at No. 1. That means that the average playoff contender would have just a 14.6% chance of achieving the same 6-1 record against the same opponents. Essentially, it's harder to do what Georgia has done than what any other undefeated team has accomplished against their respective schedule. Even two-loss teams Alabama and LSU are ranked ahead of one-loss Notre Dame and one-loss Ohio State in strength of record. The Big Ten has some good teams -- the SEC just has more.

Rittenberg: I keep coming back to the SEC because there are fewer weeks off where the top teams face little to no danger of being upset. Part of that is because the SEC has a glut of very good teams as opposed to one or two world-beaters. "That's our league a little bit, outside of Georgia and Texas," an SEC coach told me before Week 9, when Texas had a hard time pulling away at Vanderbilt, which already has a win against Alabama on its home field. The Big Ten might have a stronger group at the very top with Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana, but there's a fairly significant drop-off after the Hoosiers. Also, the questions some are still asking about the Hoosiers because of their schedule, which hasn't included a ranked opponent, likely wouldn't be there if IU was in the SEC.

Is Ohio State-Penn State a Big Ten title elimination game?

Rittenberg: It might be for Ohio State, which essentially would be 1.5 games behind both Oregon and Penn State. The Buckeyes are the only Big Ten contender that faces Indiana, a win that would help their CFP profile, but would need Oregon and Penn State to stumble twice. Looking at Penn State's remaining schedule -- Washington (home), Purdue (road), Minnesota (road), Maryland (home) -- the chance of multiple losses seems unlikely, although Minnesota is playing much better in recent weeks. Ohio State hasn't been in the league title game since 2020, and a four-year lull would almost seem unfathomable. There's urgency around this game, and it's also personal for Pennsylvania natives like quarterback Will Howard (Downington) and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles (Philadelphia).

"It's everything, man, it's what you work for," Knowles told me. "I grew up watching, there were three channels on TV back then and all you got was an hour recap on Sunday of Penn State games, the Joe Paterno show. I've always had great respect for the program."

Dinich: Yes for Ohio State -- they'd need some real help to get back in it -- but wouldn't go that far if Penn State loses, even though that head-to-head could be critical. This is the closest thing to a must-win for the Buckeyes because of the implications that go beyond the Big Ten race. A second loss would put Ohio State in a precarious playoff position. It's not that they can't get into the 12-team field with two losses -- it's that they could lose a debate with other two-loss teams that have better résumés. Right now, two-loss teams Alabama and LSU are already ranked higher in ESPN's strength of record metric. Those teams play each other, but if one of them can run the table, the committee could rank them above a two-loss Ohio State team because the Buckeyes' best wins would be against Iowa, Indiana and Michigan. And Indiana would be their only ranked win of the season.

Rittenberg: Even the smartest IU grad I know probably didn't predict a late-season Indiana win providing a critical boost to Ohio State's CFP profile when the season kicked off, but that's where we are. Ohio State's season largely hinged on the two road opportunities and the Michigan game. But Michigan already has three losses and plays undefeated teams (Oregon and Indiana) the next two weeks. Penn State's urgency seems less CFP/Big Ten-related and more centered around coach James Franklin, whose record against Ohio State (1-9) and against AP top 10 opponents (3-17) will be repeated until things start to shift. I liked Franklin's directness before the season in outlining how 10 wins isn't good enough for Penn State. He knows how much is riding on Saturday's performance while not dwelling on the past, saying, "We're excited for the opportunity. That's what we're focused on, the Ohio State team from this year and the Penn State team from this year, and what we have to do to find a way to get a win."

Dinich: Ohio State's players took their ugly win against Nebraska as a wake-up call. They had a good week of practice, but everyone in Columbus knows this is going to be a good old-fashioned Big Ten brawl with a close score -- probably in the 20s for both teams. They have to get into a rhythm on first downs, and they absolutely have to get explosive plays against the Nittany Lions -- something they couldn't do against Nebraska. They have to come out with a sense of urgency -- not wait until the fourth quarter.

Knowles is tired of talking about all of it -- and wants to see the Buckeyes go do it. Defensively, he said the key will be limiting Penn State's big plays, and getting off the field on third down. Knowles said the Nittany Lions are "100%" different with first-year offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki calling the plays -- and now possibly backup quarterback Beau Pribula starting in place of Allar.

"I think it creates more offense for them than less," Knowles said. "He's a good runner and when he got to throw the ball, he did well. So I think it creates even more challenges and gives them a bigger arsenal."

Who will be the last Power 4 unbeaten?

Dinich: Miami should go 4-0 in November, and if it doesn't, it will likely have to win the ACC to get into the playoff. Saturday's home game against Duke isn't a gimme -- and road trips to Georgia Tech and Syracuse won't be easy, either -- but if Miami is truly one of the best teams in the country, it should beat the unranked teams remaining on its schedule. According to ESPN Analytics, Miami has the best chance (37.5%) of the undefeated teams to win out -- and the fifth-best chance overall. The Canes also have at least a 75% chance to win each of their remaining games, with the most difficult being Nov. 9 at Georgia Tech (75.9%). If Miami stumbles, though -- and loses to Clemson in the ACC championship game, assuming they meet there -- other two-loss contenders will likely have stronger résumés.

Rittenberg: Oregon's schedule is also set up fairly well from a matchup standpoint, although two long trips to the Midwest -- Saturday at Michigan and Nov. 16 at Wisconsin -- could become a bit tricky. I saw the Ducks play at Purdue, just six days after their emotional win over Ohio State. Although the competition wasn't good, the Ducks showed no hangover, stringing together touchdown drives of 75, 80 and 99 yards to mount a 21-0 lead. They have outscored Purdue and Illinois 56-3 in the first half the past two weeks. As an Oregon source pointed out to me, "We were like the first-half kings. We've just got to put a complete game together for once." It will be interesting to see what happens if Oregon trails early against Michigan or Wisconsin, but I love the completeness and focus of this Ducks team. Oregon also will be getting even stronger when end Jordan Burch (knee) and tight end Terrance Ferguson (appendectomy) return.

What is the mood around Florida and coach Billy Napier entering the Georgia game?

Rittenberg: The mood has improved considerably following Florida's second open week, mainly because of what the team did during its first. Napier told me that he did an extensive self-scout "into what our issues were" and divided the roster into two teams, which he had never done before. The Gators packed practice with situational periods and kept score throughout. The Wednesday workout during the open week was "the best practice I've ever been a part of in 20 years of football," Napier said. Florida has carried over the structure to its gameweek practices, which have led to better results on Saturdays. The Gators are 2-1 since the open date, with an overtime loss at No. 7 Tennessee.

"The best thing you do is be in an environment where practice is as much like the game as possible," Napier said. "Those were very competitive days. They had to go execute and do your job, and you're letting people down if you don't. This group's made of the right stuff, and that allowed them to work their way through it and think about what they needed to do to improve."

Florida now begins the most challenging part of its schedule against Georgia. Napier's future could hinge on the continued development of young players like quarterback DJ Lagway and running back Jadan Baugh, who last week against Kentucky became the first all-true freshman offensive backfield to start a game in team history. Lagway has five completions of 40 yards or more in his first two starts and has impressed Napier with his deep-ball accuracy. Baugh, at 227 pounds, had five rushing touchdowns on 22 carries against Kentucky.

"He's a big back, that's number one, kind of fits the profile that we're looking for, and he has the ability to make people miss, fall forward, " Napier said "He is a good route-runner, a good matchup player in the throw game. Overall, he's gained more confidence. Much like DJ, he'll get a little bit better with experience."

Dinich: One opposing assistant coach told me that Florida is playing better now that Lagway is starting after Graham Mertz suffered a season-ending injury. Lagway makes the Gators more difficult to defend. "He made us nervous because of the things he could do with his feet," the source said. "Seeing him manage the offense, it looks as though they've done a good job of slowing the process down for him and he's handled it good. They struck it right." Still, everyone knows a huge test is looming against Georgia. And that's just the beginning of a November gauntlet that also includes Texas, LSU and Ole Miss. "If they are competitive through all of this, he'll probably be OK," the source said, speculating on Napier's job security. "If the bottom falls out, there's going to be some issues." Given how much the Gators have had to rely on young players at key positions, including Baugh against Kentucky -- and they were tasked this season with playing the nation's most difficult schedule -- it only seems fair to let this situation play out a little more before throwing dirt on Napier, and my guess is that's what this administration does.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week/what's the best thing you've heard?

Rittenberg:

• SMU coach Rhett Lashlee's job is, in some ways, easier this week. When the 20th-ranked Mustangs review film of their win over Duke, they will see their six turnovers --versus none for the Blue Devils -- and how they miraculously overcame the margin to win on the road. When they watch No. 18 Pitt, they will see a team that recorded three pick-sixes in the first half alone and intercepted Kyle McCord a staggering five times in a 41-13 win.

  "It'll get our guys' attention," Lashlee told me. "If we had an inexperienced team or a cavalier team, I'd be worried about it. We've got a team that's 18-4 in their last 22 games, so they know how to win. They know that we snatched victory from the jaws of defeat several times [against Duke], but we've got to play much better down the stretch."

  Lashlee noted that SMU "actually dominated the game" against Duke, other than the turnovers. SMU had 469 yards, converted half of its third-down chances and allowed only two tackles for loss and no sacks. Playing their first full game without standout tight end RJ Maryland, the Mustangs got a big lift from Roderick Daniels Jr., who moved from running back to slot receiver midway through the Duke game and accounted for the team's two longest plays, a 72-yard receptions and an 81-yard touchdown.

  "Roderick's really a renaissance man," Lashlee said. "We joked that the only position he hasn't played is offensive line. That's just who he is. Hadn't taken a rep in a month, and he goes out and knows the game plan, knows what to do, and makes two of the biggest plays in the game. So his versatility helps us, especially right now when we're more beat up."

  Lashlee thinks quarterback Kevin Jennings will bounce back from his five turnovers against Duke, saying, "You could tell postgame he's really down on himself, but he was great [Sunday]. I think he's excited about the opportunity to bounce back this weekend against a great Pitt team."

• Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht returns to the field this week against Texas Tech after a wild stat line against UCF: 43.5% completions, 274 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 2 interceptions, 97 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns. Becht and the Cyclones found a way to rally against UCF, but the sophomore quarterback will look to regain his standard efficiency this week against Texas Tech.

  "He doesn't take an ego hit on it at all with the interceptions or the bad throws," Cyclones offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser told me. "He wants to watch 'em all together and break 'em down and figure out how he could be the best version of himself. So it starts with the fundamental piece for him, and when he does miss, why? Is it a coverage thing that he's seeing? Is he slow to work through his progression in a certain scheme? Are you better off taking one of the progressions out of it? Is a fake that we're doing on a play action kind of slowing the progression down?"

  Mouser called Becht "as competitive as anybody I've ever coached" and similar to predecessor Brock Purdy both in their drive and willingness to improve from mistakes. Becht also has plenty of support from players like wide receiver Jaylin Noel, who has a reception in 39 straight games.

  "I've been with coach [Matt] Campbell for all nine years here, just offensively, he might be the best leader we've had," Mouser said. "He's mature beyond his years. I almost feel like when scouts come and they ask me about him, I'm overselling him, but there's just not a bad thing to say. He's very driven, he's very determined and he's very competitive. He understands the why behind all of our plays. He's not just running routes."

• Napier credited Florida's defensive staff and players for sticking together through a bumpy start, as the Gators have significantly improved against the pass and on third down in their last three games. Florida's depth has shown up as the defense features six players with a forced fumble, six with an interception and 14 with at least one-half sack. Napier identified linebacker Shemar James, safety Jordan Castell and cornerback Devin Moore as some of the leaders but noted the unit's robust rotations that keep players fresh.

  "We've got height, length, athleticism on the edges," Napier said. "Our inside 'backers are good players, we've improved the rush, and the coverage is working better together. We're fitting the runs better, and we're obviously tackling better. We've got some takeaways as of late, that's always a big piece of the puzzle. We're definitely going to need some takeaways to win this one Saturday."

  Florida comes off of its first three-interception performance since 2020 and now faces Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, who was picked off three times in his last appearance at Texas and has eight interceptions in his last four games.

  "With Georgia, the pedigree, the talent, that roster and certainly what they've done the last couple of years, it's a good measuring stick," Napier said.

• Ohio State's defense entered the season with plenty of headliners, from defensive linemen Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau and Tyleik Williams to cornerback Denzel Burke to safety Lathan Ransom to safety transfer Caleb Downs from Alabama. Linebacker Cody Simon was a recognizable name around the program, but not necessarily a core piece after starting just 15 times in 44 career appearances.

  But Simon has become an integral part of Ohio State's defense, ranking second with 5.5 tackles for loss and third in overall tackles with 31. When coach Ryan Day was asked Tuesday about returning players who had become team leaders, he immediately mentioned Simon, calling him "excellent" this fall. Simon had a team-high eight tackles in last week's win over Nebraska.

Dinich:

• According to ESPN Analytics, Army has a 94.8% chance to beat Air Force on Saturday in a game that will help determine the winner of the Commander In Chief trophy. Air Force is 1-6, including a loss to Navy.

  Army is approaching this game like it's the Super Bowl.

  "The Commander In Chief's Trophy is by far the most important tangible goal that we have in our program," said Army coach Jeff Monken. "We don't like to put a lot of emphasis on those kinds of goals, but it just kind of hangs out there in the abyss that we've got to win the Commander In Chief's trophy. It's a big football game. It's the biggest game we've had to this point in the season, and I think it will be the toughest game to win so far this season because of the emotion."

  Controlling emotions against Air Force will be critical, Monken said, so his team won't make unforced errors and uncharacteristic mistakes. While there has been plenty of attention on both Army and Navy this season, which are competing for the American Athletic Conference championship, Monken said he's got a veteran team that has handled the spotlight well.

  "We've got a lot of older guys playing and frankly have handled it really well - very professional about it," he said. "And I keep my shoe in their ass pretty much all the time, so I don't let them wear their arms out patting themselves on the back."

  Monken said that while some players and staff watched Notre Dame beat rival Navy 51-14 on Saturday, it's not something they've talked about as a team -- yet.

  "That's a game that we will watch in detail when we play Notre Dame here in a couple of weeks," he said. "Hopefully we'll learn some lessons from that game when we watch it and share it with the players, and watch that game again in December when we get ready for the Army-Navy game."

• When Miami hosts Duke (6-2) on Saturday, it will be just the second opponent with a winning record the Canes have faced in a month -- and the Blue Devils are still highly motivated coming off an overtime loss to SMU last week.

  "We haven't played perfectly by any stretch, but we have given ourselves a chance to win every game," coach Manny Diaz said. "... I applaud our competitive spirits that are showing up every week, which is not easy to do in college football. If you have a competitive spirit and you try to improve on your execution week in and week out, and I do think we're still making strides on that. I think our passing game took a step forward last week, and it'll need to take another step this week."

  Diaz said one of the biggest keys to the game will be explosive plays -- both earning them against a defense that's hard to drive the ball against, and limiting the big plays Miami's staff calls and that quarterback Cam Ward has been able to manufacture off-script. Diaz said quarterback Maalik Murphy played his best game last week in the loss to SMU against what has been statistically one of the top three defenses in the ACC.

  "We regained our threat down the field," he said.

  Diaz, a Miami native whose father once served as the city's mayor, was 21-15 in three years as Miami's head coach before he was fired in December, 2021. Diaz said he's "very at peace" with returning there this week as Duke's head coach.

  "There's still a handful of guys on the team that were there when we were there and they're all doing really well," he said. "Same thing some really great staff members. It's more of the faces than the uniforms. I think things are going great for us here at Duke. I've been blessed with two great years at Penn State in the interim and I'm in a very peaceful place."

• Pop quiz: What team has lost to Alabama and LSU by a combined five points?

  Answer: South Carolina.

  As the Gamecocks prepare to host a surging Texas A&M team on Saturday, they do so as a 4-3 team that could easily be a 6-1 team. If South Carolina can pull off the upset, it would change the playoff picture -- and the SEC race -- as the Aggies are the only SEC team left that is undefeated in conference play.Their only loss is to Notre Dame.

  South Carolina coach Shane Beamer said the Gamecocks had "plenty of opportunities" to beat Alabama and LSU -- but they have to play "cleaner football" to win those types of games.

  "LSU game, we had way too many penalties," he said. "Alabama game, we missed some opportunities. For us, it's just capitalizing on opportunities."

  Beamer said getting off to a fast start will be critical, and if you're coming to see a 42-35 shootout, "I don't think this is going to be the game for you."

  "We know it'll be absolutely insane in our stadium on Saturday night," he said. "I think the last time A&M came here two years ago on a Saturday night, I believe they had like seven false start penalties because they couldn't hear. So being able to get off to a good start, keep our crowd in it is huge. And this is an old-school, SEC slobber-knocker type. We pride ourselves on being physical and running the ball and stopping the run."

  Beamer said the Aggies have "the most talented defensive line in our conference, by far."

  "Just the fact that they have multiple guys at the defensive tackle and defensive end position that can rush the passer," he said. "A lot of teams they have one defensive end and maybe one really good defensive tackle, or they have two really good tackles but nobody really scares you on the edge as a pass rusher, and that's not the case with A&M."